There are two things that I would like you to understand about this graphic from the latest WaPo/ABC tracking poll (the Sunday 49/48 Romney/Obama, if I understand it correctly):
For those who can’t see the picture, the WaPo has been asking Republicans why they were going to vote for Romney. In July 2012 only 36% of respondents said that they were voting for Romney, while 59% said that they were voting against Obama; today, the number is almost completely flipped. 58% of Republican voters are voting for Romney; only 36% are voting against Obama. As mentioned before, there are two important points about this.
- This represents a dramatic positive shift in the enthusiasm, motivation, and energy found in base Republican voters in the remaining nine days or so of the election. This means that Republican voters are now more likely to vote, more likely to volunteer, more likely to donate, and more likely to shrug off hindrances to doing any of the previous three things than they were several months ago.
- The Obama campaign was not, and is not, prepared for this development.
Oh, I’m sure that the Obama campaign would contest that last statement, but then they’re hardly going to admit that they believed their own nonsense, are they? Fortunately, it’s far too late for the Democrats to make us grudgingly support Mitt Romney; that ship has, as they say, sailed.