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On Quinnipiac and Ohio

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 1st, 2010 at 12:04 PM  | 

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In looking at recent polling, I said I needed more data before I could write off Quinnipiac’s results as meaningless. Real Clear Politics has much more data to look at than I have, thanks to having been doing this for much longer, and they see a trend in Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling that leans toward the Democrats in every race in that state.

Food for thought, to be sure.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Kyle-MI

    Here are the trends for Ohio Gov.
    http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2010/polls.php?fips=39

    In Feb. Rasmussen had Kasich at 47 and in March at 49. In Feb. Quinnipiac had him at 39 and in March at 38. In March PPP had him at 42. Unfortunately PPP did not have Feb. numbers to compare with.

    Those are some really large differences. Somebody is wildly off.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What I find most interesting is the Senate race data, which RCP highlighted, where Q is the only one showing the Democrats ahead, at all.

  • penguin2

    Though I felt a knot in my stomach if the overall trend is showing Dem support. My next question is ‘how in the world?” But as I read the details, it looks like the Dem base is in there strong, but not the Independents. And it seems like they noted that there was a dominance of Quinnipiac polls in the data?

    The discrepancy is certainly a question mark.

  • Kyle-MI

    http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?fips=39&class=3

    Rasmussen has Portman ahead in both Feb and Mar but in the low 40′s. Quinnipiac actually had Portman leading in Feb but just at 40 with a lot of undecideds, and then has him trailing in Mar at 37. I can believe all of those differences are due to polling techniques and some statistical uncertainty. Frankly, I do not consider a candidate to be in the lead unless they are close to or above 50.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    “Frankly, I do not consider a candidate to be in the lead unless they are close to or above 50.”

    I’m interested in knowing the math behind this.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    When reading a Q poll in Ohio, just be aware of it.

  • TxCon

    in states like Ohio to do the common sense thing. That is why I’m trying to temper any excitement about November.

  • erp617

    I hope I’m wrong, but from now until November, the media and dems can conspire to do a lot of damage to conservatives. Scott Brown sneaked up on them. They won’t let that happen again.

    Every Republican candidate will be palinized. They have the stimulus money and union thugs on our payroll to get the goods. We have donations from individuals being squandered by the leadership on chartered planes and limos, not to mention adult entertainment.

    If we pull it off, there will need to be divine intervention.

  • jdw4america

    a miracle is not out the question.

    As for polling, I had to take three classes in statistics to get my stupid degree, I know how you can spin anything with them. I trust nothing I hear from “unbiased” sources. Polls are used more often to influence votes than to reflect them.

    Take heart. The PEOPLE KNOW what barry and the others have done. That’s why they’re pulling everything they can think of to demoralize us and make us think we can’t win.

    Don’t fall for it! Volunteer. Donate. Speak out. WE WILL WIN

  • texasgalt
  • GOPlady

    I’m not surprized that the polls are showing this. ALL the media in Ohio, and I mean, ALL the media were swooning over the passage of HRC. Their message was , Whoose, we narrowly dodged the bullet on missing out on this great HCR from our wonderful president but we defeated those vile evil repuglican’ts.
    The independents who originally voted for O are digging their heels in.
    November is a long time off. Some of the candidates suck. The Ohio GOP went out of their way to put partisan hacks on the ballot, thumbing their noses at excellant conservative candidates like Sandra O’Brien for SOS.
    We finally have a level playing field but Jennifer Brenner is doing some hokey things with accepting ballots and changing the primary rules. We must learn to be relentless.

  • golfermike

    Yes definately.

    It’s not going to be an easy road ahead for the Ohio GOP in November. The problem part and parcel rests on the Kevin DeWine. The moves he made so his brother Mike DeWine could run unopposed for Ohio Attorney General have left a very bad taste in conservative voters mouths. We are tired of RINOs and Mike DeWine is definitely a RINO. Even the Buckeye Firearms Asso. endorses the Democrat. Kevin DeWine has to go.

    It is unfortunate the electorate in Ohio has to deal with this. Especially with Jenifer Brunner’s directive to challenge every voter who registers Republican before the primaries. New registrations in Ohio are running 5 to 1 in Republicans favor; however, I would not put it past people like Kevin DeWine to blow it between now and November. The job of getting good people elected will fall on the people, the Ohio GOP be damned.

  • jdw4america

    Nobody gits away with calling me that! :)

  • Kyle-MI

    There is not really math behind it, and of course it is a very broad generalization. My reasoning is based on the number of undecideds. Unless you have a lot more detailed information, it is tricky to predict which way they will go. The very fact that they are undecided at this point means that they are more unpredictable. All the predictable people are already doing what we expect them to.

    Of course, in the end it is better to be ahead then behind even if your support is in the low 40′s.

  • gwalt

    I’m pulling this from memory but I’d like to hear it again:

    Rove said in Nov 2008 around 6M Evangelicals stayed home, 600,000 in Ohio alone. Another 2M Vets stayed home (I know it sounds crazy with McCain and all) .

    The Evangelicals are hard to track. They don’t do surveys, they don’t speak up necessarily, but they do vote. Rove reached them in 2004 and they were the deciding factor in an election that had Bob Shrum calling John F’in Kerry “Mr. President”.

    And I used to conduct focus groups and have worked for research firms. You can easily get a bad batch/sample.

    Finally, the pollsters are notorious at over-sampling Dems. I think this one had 34% Dems and 24% Rep?

    Ok–finally, finally—Zogby had Martha Chokely winning MA.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think you’re misreading what a poll is. Polls don’t predict. They describe where the race is AT THIS MOMENT.

    You’re right that with lots of undecideds, a poll may not be a good predictor. But polls never were predictors to begin with unless they’re taken the day before/day of the election.

  • Ausonius

    A small majority of voters here fell for BIG BRObama’s snake oil, but when you keep your ears open, you hear a great deal of disappointment and skepticism and – yes – good old anger here among Buckeyes.

    To be sure, the media is very biased: last week a local CBS station in Columbus ran a completely over-the-top story about the marvels of Hell-th Care and how it was the next best thing to the Second Coming, or Peanut Butter and Jelly, or both!

    But from my admittedly unscientific observations in large cities and small towns from Toledo to Cincinnati, I find the Quinnipiac poll complete fantasy.

  • cabanon

    There’s no way Dems are gaining ground!

  • indyjohn

    that polls can be deliberately manipulated to achieve a desired result. Many polls are taken with the express purpose of driving news or making news. A poll can be created to encourage Democrats and discourage Republicans. This poll so conveniently fits the media template that I would not take it too seriously.

  • tdpwells

    What do you mean, “registers Republican?” There’s no affiliation ticky box on the voter registration form, it’s whether or not you vote in a party’s primary that then determines your affiliation.

    I’m an Ohio voter who just updated my registration due to an address change (I am now in Kilroy’s district, heheh), but I’ve always been listed as unaffiliated because I never voted in a primary (though I will be this May for the first time).

  • willbuck

    I think Republicans would sweep the House and gain some ground in the Senate if elections were held right now. But November is a long way away in political terms, and Americans have a very short memory.

    All the Dems need is some positive job growth before then and Republicans are done for! Especially with so many Republicans coming out and saying “repeal and replace” rather than repeal and start over. It makes Americans think that their opposition was pure politics all along and that health care reform really ain’t all that bad.

    Ah well.

  • texasgalt

    You posted against Haley, questioning her citizenship and now you join the Debbie Downer crowd with” it’s a long way to November”.

  • texasgalt

    With regards to your message, yes they are pulling everything they can, including sending their punks to RS.

    But we are coming for them. In this, failure is not an option.

  • ocleverone

    Enough time to see their taxes go up.

    Enough time for seniors with employer provided prescription plans to understand that they will be forced to take Medicare.

    Enough for the young work force to see that their premiums will raise 17% or so.

    Enough time to see private companies hauled in front of a dog and pony Congressional inquisition.

    Shall I go on?

  • jdw4america

    blushing really hard now

  • texasgalt
  • jmstuart

    Since the Dems took over, we have been hit with one body punch after another, again and again, with no letup. Insulting allies, coddling enemies, “clinging to guns and religion”, “now is not the time for profits”, no jobs saved or created etc etc etc and the Dem poll numbers have trended down, down down. BO’s credibility is down, his true character is becoming known. Why does anybody think the erosion of support for BO and his radical policies will not continue in the next 8 month as it has been the case in the first 12?

  • wolfgang

    Quite simply, anyone Quinnipiac feels is too strongly conservative, is culled out of the sampling pool with the definition of being too strongly conservative left to the decision of the pollsters at Quinnipiac, located in a strongly blue, blue state. 60 per cent of Connecticut voters probably still believe that Barack Hussein Obama is almost “mana from Heaven”.