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Republicans need Dino Rossi for a chance at the Senate

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 12th, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

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Should the Republicans get lucky and take the Senate in November, Patty Murray’s is the kind of seat they will have to win. Washington is friendly territory for Democrats and 2010 should be no exception. However, a poll from late Friday suggests that she may be vulnerable to Dino Rossi and only to the former candidate for Governor.

I’m still so skeptical of Rasmussen’s pre-primary polling technique. In fact, I just hate these carpet-bomb polls that hit every likely matchup. I’m doubtful of their effectiveness because I suspect a degree of fatigue to set in by the end. But for what it’s worth, Rasmussen did hit the Washington Senate matchups, pitting five Republicans against the incumbent Senator Murray.

Four Republicans performed poorly, averaging a lead probability of only 16%. Don Benton pulled 40 to Murray’s 48, Clint Didier 37 to Murray 47, Chris Widener 37 to Murray 46, and Paul Akers 37 to Murray 45. Each pairing has a margin of error of 4.5.

However Rossi makes it a contest at least, taking a credible 41% lead probability with his 46-48 showing against Murray. This number is right in line with his previously shown ability to run well statewide, and I find it credible.

But Republicans must recruit him, and he must win the primary, for this seat to be competitive. And this is only one of a few options the Republicans have to take the Senate from 59-41 to 49-51, even if they sweep every close one this year.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Achance

    and a ton of money to keep the West of the mountains crowd from stealing the election. Gregoire and her administration are owned lock, stock, and barrel by the unions and they’ll count the votes until they get them “right.”

    I know Rossi could raise a good bit of money in Alaska if he took on Murray. We had him here in Juneau right after he ran for Govenor for our Lincoln Day dinner; he’s a very good speaker and a genuinely nice guy. After the dinner we took him on the Downtown Juneau bar crawl and a good time was had by all!

  • bromark

    Your country needs you. How is it possible that someone as intellectually challenged as Patty Murry could possibly be running for a 4th term?

  • johnt

    Ergo, Patty remains the favorite.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington voters are rubbing their tiny hands in glee at the prospects of tax increases,”just what the nation needs”, kind of thing. The nation being the same thing as the federal government to people who keep putting their left shoe on their right foot and who can never find their false teeth.

  • SIConservative

    To be sure, I’d love to see Rossi jump in, but those numbers are very credible for challengers, especially when they are not especially well known and in a crowded primary. The mid-40s aren’t a great place for an incumbent to be, especially a Democrat in this environment.

    I would add, though, that like Thompson, Rossi needs to fish or cut bait. The sooner he makes up his mind, the better the position we’ll be in to challenge Murray. The longer he looms over the primary field, the worse it is for those who would be left if he opts against a bid. I don’t know whether, like Thompson, he’s on an ego trip or if he’s generally undecided, but the indecision is killing valuable time.

  • proudgop

    The Dems are scared of Dino ( love the name and I am Italian) and already have site up on him

    Dino I hope runs cause he needs to start raising money to compete with Patty

    I hope Thompson and Pataki run too and then the NRSC will really have done great job of recruiting ( Rudy would of been stronger in NY though)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Either seat in fact.

  • IJB

    I’ve seen no indication that we’re likely to get anything more than 3rd tier candidates in NY, and that’s just again Gillibrand. Isn’t Schumer currently running unopposed?!…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s too bad the NRSC is more interested in defeating conservatives in primaries than in defeating Democrats in the general.

  • IJB

    I think the OR Senate race is currently flying under everyone’s radar, and I think there’s only been one poll done there, but if there’s a big enough ‘wave’ in 2010, it could even sweep OR.

    (I’m pretty convinced that the only “Safe” Dem seats this cycle are VT (Obama is still incredibly popular there, as is ObamaCare, which tells you everything about VT…) are MD (and MD only if Mikulski does in fact run)…)

  • proudgop

    so who is the Republican running against Wyden?

  • proudgop

    Pataki has been damn quiet my gut says he won’t get in

    NY filing isn’t over till july anyways. I think NY GOP wants someone who can self finance and they’d love for them to be Hispanic to boost

    Chuck is unoppsed right now but he has like 20 million in campaign war chest and is still popular in state ( doesn’t ask me how)

  • IJB

    I think one of them is supposed to be somewhat impressive from an article I read a while back, but I can’t remember which one. (Only 4 of the seven even have websites, according to Politics1, so I’m guessing most of these are perennial ‘minor’ candidates…)

    Anyway, if Wyden goes down, it’ll be less about who his opponent is, and more about strong general anti-incumbent, anti-Dem feelings in the country. That’s why it’s a “sleeper” race, but also a “long-shot”…

  • aesthete

    Guiliani and Pataki need to get off their duffers and run.

  • SIConservative

    There’s no way we take out Inouye, Schumer, or Wyden. The only people who can beat them are themselves.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • E Pluribus Unum

    Did Dino learn anything from what happened to him vs Gregoire, and does he have the killer instinct to play hard and dirty in the vote-counting game?

  • Xasteius
  • http://www.marklaiminger.org Lammo

    Last time around, Dino set up volunteer lawyers and poll watchers around the state (I was one of them here on the dry side). Sadly, it wasn’t close and they didn’t have to cheat any more than usual. I really hope he runs because we need to take our best shot at getting rid of Murray.

  • IJB

    …Barring an unforeseen ‘open’ seat circumstance.

    But Wyden and Schumer can both be beaten, under the right set of circumstances. So you’re over-generalizing…

  • 912watchdog55

    Does this thibg work?

  • theoneandonlyfinn

    With each race in “Blue” states becoming competitive.

    When Mass went Red with Scott Brown, people started seriously thinking about states like California, New York, Wisconsin, and Washington.

    Now the news out about Boxer’s crashing approval ratings and TIES with Republicans in polling puts California at a virtual tie.

    Meanwhile you have Simmons slowly creeping back up in Connecticut (Dodd’s replacement has seen his lead drop from 26pts to just 14 in two months, a la Coakley).

    If just ONE of the three- Pataki in NY, Thompson in WI, Rossi in WA, announce, I bet the rest jump in too…and then the game gets really exciting.

    With a current projection of winning ND,DE,IN,AR,NV,PA,CO,IL, and breaking the tie in California, not only does it become extremely likely that we win the Senate when these THREE more states coming into play (WA,NY,WI)…but the likely flipping of the House will go from a 45-50 vote flip to 70+ as conservatives and R-leaning indies drawn out to vote in states like California, New York, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Washington for the Senate races also vote R downticket.

  • redtillimdead

    He worked in the Reagan admin and he has money to spend, something we need against a money-machine like Gillibrand.

  • redtillimdead

    Will be Lewis and Clark professor Jim Huffman. He seems to have gotten the most support from the OR GOP

  • redtillimdead

    Also, being AG since 1991 and never having run in a competitive election in 20 yrs, he’s bound to have some skeletons in his closet. If McMahon is the nominee, she will spend 50 million to point those out. If Simmons is the nominee, he will try to, but won’t have the resources.
    CT also provides another potential pickup, if we tie it with 9 seats, I think McCain and Palin could convince Lieberman to flip.

  • SIConservative

    In the meantime, let’s treat all races equally so that no candidate or activist feels left out. Who cares if not being able to tell the difference between a winnable seat and a safe one prevents us from winning as many seats as possible?

  • SIConservative

    As you’re well aware, there were very unique circumstances surrounding that race. It was a perfect storm. There was no incumbent. It was in the middle of a specific, major debate that the Democrats were losing badly. The Democrats had a terrible candidate who ignored the race thinking she had already won. Because it was a special election, Brown had all the resources he needed. No such circumstances exist for the seats I mentioned.

  • SIConservative

    Giuliani’s not running. If Pataki runs, he’ll challenge Gillibrand. There’s nobody else who can win.

  • IJB

    If 2010 turns into a big “wave” election, with elevated GOP turnout, and depressed Dem turnout, with Indies breaking 2- or 3-to-1 for the GOP, even entrenched incumbents could be swept out.

    If you look at the history of Senate elections, it’s usually true that *all* of the close races fall of the same way. So the trick is to keep these races close to the end.

    When you look at polling for people like Feingold, Murray, Wyden and even Schumer, their numbers are mediocre for incumbents (certainly they’ll lower than they normally are). If the political situation deteriorates for Dems from here, even these guys could go down. It’s not “likely”, but it’s possible.

  • proudgop

    I wish Rell was still the candidate in CT for that seat ( she would win)

    If you asked me until last week I would said I wish Simmons was our nominee now I think why not McMahon she could spend all money and now I sorta wish Simmons runs to relaim his old house seat

  • hickorystick

    The people aren’t buying what the Dem’s are offering. Americans aren’t Communists. But the Republicans aren’t offering sensible solutions either, If Dino, or Clint Didier can start talking sense, instead of the feel good nonsense of the Dem’s, one can win. But the R’s have to cut the BS. They have to cut to the chase. What part of 14 trillion and counting don’t the People understand?

  • SIConservative

    Feingold and Murray are indeed vulnerable, though the 800lb gorillas need to make up their minds. If you want to make the case that Wyden and Schumer are vulnerable, please present some evidence. “It’s a Republican year” just doesn’t cut it. Show polling numbers and fund raising figures to support your argument. If you think we can “keep” these races close, show me that they are, because up to now, I have seen no evidence to suggest it.

  • davesinsanantonio

    Even if Rossi ran and did not win, it would force the Demrats to spend
    a ton of money here that they then would not be able to spend elsewhere. So, start convincing him to run, and then start convincing others to support, vote for, and donate to him. Then work on the voters and hope for the best. Win or lose, it will be either a good thing or a great thing.

  • davesinsanantonio

    to the end. Then, given the current anti-Demrat groundswell, a close race could easily swing for us on election day. In this kind of atmosphere, a lot of pollees will give an evasive or misleading answer, then vote for us in the election. Also, again, it forces the Dems to spend money on races they thought they had in the bag, or they don’t spend enough and we sneak in under the wire. Either way, we win and they lose. If they lose, America wins. If the race is crowded with dark horses, the Demrats may ignore it until too late. Also, many in the primary does not mean the voters won’t support the eventual candidate in the general race. Especially with today’s throw the bums out atmosphere.

  • davesinsanantonio

    Demrats keep ramming through unpopular legislation, keep talking down to the electorate or treating them as the enemy, or keep getting caught out in their lies, then nobody is “safe”! Don’t give them the election on a platter, make them fight for it. Even a dark horse can win, and many have over the years. You never know ahead of time what can happen in this kind of race. Just maybe something will come to light to turn the tide, or some twist of fate will give us the victory. If we don’t make an effort, than we not only will not win, but we don’t deserve to.

  • dudette

    but he won’t run. I dont blame im why leave his nice gig for the cesspool of D.C. I also thought Mort Zuckerman was challenging Gill or Shumer Happens.

  • Princeliberty

    Murray is running under 50% against everybody. This is exaclty the kind of race we can jump into and help the person who will be the best Senator get the candidacy off the ground. The wood is dry so from there a raging inferno can easily start.

    Rossi does not seem to have a lot of substance and I’m not into begging people into running. We should carefully look at the other folks running and get behind the best on.

  • IJB

    Marist has shown Schumer’s approval between 47-53% over the course of *this* year – those numbers are unimpressive for an incumbent Senator, and start to dip into the ‘Red Zone’ for reelection chances.

    Rasmussen shows Wyden at only 49% vs. a relatively unknown GOP opponent.

    IOW, both of these guys are beatable with their current numbers, and some breaks going our way.

    There’s your evidence…

  • hickorystick

    I’m referring to choosing a message carefully and honestly.

  • Washington_Republican

    Clint Didier could bring in some big guns since he was on the Redskin Super Bowl teams. We have seen signs for him around E WA. I bet he could bring in Steve Largent to stump for him. That right there could win him football fans on either side of the mountain.

    Besides, according to Clint, all of the GOP who have thrown in their hat are going to work for whoever wins. There is going to be a full out push to dump Murray. This woman is as dumb as a rock. We have to get rid of her. She has embarrassed us for too long of a time.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Boxer was weak with or without Brown.

    She’s weak because she’s a moron and an extremist, not because of anything Republicans have done to date.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But the other guys are 40 or below.

  • Washington_Republican

    Not in Washington, anyway. He was a conservative Congressman. He also has great respect in our state no matter his political leanings. If he would run against Murray here in our state, it would be a landslide for him. He remains that popular.

  • SIConservative

    That was a single Marist poll, not Rasmussen, and they showed him rebounding a few weeks later. Quinnipiac shows Schumer’s approval numbers at 61/26 and reelect at 53/32. Polling done by Marist, the only heads-up match-up I’ve seen involving Schumer this year, had him leading Larry Kudlow, whom many hoped would make the race, 69-24. Right now, even Gillibrand doesn’t have a serious opponent. Pataki is probably the only person at this point who is still considering and could beat her. Why would anyone take on Schumer?

    As for Wyden, I missed and was admittedly surprised by the Rasmussen poll that had him up 49-35 on Huffman. Even so, the poll was taken in the midst of the health care debate, and Wyden had a formidable $3.1 million war chest as of the end of December. Unless Huffman somehow pulled out an absolutely shocking first quarter, it’s extremely difficult to see how he puts together the resources to close that gap, especially in a blue state.

  • hickorystick

    One of the reasons is his well known work ethic. He also has always carried himself well. I would love it for Didier to get Largents support. He has gained Kemper Freeman’s support, and KF is leading his financial gathering efforts.

  • Princeliberty

    They all have how ID – so they are starting from a great position in April.
    If we get behind somebody and help them win the nomination. By then they can have decent ID and clearly bearthing down Murray’s next so the party will swing behind them and the big bucks will come in.

  • hickorystick

    When the Senate Republicans gained the majority in 2002, Rossi became chair of the Senate Ways and Means Committee that writes the state?s two year operating budget. It was in this position that Rossi was widely credited for closing a $2.7 billion budget deficit without raising taxes.[11] He passed this budget with bipartisan support,[12] gaining praise from members of both parties

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dino_Rossi

    He could use his record to make a stark contrast with National Democrat behavior. But he has to develop and edge to his message. Voters (minus state leaches) are PO’d. Whoever wins the nomination needs to go after Murray aggressively and on point.

  • Washington_Republican

    Plus he freely gave his services to the local high school football team for the past several years as Offense Coordinator. This past year, they went undefeated and won the State Championship. He is just a natural born leader.

  • Washington_Republican

    When he was running against Queen Christie this last time, his record did not help him. Even when it was shown that under the Queen we ate up a surplus, she still won.

    Unless you can gain the support of the unions in Seattle, you can’t win. He just didn’t get that done. Plus we all know there were shenanigans happening in Seattle during the past few elections. Maybe with ACORN going belly up we can have a fair election this next time.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You don’t need to make 20 more posts going on and on about your guy.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It wasn’t his fault.

    2010 is looking better, and sure enough, he’s nearly tied with Murray.

  • hickorystick

    They have seen the Obama, and it was not good. Dino could strip a lot of Classic Democrats. He could argue to the Unions that their livelihood is jeapordized by a continuing bad economy. He should make arguments in favor growth, and it’s positive impact on the construction industry. Carpenters and pipefitters supported Hillary, and panned Obama, because they knew he was death to construction. Dino having a real estate background, it should be a slam dunk. He has to make the case, and make it forcefully.
    I’m going to stick with Rossi running on his budget balancing record. As far as ACORN or local sheisters, he needs to take the Scott brown approach, and blow out his opponent. I’m not interested in finding any excuses.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    No. Rossi would be starting from great position.

    Name ID problems don’t fix themselves.

  • http://www.periodictablet.com superamerican

    Seattle is run by a bunch of utopian dreamkids who don’t have a clue, including Microsoft, Amazon and other millionaires. So Left-wind idiots, and Murray’s only one of many, get elected, reelected, and rereelected. Seattle is heading for San Francisco.

    Dino? He was a disappointment in not having the will to win; another Republican with no backbone.

    http://www.periodictablet.com

    superamerican

  • cyncurl999

    I don’t think so. There are a lot of angry voters in this state, but you’re right, a bunch of liberals too. It’s hell. People are extremely disenchanted with Gregoire (governor) – she’s been a miserable failure. Last year when our super majority democratic legislature tried to ram through the “everything but marriage” bill (gay rights) a group managed to get a referendum to the voters to repeal the bill. It faild miserably. That’s when I woke up to not getting my hopes up in this idiotic state.

  • cyncurl999

    Another fascinating thing that’s happend in the past week is that the Democrats have created attack websites against Dino Rossi (who hasn’t even said he’ll run) AND our awesome Attorney General Rob McKenna who, rumor has it, will make a run for governor in 2012. If the Dems feel this threatened that has got to be a good sign for Rossi.

  • eburke
  • proudgop

    Pataki Not Running For US Senate

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304604204575182491078039802.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    Gillibrand is so weak we really need someone to run against this woman

  • proudgop

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0410/A_reprieve_for_Feingold.html

    I guess WI radio station is saying Thompson has passed on run

    another bad news but if so Nuemann needs to switch to us senat race

  • proudgop

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/15/nyregion/15blumenthal.html?ref=politics

    NY Times has nice read on Blumenthal and they are saying he might be another Martha

  • redtillimdead

    Not bad considering he had a short quarter and he is considered a long shot. The question is how much of his own money can he spend? He donated 250k to his campaign already, and I would think he has more to loan to it.

  • redtillimdead

    Simmons would probably be favored to win his house seat. His fundraising dropped off a cliff after Dodd dropped out. He trails the primary polls. McMahon would spend 50 million to let CT know how bad Blumenthal is. Blumenthal would be drowned out.

  • redtillimdead

    Why would a former Oklahoma congressman run for senate in Washington? Does he live there now?

  • redtillimdead

    I think Neumann HAS to be getting a call from Paul Ryan and Cornyn soon and he must be secretly considering it. If not, State Sen. Ted Kanavas would be strong, and so would business man Ron Johnson, who has millions to spend on the race. Kanavas sounds likely to get in, attacking Feingold in interviews and saying he could raise the money fast to catch up with Feingold. I hope someone runs. He is more vulnerable than Gillibrand imo.

  • proudgop

    New Susa poll

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8aa1293f-dc76-414f-832b-e9764de86b07

    Rossi 52%
    Patty 42%