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Pennsylvania Special: Replacing Jack Murtha

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 21st, 2010 at 03:40 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

[UPDATE, Moe Lane: With Neil's permission I'm annotating this with a link to Tim Burns' moneybomb. Tim's less than four grand away from hitting his original goal of $50K; you can watch his RS CPAC interview here.]

Pennsylvania 12

Public Policy Polling looked into the special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, the seat vacated by the late Jack Murtha.

Republican Tim Burns comes out with a narrow lead, 44-41 (MoE 2.8) over Democrat Mark Critz. I see a 70% chance Burns is actually ahead right now, but of course a race this close could move either way by the end.

PPP notes that besides Critz being behind, Barack Obama, Arlen Specter, and Ed Rendell are all unpopular as well, making this a district and climate unfavorable to a Democrat in general. So, they say it would be surprising for Critz to win here.

I don’t think they go far enough. I suspect Critz is doing better than any of the three leaders of his party polled because of one advantage. Critz never had to make an official decision on the PPACA which is important when the poll shows disapproval of “President Obama’s health care plan” by a 59-28 margin.

Is that bill a problem more than party label? Are special elections giving fresh Democrats better chances to win than their incumbents will have later, meaning all the wins they’ve been racking up aren’t predictive of November? I think that just may be the case, reading polls like these.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • IJB

    And over the long-term, not just in 2010.

    I seriously cannot believe that *anyone* would be stupid enough to fall for the line that the guy who was JACK MURTHA’S CHIEF-OF-STAFF isn’t going to vote *exactly* the same way that Jack Murtha did.

    If the GOP let’s them get away with this here, they’re going to lose about 20 seats in November. they should have won

    It is *critical* that the voters be made to understand that THERE IS NO SUCK THING AS AN “INDEPENDENT” DEMOCRAT, and any vote for any Democrat is a vote for the Far Left agenda of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama.

    If we can’t get that message across in the race, we’re the ones who will be “DOOMed”…

  • IJB
  • liandro

    To a certain extent, many voters seem to be more anti-incumbent then they are anti-Democrat. As you point out, this largely might have to do with the votes incumbents have had to take recently (blue-dogs come to mind). No doubt this varies by region and by the quality of the candidates, etc.

    Here in IL we have turnover in almost every major position, so it’s hard to get a read if incumbency or party affiliation is driving any particular race. The R’s here haven’t really done the groundwork for tying Blago or our dreadful fiscal position to the Dem’s as much as they should…but it’s still fairly early in the cycle.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    …if incumbents who opposed the PPACA are going to be fine. :-)

  • earlgrey

    I’d like it if they could let us opt out of getting mailings. I get a lot of them since I became acitve oh about 15-16 months ago. I am tired of my husband asking me why I care who is the Senator in florida or in this case the congressional rep in PA.

    I did give. Fingers crossed!

  • Return to Revolution

    and more generally, after RATS like Stupak, its hard to believe people would trust ANY democrat (trust me, I TOTALLY would have voted No on that bill….). Of course this comes in a district that rates E to R+1, yet voters consistently and overwhelmingly elected Murtha.

    Also, given that the PA GOP did everything they could to keep Murtha in office, I’m hoping that will no longer be a factor and they will actually fight the democrats this time.

  • thicklugpaddy

    never mind running for Congress.You can’t work for a skell like Jack Murtha and not get tainted. A coruptocrat if there ever was one. My son was in Iraq when Murtha accused those Marines of murder, A flat out lie. What was Mr.Critz’ opinion of his former boss’s acusation? He needs to be tied to Jack Murtha for every waking moment of this campaign.
    Shouted at and shouted down at every turn.Time to take the gloves off.

  • proudgop

    1. The race has to stay nationalized and cannot be about Murtha because he is still popular in seat. They liked all money he brought in district

    run on coal, health care, taxes, Pelosi/Obama/Rendall

  • outlawcountry

    I been reading all of tea leaves into this and have to said this election could go 50/50. I been reading polls and I have found one where Tim Burns is leading but other where Critz is the one who the leader.There are a lot thing that will come into play for this like turnout will be a key factor in this race.

    One thing that could happen is Tim Burns could win the SPECIAL ELECTION but lose the Primary to Bill Russell. What would that mean Tim Burns would fill out the tern but can’t seek a other run for the seat ion the gop side??

  • GregInFla

    Just curious. I support Col Russell financially in 2008 against Murtha. If you guys out there like Russell, please speak out.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You do know I didn’t make this poll, right? I’m just analyzing it.

  • IJB

    So I don’t think there’s much point in talking about Russell…

  • proudgop

    If I were Burns I’d have a new ad out pronto on Obama’s VAT words

    I lived in Europe a while that tax would destroy this country and hurt every American

    Every Republican needs to make this a huge issue prnoto

  • Richard Mullins

    The breakdown is interesting and Neil that should spur on to do a pollsters work.

  • outlawcountry

    myself don’t put a lot trust in polls seeing with the scott brown factor there is now a day

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But if something’s right 95 times out of 100 and you choose to ignore it entirely because of the 5 times, well you must really hate that bathwater to throw out the baby with it.

  • outlawcountry

    happen more than people think

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s your choice.

    Just skip my future poll posts if you feel that way though, if you don’t trust polls at all. Saves us all some trouble!

  • smoothsailing

    I support Bill Russell. I live in the 12th Congressional District and will for vote for Russell in the Republican Primary on May 18th. That same day I will also vote for Burns in the special election.

    It’s important that we take the old Murtha seat to send a message nationwide, so it’s Burns in the special even though I don’t much care for him.

    Russell is by far the best candidate in the primary,as you know, he stepped up in ’08 when no other Republican in the district, Burns included, had the guts to take Murtha on. He’s a man of principle, exemplary character and integrity, and a proven leader. His life story and life of service to our nation dwarf anything any other candidate in this race,Democrat,Republican, or Libertarian, have to offer. Now he wants to continue his service to our nation by representing the interests of the folks in the 12 th Congressional District.

    I will be doing everything I can to see to it that Bill Russell gets that opportunity.

  • GregInFla

    and a primary on same day? Pardon me for not understanding how PA loves elections. I did not see Russell mentioned and could not understand why not. Why is Russell not running in the special election? I guess I have a couple phone calls to make.

    Sorry Neil, my comment was not personally meant for you. I will admit, however, that I have been frustrated after, when seeing front page diaries on Congressional elections, a diary I posted recently introducing Col. Allen West (Ret.), (R, FL-22) who gets little attention here, got little response from the RS community. And then with Col. Russell (Ret.) not mentioned, my nerves got a bit tinged. Keep doing a great job, Neil, especially on Net Neutrality. You are my authority on NN.

  • smoothsailing

    Special Election candidates were selected by their respective local political party. In the case of the Republicans the PAGOP Chairman Rob Gleason was recommending Burns be selected because Burns is extremely wealthy and claimed he could self-fund his own campaign (estimates of his personal fortune range as high as 200 million bucks).

    This appealed to the party representatives because the Republican Party in Pennsylvania is weak and has little money. Another factor was Rob Gleason’s dislike for Col. Russell. Russell is his own man and Gleason prefers candidates he can influence. Gleason refused to endorse Russell when he ran against Murtha and criticized him for surging in the polls and doing so well, making Murtha squirm.

    All of that is old news here locally, Republican voters will support Burns in the special election and either Burns or Col. Russell in the primary. If yard signs are any indication, I’d say Col. Russell is the more popular of the two.

    While Burns and Critz are trashing each other with their TV ads, Col. Russell is running a TV ad that is upbeat and patriotic. The contrast to the Burns-Critz daily ad battles is quite uplifting.

  • GregInFla

    And for doing the research I should have done.

  • proudgop

    Via Political Wire

    With most polls showing the special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district a dead heat, the Cook Political Report moves the race from Toss Up to Leans Republican.

    Key point: “But polls don’t always paint the whole picture, and for special election watchers who think this is the same kind of animal we saw in NY-20 and NY-23 last year, it’s time to think again. In this climate and corner of Pennsylvania, Democrats’ path to 50 percent is considerably more uphill than Republicans’, and the GOP is well-positioned to snap its disheartening string of special election losses.”

    We have to just make sure we still take it but good Cook moved it in our direction