Just the one poll, of course - and note that it was done by a Democratic pollster, so don't assume that 'scaring the heebie-jeebies out of the Left' isn't part of the business model - but it does seem to fit. It does not really surprise me that the Democrats can only count on 37% of its 2012 youth vote in 2014; as Aaron Blake noted, the youth vote dropped precipitously in 2010, too. Midterm elections are dominated by voting blocs that make the effort to vote; the young are typically not one of those voting blocs.
And then there's this:
Democrats are facing an enthusiasm gap with young Americans, according to a new survey of millennials, a result that echoes surveys of the wider national population.
The poll, conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics, shows 44 percent of 2012 Mitt Romney voters aged 18-29 saying they’ll definitely vote this fall, and 35 percent of 2012 Barack Obama voters saying the same.
This will not mean that Republicans will win the youth vote in 2014: undoubtedly more young voters will turn out for Obama. But what the Democrats need to do is to recreate not the 2012 electorate, but the 2008 one - particularly in the Senate, given the number of Romney state seats held by Democrats. And these numbers are not consistent with that kind of performance. Lastly: given that it's now mid-May - my, how time flies! - when were the Democrats planning to actually start building up young voter enthusiasm?
Sorry, rhetorical question. What do young voters have to be enthusiastic about, these days?
Moe Lane (crosspost)