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What Gallup *didn’t* do with their enthusiasm poll.

And they *should* have done this, too.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 27th, 2010 at 07:24 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Gallup just published a poll on voter enthusiasm, broken down by age. The main point – younger voters are showing fairly typical enthusiasm levels towards the 2010 elections (i.e., low ones) – is interesting (and entertaining), but there’s another important bit that did not get particularly addressed. And it’s an even more entertaining point.

Gallup provided one chart showing how voter preferences in the 2010 midterms broke down by age, with the following results:

Age % Dem % Rep
18 to 29 51 39
30 to 49 44 46
50 to 64 45 47
65+ 41 50

…and while Gallup accurately noted that the numbers for under-30 year olds are better for the Democrats than for any other age group the polling organization somehow completely neglected to make any sort of historical comparison.  It might have been interesting, for example, if Gallup had compared these numbers to its survey of the 2008 exit polling data…

Age Obama McCain
Under 30 years 61 39
30 to 49 years 53 47
50 to 64 years 54 46
65 and older 46 54
50 and older 51 49

Yes. Very interesting.  For one thing, Gallup would have been able to suggest that there was some indication that GOP voter enthusiasm remains more or less unchecked from 2010, while Democratic enthusiasm has declined across the board.  And that the Democrats’ problem is not that the youth vote is less enthusiastic about voting against Republican candidates: it’s that their support from voters between 30 and 64 has apparently taken similar nosedives.  And that over-65 voters appear even more ready to vote Republican this go-round.  All of these things would have made for an improved article… which would have challenged Gallup’s assumption that the Democrats are correct to concentrate on the 2010 youth vote in the first place.

That’s starting to look like a dubious assumption.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

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  • libertyatstake

    GOP may be able to win in 2010 by running *against* Dems – but they better give us something to vote *for* by 2012 or we’ll still be in the same mess.

    http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
    [For a light hearted take on our present peril]

  • nessa

    …does anyone at the GOP HQ get the hint? The same old same old isn’t attracting voters. They still have the same loyal voters they had but where are the voters who are leaving the dems going? Maybe they’ll show up and vote for the GOP, I’d rather not risk that and start attracting them now with a fresh, principled Conservative message.

  • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com Beaglescout

    Steele is playing prevent defense just like McCain did. That never wins. It only delays the victory of the other side.

  • http://impudent.blognation.us/blog kyle8

    You mean Micheal Steele? It is amazing to me that when we had the choice of Ken Blackwell the GOP suits chose that loose cannon instead. They never run out of ways to shoot themselves in the foot do they?

  • acat

    Umm, why are we pointing out that the Dems are lookin’ for love in the wrong place?

    Yeah, it’s good news – opponent making a mistake and all that – but … why not just quietly let them make the mistake?

    Mew

  • streiff

    and believe that?

    What did Obama run on other than “I’m not Bush?”

    We can run in 2012 by being the anti-Obama even if we happen to win Congress in 2010.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What did Pelosi run on other than “Republicans are gay pedophiles?”

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    WE are GOP HQ.

    We just have to get off our duffs and take the levers of power.

    Give. Become a precinct committeeman. If the Ronulans can do it, so can we.

  • txgho1911

    At every opportunity we should get the LEFT on audio and video saying what they really mean and feel.
    When they are pandering to a crowd with patronizing facts or more fiction like HCR. Let them. More people are waking every day to the reality.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Too many on our side start to *believe* the stuff the left is saying about how we’re doomed because “demographics” will kill us.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Accurate information, in this case, is that Democratic enthusiasm in an off-year election is going according to the standard model, while Republican enthusiasm is not. That has as many implications for conservative activists as it does for liberal ones.

  • Gandalf

    n/t

  • michiganwolverine

    Just goes to show how the msm continues to drive their own message. When will they learn that the voters are much smarter and research focused in 2010?

    Thanks for digging up that 2008 data. Looks like Obama has a lot of work to do to gain back voters for his party in 2010 and himself in 2012.

  • Tbone

    back into their column. The fact that Dems are losing and Republicans aren’t gaining should be getting some people fired.

  • Achance

    There’s tons of stimulus money stacked up to be spent and much more already spent at the federal level just transferred to the states and appropriated for the fiscal year beginning July 1. The Fed has been recruiting madly for all sorts of jobs but doesn’t seem to be hiring for many of them yet other than the Census jobs they used to make breathless statements about how the job market was improving.

    I believe come summer and the campaign season, the Fed will pour money out, hire lots of people, and the the MSM will breathlessly report that “Happy Days Are Here Again.” That leaves us in the position of being the naysayers, a position the squishes don’t like even when they might know you’re right. I see gains in November, but not overwhelming one simply because the Government can manipulate both the economy and the perception of the economy during this election season and a huge segment of the population just doesn’t want to think about all that bad stuff and still likes the cool black dude.

  • BA Cyclone

    Personally I think the previously-idle voter types are truly looking for more meat in their voter sandwich than “we are not Democrats”.

    I think if you really want to capture the voter tidal wave and elect the maximum number of conservatives, the Republicans need to do a “little bit” to articulate the conservative alternatives. Tell them the *what* we can do, rather than risk some of the voter angst move into getting fed up and stay home.

    Merely providing an avenue for angst, IMO is like trying to have a chocolate bar for supper. It might tie us over and even net a few wins, but we really need a bit of protein somewhere to fully capture this movement thru 2012.

    The anti-Bush mantra might have gotten Democrats the WH and huge congressional majorities, but I’d rather follow a plan that we can possibly assure a *sustainable* governing body of conservatives.

  • BA Cyclone

    Personally I think the previously-idle voter types are truly looking for more meat in their voter sandwich than “we are not Democrats”.

    I think if you really want to capture the voter tidal wave and elect the maximum number of conservatives, the Republicans need to do a “little bit” to articulate the conservative alternatives. Tell them the *what* we can do, rather than risk some of the voter angst move into getting fed up and stay home.

    Merely providing an avenue for angst, IMO is like trying to have a chocolate bar for supper. It might tie us over and even net a few wins, but we really need a bit of protein somewhere to fully capture this movement thru 2012.

    The anti-Bush mantra might have gotten Democrats the WH and huge congressional majorities, but I’d rather follow a plan that we can possibly assure a *sustainable* governing body of conservatives.

  • partyof1

    Obama ran on “I’m not Bush”.

    And how has that been working out for him?

    Are you alive and awake in 2010?

  • momma

    n/t

  • The_Gadfly

    You are right, Republicans can “win” on the anti-Big 0 vote. But that is no longer enough. We have a hard slog ahead of us. To do that, we need a governing majority. That isn’t some mathematical number, it’s what Reagan had. It’s a philosophical basis, agreed to by the American people, on which to move forward with a governing agenda. “I’m not Obama” doesn’t get you that.

  • The_Gadfly

    of what all the cool people are thinking. He doesn’t think much of “the cool black dude.” It is one of the few things that has me hopeful about the next election.

  • NoDoze

    the Dems will manipulate the jobs and economic news, and this will effect the elections.

    How can conservatives counter this? Not through the MSM. To some degree on the internet, but will that be enough?

    Maybe some well-placed billboards with clear messages, along with TV and radio ads that point out the deceptions.

    “Government jobs are paid for by US”

  • acat

    .. is older than me .. and I remember sitting in Carter’s gas station lines.

    The demographics argument falls on its’ face because it assumes that thirtysomethings will continue to think like teenagers and twentysomethings…. It’s never worked, and unless we change the nature of thirtysomethings, it never will change.

    Mew

  • Tbone

    They will try but it is hard to convince someone they have a job when they don’t.

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