Cook: State Republican parties gave national GOP 9 seats for 2012.
Cook Political Report has more or less formalized their 2012 redistricting scorecard; their final score is a gain of one Republican seat, based solely on redistricting. Cook notes that this total actually represents about 10 to 15 seats being fortified for the GOP, given that the majority of legislators who benefited from redistricting were Republicans. This will no doubt infuriate Democrats, but then: elections matter. | Read More »
Rubber meeting the road: the 2010 Senate situation.
Charlie Cook is bearish on the thought of the GOP retaking the Senate this year – which, I should note, is a large step up from, say January 2009: back then they were talking about how the Democrats might increase their existing majority in 2010. Charlie sets up the current situation as follows: Three open seats currently in the hands of Democrats seem pretty likely | Read More »
Meet fourteen worrying Democrats.
List extrapolated from here from Reid Wilson: Candidate District PVI Cook Rating Mike Ross AR-04 R+7 Likely Dem Allan Boyd FL-02 R+6 Likely Dem Alan Grayson FL-08 R+2 Toss-Up Suzanne Kosmas FL-24 R+4 Lean Dem Sanford Bishop GA-02 D+1 Safe Dem Bill Foster IL-14 R+1 Lean Dem Frank Kratovil MD-01 R+13 Toss-Up Ike Skelton MO-04 R+14 Lean Dem Earl Pomeroy ND-AL R+10 Lean Dem Dina | Read More »
Old Narrative: DCCC cash advantage = No GOP gains.
New narrative: The DCCC’s cash advantage is, at the moment, an important circuit breaker for 2010. For all the factors that point to big GOP House gains, it is the cash disparity could mean the difference between a bad year for Democrats and a really bad year. At this rate, by June we’ll be hearing how the DCCC’s cash advantage will at least keep the | Read More »
Looking at the Cook Competitive Race Chart.
Looking at the Cook Political Report’s latest competitive race chart is in itself informative – the short version is that of the top 108 competitive races, the following ratios apply: Dem GOP Likely D 45 0 Leans D 23 1 Toss-up D 12 0 Toss-up R 0 3 Leans R 1 8 Likely R 0 15 Total 81 27 …but there’s some interesting things that | Read More »