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‘Miss Me Yet?’ PPP says… almost.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 14th, 2010 at 11:10 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Any other Democratic pollster I’d mock, but PPP’s Tom Jensen has earned a certain forbearance:

Americans are now pretty evenly divided about whether they would rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush in the White House. 48% prefer Obama while 46% say they would rather have the old President back.

[snip]

These numbers suggest some peril for Democrats in making Bush a focus of their messaging this fall.

To put it mildly.

The full numbers are here, and they are bad, bad, bad news for the Democrats across the board: the President’s underwater in his personal popularity, there’s an outright majority against the health care plan, and a larger majority favors its repeal.  I’ll let Unlikely Voter crunch this poll further, but to untrained eyes it doesn’t look like PPP is precisely on track to get back into the Left’s good graces via the time-honored practice of telling them what they want to hear. In fact, about the only good news for the President here is that independents still prefer him to George W Bush.

Well.  Maybe next month.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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COMMENTS

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  • redneck_hippie

    Meaning terrific, not imaginary. This just shows that once we have a credible alternative, The One (termer) will return to being what he’s been for years. A former adjunct instructor in Alinskyism.

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    The divide has been further entrenched by Barack Hussein Obama.

  • spim

    I just kept laughing to myself during the last election when they would continually, non-stop bash Bush.

    “You do understand that he isn’t running, and that he *can’t* run again, don’t you??!”

  • redneck_hippie

    would be crossed south of 40%.

    PPP is making me think the Obama Rubicon is crossed south of (Bush) 43.

    DOOOOOOOOOOOM

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s close but we haven’t caught up yet

  • redneck_hippie

    margin of error, not Lane

  • wannabeanncoulter

    From the poll:

    87% of GOP voters now say they would prefer Bush, a number a good deal higher than Bush’s approval rating within his party toward the tail end of his Presidency. Democrats predictably go for Obama by an 86/10 margin, and independents lean toward him as well by a 49/37 spread.

    Doesn’t this just mean that Republicans prefer Bush over Obama, who they were never going to vote for anyway? And doesn’t that just mean that Republican anger at Bush has abated since he left office?

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …we’re going to be taking back this fall, news that Republicans have realized the difference between Not Actually Bad, Compared to What Came After and Good God, What Crack Were We Smoking? is great.

    Not that anybody except the most dense believed all that ‘once the GOP lost a seat it was lost forever’ Democratic agitprop, anyway. :)

  • lordindra3

    Besides the annointed one, Obama and Carter, Bush is the worst president we have ever had, so what? Bush is the exact reason we have Obama and a horrible liberal congress. He is the reason, I will never give Bush any love for that reason alone.

    Please, someone tell me what exactly made Bush a Conservative? A Conservative among the ranks of Reagan, Goldwater and William F. Buckley?!

    Lets see, Bush expanded the power of the federal government more than Clinton BY FAR, increased debt incrueing spending TREMENDOUSLY, started 1 unnecessary war (Afghanistan was a just war) for a unconstitutional reason, created bank bailouts, tripled the size of the evil department of education and of course the budget busting senior drug plan!

    If any disagrees with me, please tell me one single thing that makes Bush a real conservatives and different from Obama (Obama is just Bush on steroids!) and DONT say tax cuts because tax cuts with massive spending and government growth does not work.

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    this man will be a dangerous force in America. His agitation and demagoguery will not stop upon leaving office.

  • redneck_hippie

    We shouldn’t confuse a person’s resume with his core beliefs. Once a rabble rouser, always one. We have the Jimmeh and Algore model to instruct us on the before and after white house mentality. This guy is doing everything possible to campaign for a global monarchy for himself in the future. I’d much rather he be at the UN than our White House.

  • JamesSmith130

    enuff said

  • Tbone

    Congrats on you efficiency.

    Now, run back to Kos.

  • Achance
  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    …look like timid little wallflowers. His effort to transform this country will not be stopped by an election. His Presidential power might be removed, but he will not fade away.

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    … but that said, I don’t think anyone could dispute the notion that President Bush loves America.

    Right now, I would give almost anything to have that one, vital prerequisite filled above all others. I want my President to love my country. Thinking about the fact that the President of the United States hates the United States brings rage and sorrow to my heart in equal measure.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • IJB
  • usedtobelib

    of Ramussen’s daily poll. I know these are only snaphots, but this morning’s it’sa -8, pretty high considering where he’s been, withRasmussen pointing out that his liberal base has finally hardened behind him, this even though the health care law still remains very unpopular.

    I guess I might misunderstand the term “base”; either that or my anecdotal experiences are misleading me. I find it hard to believe that there are enough “liberal base likely voters” in this country that he could achieve a 42% “strongly approve” thumbs up.

    My close friends and former colleagues, all but one, are what I would term “liberal base” voters. However, as details of the hc law emerged, they have begun expressing increasing skepticism, not enough to cause them, were the election today, to vote for a GOP opponent, but enough to prevent them from giving Obama a “strongly approve” in a poll, I am convinced. Furthermore, they are quite bothered by the spending, and one or two had their eyebrows raised by, of all things, the President’s obvious phoniess about his love of the Sox and baseball.

    In short, I guess I am wondering who these “base” voters are to the tune of 42% of the polling sample. I mean, there are only so many Michael Moores, Jeaneane Garofolos in the country, right? I live in a heavily dem district and I just don’t see any enthusiasm for the guy anymore. At best, these dem voters might give him a “somewhat support” in a poll.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Remind me to throw you a party, with cake and ice cream.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Are we looking at the same thing? I’m here on Rasmussen’s daily tracking.

    I am mystified as to how this little c-sucker can scrape together 50% at this point. But I’m not all that surprised about the 32% strong approval.

  • IJB

    Polls show that about 40% of voters are registered Democrats.

    Polls also show that Obama has about 80-90% Approval among registered/self-identified Democrats (which just shows how *radical* self-identified Democrats have become… anyway…) – this means that, just from his “partisan Base”, Obama will get 36% Approval “floor” from partisan Democrats alone.

    Then you have to factor in Left-Leaning Independents. If Dems make up 40% of the electorate, and the GOP makes up about 33%, it means the remaining 27% of the electorate are “Independents”.

    But not all Independents are created equal – roughly a third of Independents actually “lean-Republican” (e.g. they’re libertarians who don’t want to register as R, etc.), roughly a third are *Left-Leaning* Independents (e.g. people who think the Democrat Party is “too moderate” or “too corporate” and so refuse to register as Dems), and the remaining rough third are truly “non-partisan”, ‘swing in the wind’ Indie types.

    Obama has also nailed up pretty good support among Left-Leaning Independents these days – assuming he has about 70% Approval among the 1/3 of Independents who are ‘Left-Leaning’, that adds roughly another 6% on to his Approval rating: 36 + 6 = 42%, the exact number you quoted.

    (Incidentally, the remaining 4-6% of Obama’s Approval rating comes from the truly ‘non-partisan’ Independents – I’m assuming among them, Obama still has approx. 50% approval…)

    Anyway, the Left-Leaning Independents may desert Obama is he does something which majorly torques off the “progressives’ and the Nutroots (e.g. a SCOTUS nominee who’s “too moderate” for example).

    Meanwhile, his Approval among *partisan* Dems may deteriorate if the economy continues to dive.

    Suffice it to say, I don’t think we’ve seen the true “bottom” in Obama’s Approval ratings. But the D’s passing of Health Care has stabilized his ratings among his ‘Base’ supporters, and have put his Approval ratings in ‘stasis’, at least for now.

  • lordindra3

    Sure, that makes sense.

  • mbecker908

    (and FWIW I can’t believe there are two more of you) thanks for asking.

    The thing that made Bush a real, true conservative – and I know you know this – is that only a “real & true” conservative could have pulled off the planning for 911 like he did. It was a work of art.

  • lordindra3

    Look, most Republicans in the house and Senate now agree that Iraq was a mistake. Even Tom Coburn acknowledges that! Iraq war has become dogma, like Global Warming has been for the left. People never question it. Look, it was pointless. Our boys died for a silly reason. It should have been declared because we win every declared war and lose every undeclared war. You say, the War Powers Act makes it constitutional, but the War Powers Act was desiged for IMMEDIATE danger, like a nuclear threat, then of course we dont have the time for the congress to debate it. But again, I agree that I want a President to love his country.

  • lordindra3

    I dont get what you mean? Do you mean, how he reacted for 911? I guess that would make a good leader, but not necessarily a good Conservative. How does that make him a Conservative. Im a Conservative because I believe in limited federal Government as espoused by the great Berry Goldwater. Bush believed in expanding federal powers. I think people get Conservatism and Republican partisanship very much confused.

  • lordindra3

    The Kos huh? I think thats where you belong because Im a paleo Conservative of the Old and True Right. You come from a line of Democrats so please go back where you belong.

  • usedtobelib

    It’s 32%,not 42%, but I am having a tough time with that number for “strongly support” simply because it’s highly unlikely my friends have voted for a non-Dem in any state or national election since they became voters, period–and they are not “happy” with the guy, on several levels. I see them as his base.

  • redneck_hippie

    so the 2% could mean either one is ahead in a hypothetical finding in a hypothetical contest. The near-identity of the number on either side is hugely significant for Obama’s reelection prospects. Whenever I see within the margin of error, I think tossup. Has anyone posted this at Kos yet? Heh.

  • http://www.scragged.com petrarch

    Jimmy Carter has become a laughingstock, and his blatant anti-Semitism has I think taken a lot of the sheen off of his side. Obama is far more blatant and far more extreme in his beliefs. The louder he preaches for them, the more the blowback will be. I look forward to his ex-Presidency.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    “Look, most Republicans in the house and Senate now agree that Iraq was a mistake. ”

    I almost decided to make you name all of them, but that would just have delayed the endgame. Sorry that you have a problem with saving Kurds, Marsh Arabs – and heck, Iraqis – Sparky.

    Well, no, I’m not sorry at all.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The MoE is an expression of variance, but the peaks of the curves are still as listed, which means it’s not a tie.

    It may be close, very close, but it’s not a tie.

  • CincoSolas_del_Bronx
  • greyhound31

    at the world series gave me goosebumps. obama ‘s girly attempts are embarrasing to the country. and girls.

  • Bill S
    • The Dems that were pissed at Obama are not pissed any more…because healthcare passed. So, as IJB implies – the base has been placated, for now.
    • More ominously – what the Dems hoped would happen, IS happening: people are already forgetting about healthcare rationing. No, WE aren’t, but those who are not “inside politics” followers ARE.

    This is why the temperature must stay turned up. We have to keep pounding on what a travesty and screw job it is. I can see that the volume has already subsided substantially.

  • Tbone

    Gees Beck, no wonder you get so much done! LOL

  • E Pluribus Unum

    It makes no logical sense that there would be such a sizeable “stubborn supporters” contingent.

    But I think two factors serve to (largely ) explain it. First, 97% of voting Black Americans voted for Obama, and from everything I see out there politically, a hefty 90% of them remain reflexively supportive of him, no matter what. No. Matter. What. They are not budging. And this bloc represents something like 11% of voting America. Right off the batt that is 11 of these 32%.

    Second thing: the same major national media that CONSTANTLY barraged George W Bush, relentlessly, 24×7, 365 days a year, were able to beat down support for Iraq, were able to convince Americans in 2005-2006, after 3 years of economic prosperity with under 5% unemployment, that we were still in the 2001-2003 recession, THIS same national media is the 24×7 non-stop Obama love-train. It’s like a 40mph tailwind.

    It’s just gonna be a bitch to get his overall poll numbers under 40, and his “strongly support” under 25%.

  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    …Jemmeh Cahtuh isn’t a “clean, articulate, storybook, Black man with no Negro dialect” upon which the entire basket of Leftist eggs has been placed either.

    Obama will continue to be dangerous even if he is ran out of office by a landslide. The desire by the media, the entertainment industry, academia, international Leftism, and the rest of the Leftist establishment to continue to treat this charlatan with unearned dignity will continue unabated for as long as he lives.

    They will wait with bated breath for his every utterance, and if the next President is Republican, his word will be established gospel before it falls upon their ears.

  • mbecker908

    Thankfully for all of us.

  • robdacosta

    I don’t think so about this issue.

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  • 6eorge Jetson

    When you want to make up the four touchdown lead that authoritarian Muslim extremists have over broad-based, democratic decision-making governments in the Middle East, you have to do it one opportunity at a time.

    Bush’s domestic spending and expansion of govt deserves strong criticism. (Obama deserves a multiple greater.) But regardless of the reasoning for entering the Iraqi war, the end result will pay dividends for generations to come. No, Bush didn’t get there cleanly. Most difficult military campaigns don’t. But his steadfastness through the surge and the end result (as long as the Donks don’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory) will be heralded for years to come.