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The race to replace Judd Gregg

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 13th, 2010 at 02:24 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Ayotte Hodes

If the Democrats want to regain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate they have to win seats in their home turf, and that includes the New Hampshire seat of retiring Senator and Republican Judd Gregg.

Rasmussen carpet bombed this race, which fortunately only has three likely matchups.

It’s looking good for the Republicans though. Two of the three candidates have solid leads. In the pictured matchup, Kelly Ayotte runs far ahead of lone Democrat Paul Hodes 50-35, with a margin of error of 4.5. That gives her a virtually certain 95% chance of being ahead at this point. Bill Binnie is doing nearly as well at 49-37 and takes a 90% lead probability.

Ovide Lamontagne runs far off the other two Republicans, though he does lead 44-39 for a 71% lead probability. Conservatives are pushing for Lamontagne, and he calls himself the one “true conservative” in the race. His primary opponents are sure to use this poll against him, though.

As for the primary itself, it does appear that Kelly Ayotte is the frontrunner, but the last poll I can find is by Daily Kos and Research 2000 in February that showed Ayotte comfortably ahead of Lamontagne 36-27, with Binnie at the Margin of Error of 4.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Swamp_Yankee

    Ovide has had a tough time with Hodes. He’s led on a couple of polls, but has been behind all year.

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/nh/10-nh-sen-ge-lvh.php

    Ayotte is a sea of Red.

    http://www.pollster.com/polls/nh/10-nh-sen-ge-avh.php

    Bill Binnie is coming on real strong. And Bender just inked Scott Brown’s guys. Binnie is a suprise, but he is more liberal than Ayotte. In the end, I think he may help Ayotte, since she is now positioned in the middle. Ovide is the bomb thrower from the right. Binnie will be the liberal New England Republican. Ayotte is the only sure thing against Hodes.

  • ktsub

    Love listening to her speak will be a great US Senator, she should have strong support.

    Jumped into the race early, and was a good attorney general.

  • drohan00

    that we shouldn’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good and lose the race and split the conservative vote.

    All indications of Kelly Ayotte is that she is not a Scozzafava or anything like her. We are better off supporting her so we keep the NH senate seat in the party.

    We need to be clear eyed and get the most conservative person we can. We don’t need to split our vote, that will kill us and keep the Democrats in charge. Anyone who thinks that we would be better with Hodes in the Senate, probably needs their head examined.

  • Bob_Frazier

    I went out to see how Ms. Ayotte stands on the issues and I found she is very quiet about that. Cound not find anything. Anyone know where she stands other than that R after her name?

    If the most conservative candidate in the race is also winning in the polls, I think this one is a no brainer. Go Lamontagne. Be conservative and be proud.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • morstar150

    I have been following this race from the time that Judd Gregg has announced that he would not run. She is a solid Republican and a strong conservative. The following is an e-mail she sent to me asking for my continued support.

    ___________

    Dear Michael,

    Thank you for being a part of the Team that is leading the fight to take back our country!

    Every day in Washington, the liberal agendas of President Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are on full display. They have driven our federal debt up over $12,000,000,000,000 (that?s twelve TRILLION!) and continue to pile on the spending as though our tax dollars are their personal bank accounts.

    This past week we saw their complete disregard for the wishes of New Hampshire families as they passed their trillion dollar government takeover of health care. Make no mistake, their plan raises taxes by more than $500 billion, runs up the deficit even further, hurts our small businesses, and will ultimately result in higher premiums.

    But I am running for the Senate to put a stop to their reckless spending habits, bring fiscal sanity and discipline to government, and repeal their health care debacle and replace it with meaningful reform.

    Will you continue to support my Team, and help me get to Washington and do the hard work that must be done to take back our country?

    In continuing to be a part of Team Ayotte, you can tell Nancy Pelosi and Paul Hodes that their reckless liberal spending and trillions of dollars of debt are not what New Hampshire families need!

    Our campaign continues to pick up momentum. Recent polling shows me leading Congressman Paul Hodes, a foot-soldier in Nancy Pelosi?s army, by ten points, proving that our message is resonating with New Hampshire voters!

    We have signed up more than 500 new supporters and grassroots volunteers in the last two weeks alone!

    With your help, we will keep the momentum going. Please, visit my new website, and support Team Ayotte with your special, secure contribution. With your help, we?ll be one step closer to winning a great victory for New Hampshire, and to taking back our country!

    Thank you for your generosity!
    Sincerely,

    Kelly Ayotte

    P.S. We can no longer allow the liberal elites in Washington to spend our country deeper into debt. We can stop them, but I need you to join our Team. Please, click HERE to visit my new website, and make a secure, online donation to make sure that we have the resources that we need to fight back against Nancy Pelosi, Paul Hodes and their liberal cronies. Thank you!
    ________________

    I have cut out some of the begging for money that all these candidates have to do, but she is a solid citizen and she will represent her state and country well.

    The guy who calls himself the conservative (Lamontagne) has had problems before and is not well thought of in NH. If you cannot find her stances on the issues you either haven’t been looking or you have some other agenda. She’s solid! She has a great reprutation and SHE’S GOING TO WIN, so get on board.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Swamp_Yankee

    EE front paged this a while ago. Kelly also front paged it on her blog.

    http://www.redstate.com/swamp_yankee/2009/12/21/life-and-leadership-the-real-kelly-ayotte/

    She’s not rah-rah on social issues, but she is pro-life, pro-traditional marriage. She’ somewhat low-key like Judd Gregg, but that’s very New Hampshire. It wears well there.

    Action speak louder then words. Kelly led the charge for the most important abortion case in a generation. She was a real leader. She did out out of principle to the office, as well as personal conviction. But her decision could have cost her job.

    Every Joe Blow with a bullhorn these days is the “real” conservative. But some of these people have littel record and little action to support their words. They havent been tested. I

  • morstar150

    That says it all. Again, get on board.

    I was about to site your post. I found it on Google. All you need to do is look.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • charliebravoNH

    Ovide Lamontagne ran state wide for Governor in 1996 and lost. We ended up with Jeanne Shaheen for 6 years. Ovide Lamontagne as a lawyer defended the Dioceses of Manchester in the Priest Sex Abuse scandal. That alone puts him in bad light with the many Catholics here. People know who Ovide Lamontagne is and it not “jelling” for him.

    Kelly Ayotte for Senate

  • SIConservative

    Sadly, the Supreme Court’s decision to take abortion writ large out of the hands of legislators has blurred this fact, but legal positions on abortion can be very different from political ones. As the AG, it was her responsibility to challenge the law before the Court regardless of whether the Governor wanted her to do so. To be sure, she could have shirked that responsibility and not challenged it, but that would have been a dereliction of duty.

    Understand that I am not making the case that she is not pro-life. I don’t know enough about her to say. I’m only saying that her responsibilities as an AG were very different from what they would be as a legislator, and we can’t legitimately project her legal position onto her political one.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Because they will be extremely lucky to have 53 seats when this is done. I hope they dump untold millions of bucks from Soros and other left-wing statists, as well as from poor little old stupid Democrat women, into races just like this one, which Republicans will win in a walk.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I say that mostly to try to be balanced. :-) Because if I don’t stay balanced at UV then my tools end up biased and therefore worthless.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    You’re doing good work right there.

    It is nevertheless true that in certain rarified air on the left, they DO think they’re just a hair from getting their 60 back.

  • irishrebel2000

    The problem with Ayotte is she has never run for any office in her life,,,
    she was appointed to the Attorney General position, she was not elected.

    I have serious doubts if she has any conservative convictions at all.
    She has changed her positions on a number of issues since she was hand picked by the Washington RNC…

    I wonder how conservative you are when you are the head of the AG’s office and your office gives the Governor a legal opinion that it is ok for the state to take millions of dollars from a privately funded malpractice insurance fund for doctors…

    I thought conservatives used to oppose the taking of private property by the government when it has nothing to do with eminent domain ???

    She also used all the stimulus money that supported her budget and was grateful for earmark spending…. until the NRC whispered in her ear that they were picking her as their candidate…

    Now she opposes the stimulus plan….

    I guess it is alright to flipflop all over the place as long as you have that Washington money behind you…

    The reason we lost so many Republicans seats is because we elected a bunch of people that talked like Republicans and voted like Democrats…

    If we do not elect real conservatives who actually talk and vote like conservatives, we will continue to lose to the Democrats…

  • irishrebel2000

    Wow….

    Once again, how come she used all the stimulus money she could get her hands on and now she says she opposes it…

    What problems has Lamontagne had before ????

    Only thing I heard is he beat a sitting Congressman in a governor’s race and then he lost to Jean Shaheen because the RHINOs loved the idea of having the first female governor…

    I fail to understand how you can be the Republican nominee for governor of the state and not be well thought of….

    You should be a little more specific…

  • irishrebel2000

    Shaheen beat John Sununu….
    does that mean we should never vote for John Sununu ???

    The fact that Ovide Lamontagne defended the Diocese of Manchester in the Priest Sex Abuse Scandal is not a reason to oppose him.

    If that is the case, then we should never elect any lawyer who defends a criminal in a case…

    So, under your theory, we should never have elected Abe Lincoln…

    For that matter, we should get rid of all those emergency room doctors that have the gall to treat the wounds of criminals and the victims of violence….

    Did you ever wonder if the reason Lamontagne took the job was because he wanted to make sure these events never happened again without the Church losing any rights it should keep in its relations with the state ????

    And if Lamontagne’s deal with the state was so bad, why did Ayotte sign off on it as the State AG…

    Ayotte and Lamontagne approved the same document…

    As for the Catholics who think this puts Lamontagne “in a bad light”, did you ever think that the Church needed a lawyer not only to make sure these events never occurred again but also needed someone to make sure the state did not take over our Church…

    Impossible you say, the government has now taken over the medical profession, the car industry, the banking industry, the insurance industry, why not the churches…

  • irishrebel2000

    Lamontagne recently snagged Scott Brown’s field director so Binnie does not have a monopoly on Brown’s campaign help.

    What exactly is a “bomb thrower” ???

    I thought a bomb thrower would be someone who would issue a legal opinion that it was ok for the state to steal money from a privately funded insurance fund…

    Oh well, as long as you have Washington money you do not have to talk about minor things like this…

    Was Ronald Reagan a “bomb thrower ” ???

    Just trying to understand who deserves the term ????

  • irishrebel2000

    And her record as AG is littered with skeletons, so we should expect to see them all as the primary moves forward.

    Wow, since when do State Attorney General’s erase their official records from state computers ???

    What did Kelly Ayotte know and when did she know it ????

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36725.html

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re almost a month late on this one. Sloppy.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …but do you ever plan to use this site to do ANYTHING besides snarl about Ayotte in favor of Lamontagne?

  • Swamp_Yankee

    There was a new one last week

    Ayotte +15 over Hodes
    Ovide +1 over Hodes
    Binnie +2 over Hodes
    Bender -3 Hodes

    http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_spring_congapp42910.pdf

    A new primary lse week to:

    Ayotte – 43
    Bender – 11
    Binnie – 19
    Lamontagne – 5

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_421.pdf