Assuming that the Graham-Everett-Wheeler Many-Worlds hypothesis for resolving quantum mechanics is correct, in some alternate universe right now I am posting this Tweet with an angry I told you so.
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) December 2, 2014
...because in that world 'independent' Greg Orman actually won his Senate race, and alternate-me would have already started counting down to the date where Orman would reveal that he was a Democrat after all. Which, indeed, the this-universe Greg Orman might as well admit it now anyway, given that we can actually see the receipt for his purchase and everything.
But I digress. Fortunately for the cause of truth in advertising - barely - Orman actually lost that race by... how much was that, again? My, my: 10.8 points. That's a pretty big spread to justify [mc_name name='Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)' chamber='senate' mcid='R000146' ] spending over $151K at the last minute. That spread does not, in fact, justify such a spend at all. One might wonder how the hilariously-in-retrospect named 'Senate Majority PAC' would explain this particular poor decision making, except that it's the Beltway. Nobody ever explains their failures; they just sort of shrug, and ask for more money. And then, bizarrely, somebody gives it to them. I'm starting to wonder whether the swamp that we built our capital on had some sort of hallucinogenic spores that have survived, or something...
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: I just spent a fascinating hour reading up on analyses of the Roberts-Orman fight in Kansas; I have yet to find one that is much more complex than Man, those polls were messed up, and no mistake. To be fair about this, those polls were messed up; my own opinion on the race (to wit, that Greg Orman didn't stand a chance) was based pretty strongly on my sheer refusal to believe that Kansas voters were as dumb as the Democratic party leadership traditionally thinks. Which is to say, my opinion was based on pretty much nothing that I could quantify. And, sure, I look great when I'm right - but when I'm wrong... hoo, boy.
On the specific issue, however... the polling would probably have been more accurate if the pollsters had admitted what Kansas voters had already figured out: that Greg Orman was the Democrat in that race. True, if that had happened then the Democratic party leadership would have started screaming; but, contrary to what is apparently popular Beltway belief, pollsters are not put on this earth to do agitprop for the Democratic party. Or, sure, the Republican party, either.