« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

PA-12: Burns/Critz 44/41 (PPP).

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 20th, 2010 at 12:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

How awkward for the Democrats.

Buoyed by an electorate that is exceptionally sour on national Democrats, Republican Tim Burns has a 44-41 lead over Democrat Mark Critz in the special election to replace John Murtha in the House.

[snip]

…Burns is winning over 22% of the Democratic vote compared to Critz’s 10% of the Republican vote. Burns also has a 51-31 lead with independents, although there are fewer of them in this district than most.

Critz is currently pretending to be against the health care debacle, just like Bill Owens over in NY-23 did before Owens started warming the seat.  Critz will, of course, not be permitted to take that stance, assuming of course that he somehow manages to take the seat…

Moe Lane

Have you contributed to the Tim Burns moneybomb yet?

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Tags: , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • TxCon

    would vote for Mark Critz?

    I shouldn’t be stunned by this since I live in TX-17, who is full of GOPers who vote for Chet Edwards.

  • Kyle-MI

    Very GOP candidate, especially those in red and purple districts, should be hammering this home. Burns – and other GOP candidates – should be running commercials on the Owens flip-flop and all the other ugly shenanigans that took place to pass Obamacare. No matter what they say, every Democrat is a Pelosi puppet. If it matters, they will vote the way Pelosi dictates.

  • proudgop

    for Murtha and Murtha voted for health care bill so we are to believe he had zero influence in convincing Murtha to vote no?

    Still tough race because there are so many Dems but we can pull it off

    Donate to Burns. Critz is being feasted tonight by Pelosi in DC

  • legacyrepublican

    I did an analysis of the FL-19 special election. Even though this solidly D district went D again, the results showed impending doom for the Democratic party.

    Conservatives gained 8% points in a D+23 district. That means that any D+8 or less seat is open to takeover.

    That makes your donation to Burns all the more important. He lives in a D+8 district and is in the lead.

    I donated to the money bomb, so should you! Let’s take this country back. Our message is winning like never before!

    Thank you Erik the Redstate, you have guided my donations and made them all the more effective.

  • Good_Captain

    Recognizing that the district is comprised of generally moderate conservative Democrats from a largely by-gone era, the 3 point lead by Burns disappints me. The statistics provided above in the blog only make sense to me if this is an overwhelmingly Democratic district. Losing 2 out of every 10 Democrats while gaining only 1 in 10 Republicans (the clear minority party) and while losing among Indies by a 20 point margin would generally spell doom in most so-called competitive districts.

  • proudgop

    Murtha was representing this district and he was no moderate

    Burns needs to run on health care, coal, and Pelosi

  • tngal

    so much so they’ve pumped in over $200, 000 through yesterday to this race. While the Hawaii 01- gets nada. From cqpolitics..

    “A victory in Hawaii would be the feel-good story of the 2010 election cycle for Republicans, right up there with Sen. Scott Brown?s win in Massachusetts. But after the GOP end zone dances and the Democratic finger pointing, it would signify very little.”

    snip

    “But the Pennsylvania race is important. A Republican victory there would radiate out to the rest of the state and region ? and could truly set the tone for November.”
    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003643831

    Notice, not a lot help in that FL-19 or the Hawaii-01, nor are they going after Gov Paterson to set an election date. to fill NY-29. No, they see this one race as having a domino effect and they want it bad.

    To not be election season, things are pretty busy.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    And I can’t figure out what the heck Paterson is thinking by giving us this talking point about Massa’s seat.

  • zr2x4

    they can’t win an election when Obama campaigns how are they going to win it by sending in Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. Interesting.

  • IJB

    Let’s stick with your swing of +8%R to the GOP from FL-19.

    (I’ll note, however, that the swing in the two CA special House elections was more like +10%R, and I have reason to believe that Deutch’s homebase in Palm Beach masked the true swing to the GOP by a couple percent in FL-19…)

    Anyway, the national Congressional vote in 2008 was 54%D-46%R (roughly).

    A district with a Cook PVI of D+4 voted 4% more D than the “national average” in 2008 – i.e. in this district, the 2008 D/R Congressional vote would have been 58%D-42%R.

    Thus a swing of +8%R would only potentially turn around a district that’s D+4 or better in 2010 – specifically, a +8%R swing in a D+4 district gets you to a 50% D/50% R result this year.

    So a D+8 district with a +8%R swing would only get the D/R vote margin down to 54% D/46% R in a 2010 election, based on 2008 results.

    Now these are all averages, and there may be local effects, and the swing may be more than +8%R. But picking up anything more than a D+5 district in November is likely going to require something extraordinary…

  • IJB

    You’re right – Dems have a large registration edge in this district.

    No matter. Here’s why things are looking good:

    1) Burns is picking up twice as many cross-party votes as his opponent.

    2) Burns is winning Indies something like 2-to-1.

    3) In a race like this, in the current political environment, undecideds are *much* more likely to break to Burns than to the D.

    4) PPP is a *Dem* polling outfit, and while they are generally fair, if a *D polling outfit* is showing Burns ahead, you can take it to the bank that he’s ahead.

    Points 1) and 2) alone look very, very much like what happened in VA, NJ, and MA, and you know how those turned out!

    Reading the tea leaves, I’d personally rate this race as “Leans Republican” based on the PPP poll.

    If Rasmussen polls this district and comes up with similar results, I think we can almost take this one to the bank.

    And this is a *pickup*, the first one for our side in the current special election cycle! :)

  • IJB

    I suspect HI is one of those places where the local candidate may actually *prefer* no help from the national party.

    So I don’t necessarily read anything in to that…

  • Raven

    I am contributing to His cash reserves because what I am hearing out of Burns’s mouth is distasteful.

  • Raven

    I guess my money didn’t help him much.

    I still prefer him over Burns, though.

  • Raven

    The State establishment chose Burns. Makes perfect sense. Same guys who gave us Jubelirer for 30 years has now given us Burns.
    “Because he can write his own checks.”
    Sounds like someone else we’re having trouble with for the national legislature…

    I hope I make it onto the committee so I can have a bigger hand in stopping garbage like this.

  • legacyrepublican

    LJB, my point isn’t that we are going to win all the D+8 seats. I just think that they are now in the range of being contestable and winnable. And that is a very hopeful change of MO.

    I believe that once a race enters can get into the zone of being within 4% of 50% in an area that has never seen someone get that close before, the tea party effect will take hold and we will see upside down changes like in the Scott Brown race.

    Plus, the general sense of being demoralized by being so far behind is not going to be as much of an issue as it has been in past elections in these districts. The tea party people know that they have to commit to an all hands on deck philosophy.

  • proudgop

    The Dems have almost 3:1 fundraising advantage

    I really wish the NRCC would start fundraising better the NRSC is doing excellent job

  • redtillimdead

    Its a good move politically for them. Hawaii is very wary of mainland outsiders. They don’t want the mainland playing in their politics. Let the DCCC continues to run “negative” ads saying Djou supports, *gasp*, tax credits and laying off teachers and increasing class sizes in school districts that are struggling to pay the bills. Sounds real negative huh? I think the biggest effect those ads will have is all the headlines in Hawaiian papers saying “Mainland Group Ad Against Djou False”

  • redtillimdead

    He is NOT the candidate in the special election. He is a candidate in the primary. The primary is on the same date. Burns is the nominee vs Critz. Russell is no friend of the conservative movement. If he was, he would drop out and help the true conservative win the general election, rather than taking his resources and votes. He plans on writing himself in for the special election. If you think that is good for the country, please explain why.

  • redtillimdead

    Not the party, The party held an open door convention to select him. The state LAW states that there is no primary for a special election and that the party must hold a district convention. The delegates spoke and chose Burns. By a HUGE margin.