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Thompson declines and so do Wisconsin Republican hopes

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 23rd, 2010 at 03:09 PM  | 

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Tommy Thompson was going to give Russ Feingold a tough race, but he decided not to run. How are Republicans doing now to challenge the three term incumbent? Rasmussen has a look.

As an aside, I want to make a point about Rasmussen questionnaires. When I mentioned that the Ron Paul poll might have been paid for by Ron Paul backers some people thought I was insulting Rasmussen’s polling. Far from it. I’m saying he normally does much better! Just look at the latest Wisconsin Senate poll. Rasmussen gets favorability ratings for all candidates, not just one. In the Ron Paul poll he only asked about Paul, giving people no way to express dissatisfaction with Obama but to back Ron Paul, probably skewing the results.

Moving on, both Republicans have made small progress since Thompson has been confirmed not to be entering the race, and Feingold still has the 49% that just barely puts him in the traditional field of being in jeopardy. But he maintains solid leads against all comers: 43/49 over Terrence Wall (75% chance Feingold leads), 38/49 over Dave Westlake (89% chance for Feingold), and 37/48 over newcomer to the poll Richard Leinenkugel (89%).

I wouldn’t call this race over, but now Republicans start with a sizable deficit. It’s surmountable, to be sure, but this race got a lot less worrisome for Democrats the second Thompson said No.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB

    I agree that it’s longer odds to win this one now.

    But there are three reasons to be optimistic about this race:

    1) Feingold’s under 50%.
    2) Feingold is too liberal for WI, and has barely won his previous Senate races, despite the fact that at least one of them fell in a good election year for Dems nationally. (IOW, he’s just a weak candidate generally…)
    3) The GOP opponents are around 40% (esp. Wall), which means that if they can get their name ID’s up, they can close the gap.

    I would agree with any designation of this seat as “leans Dem”. But I would not agree with a “likely Dem” or “solid Dem” designation – Feingold has *not* locked this one up, and with some luck and a really big wave, I think he can still go down this year…

  • RINKER

    Wow are you gloomy. For an unknown like Terrence Wall to only be 6 points down against an incumbent Senator is outstanding! Wall’s challenge (if nominated) is to define the race before Feingold defines him. This race can be won – no doubt!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m glad you guys aren’t brought down. I tried to be even about it!

  • dhorowitz3

    Feingold is only 6 points ahead of a totally unknown guy. Someone like that is usually 20-30 points behind a third term incumbent. If anything I think this can be competitive. This is something that Erick has stressed throughout the year. We don’t necessarily need to bring out the old guard to win. As long as we have a solid conservative who runs a spirited campaign he will win once he gets name recognition.

  • fairtaxguy

    I am going to become a precinct committeeman. Lets find the cadidate to back in WI and back him. We got old mo on our side. Let us know where to send the checks.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You can be sure you’ll see more postings after the primary.

  • Dan McLaughlin

    Wisconsin’s an opportunity. But Feingold avoided a serious challenge in 2004 because the GOP waited until mid-September to hold its primary among a crowded field of candidates, so nobody had time to solidify a general election warchest and introduce themselves to the public. As far as I can tell, the primary this year is September 14, so the party has learned nothing. Those weak poll numbers against Feingold now are because these guys are unknown nobodies. But until mid-September, they will stay that way.

  • gwalt

    Look for the media to pounce. They will dutifully destroy (or try to) the “R” candidate in Wisconsin and all over the US. .
    Look at McDonnell and the thesis. Allen and macaca. Foley and the texts.

    If WE don’t start embarrassing and questioning the media, they will continue to run over us. The guy who is/was doing billboards in Atlanta on Obama has it wrong—he should have Couric, Lauer, Matthews and Sawyer on billboards with YOU LIE across their foreheads ( a series with different faces and slogans).

    Obama enjoys a 3 Billion- 5 billion dollar a year PR machine for free.

    That the RNC has no media plan comes as no surprise. Steele is a huge disappointment. Bring on Ari Fleischer to start a campaign on calling the media out in public—on interstates and other outlets.

    The media go down, so do Democrats. Without the medias lying complicit help, Feingold, and all democrats wouldn’t be where they are today. At least not this bunch.

  • JimmyGee

    Wisconsin is not the lost cause one would think they are. I hate to say this, but I feel that Wall and Westlake are both lightweights, and will not have the money to beat Feingold.
    However, there are two powerful storm clouds on Feingold’s horizon. They are Wisconsin State Senator Ted Kanavas, and Wisconsin business-man, Ron Johnson (Pacur Corp.).
    Ted Kanavas has the name recognition in the state, and a solid reputation as a true conservative.
    But, Ron Johnson is the nightmare that Feingold dreams about every night. He is a conservative, and he is his own walking-talking money-bomb! He has suggested using 10 million of his own money! Feingold only has 4+ million.
    Tommy’s refusal to run only opened the door for others to run. And Tommy did have one negative, and Feingold called it; it is possible that Tommy could be called a “Washington Insider.”

  • redtillimdead

    The state sets the primary.

  • redtillimdead

    I have heard good things about him. He has millions to spend. I have also heard that he is an active Tea Party member that can speak to independents like no other politician in WI. Kanavas would also be strong.

  • GCBWI

    is that Feingold has the highest percentage of the four candidates in the very unfavorable impression category, by about 20 points. His percentage of voters with a very unfavorable impression is actually four points higher than the percentage of those surveyed who view him very favorably.

    Granted, the three challengers have low favorable/unfavorable numbers in large part because they’re relatively unknown.

    Feingold took a lot of flack over Obama care, and i suspect that’s one of the issues on which he is weakest.

    The challengers have their work cut out for them, but Feingold seems a lot more beatable this time around.

  • Common_Cents

    I’m tired of hearing all the stories about media bias. duh. Yet leaders don’t do anything about it. We gotta callem out and get in their face. If we don’t we are always behind before the race even starts. Doing nothing just gives the MSM tacit approval and signals nothing is wrong. Our current crop of leaders would rather say how nice the other side is rather than wake up to realize war has been declared on them for some time.

    I am reminded of Gingrich quickly taking down a MSM reporter at the RNC. This is what needs to be done. Our candidates need to have those qualities that Newt has as well as a Giulliani to call people out. It won’t take much of an effort, just a consistent coordination to smack down the bully MSM.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjGhy8LVwAo

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I said the opposite of it being a lost cause. I called the deficit surmountable, and I pointed out that Feingold is below the magic 50.

    But I’m glad you’re optimistic. :-)

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    so its time to create a star. Wall or Westlake both seem viable, with Terrence Wall having a bit stronger infrastructure. (I don’t know too much about the new candidate). I’ve been saying this for a while. We don’t need Tommy Thompson, never really needed him. We just need to start backing one of the candidates that we have.

    In most years, this race would indeed have been over the minute Thompson stepped aside, but this isn’t most years. This is already a strong Republican year, and could still get stronger yet as the Obama administration seeks to implement more overwhelmingly unpopular taxes and big government programs. There is no reason to back off of this race. In fact, Thompson’s exit only makes it all the more important that we look at the candidates and build some momentum behind one.

    I posted a piece on here a while back about this race. Its a bit outdated now, but still includes some decent background on the candidates. I really think Wall or Westlake could be built into a decent candidate in the way that Erick and Redstate have strengthened the message of Marlin Stutzman in Indiana. They just need some support from the conservative community.

  • jomo2009

    and all that. While it’s unfortunate that Feingold has an easier time getting re-elected, the time has come for the GOP to start drawing on a younger, more principled conservative candidate pool. Men and women in their late 30′s and early 40′s must become the future of the Republican party.

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    Back in March 2009, I spoke to John McCain at a forum he held for Arizona GOP precinct committeemen. I then wrote him about what I told him I believe the Republican “leadership” (whoever that was, because he was unable to tell me, definitively, who he believe were the “leaders” of the “loyal opposition”).

    Here’s the excerpt dealing with the media:

    More recently, on March 27, as a lowly Republican Party precinct committeeman, I attended the town-hall style meeting you hosted in Mesa. I was very impressed with your command of the issues and am convinced that had you forced Obama into some town-hall style meetings like this one, you would have won the election. To refresh your recollection, I was the fit, ruggedly handsome, youngish-looking-but-in-his-fifties guy in the blue suit on the center aisle who followed up on a woman?s earlier observation that everyone she speaks with is terrified of the future under the Obama Administration?s wrong-headed headlong rush into socialism and who asked what the Republican leadership was going to do to fight it. Having not received an adequate answer, I then asked you, pointedly, along the same lines, who, exactly, was the ?leader? of the Republican Party and, if there was a leader, what strategies were being employed against the Obama Administration to wake up the American people so that the people would demand that the Obama Administration stop its destructive policies. As part of the question, I asked whether you, Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, or Colin Powell (who, I sarcastically noted, voted ?for the other guy?), were the leader of the Party at the moment. Your answer was unsatisfactory as you basically just rattled off a lot of names and then said it was ?too early? for a new leader to emerge. Not being satisfied with your answer, I followed up by asking, again, why those of you whom I had mentioned in the Senate could not, for example, especially with the internet and other communication technologies we enjoy today, come up with a daily set of talking points against what the Democrats are doing and get that message out to the American people, bypassing the ?mainstream media? if necessary by using YouTube, talk radio, e-mails, etc. I mentioned the fact that our Party Platform contains all of the principles and values upon which we, as Republicans, can show the American people what is wrong with the Democrat Party?s deficit spending and unconstitutional spending spree and that we should use those principles and the Platform to distinguish our party from theirs. I also suggested that whoever the leader is pronounce a new rule that there would be no more appearances by Republican leaders on any network but Fox because of the obvious hostility to Republicans by the talking heads of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and MSNBC. You at least quipped that you do not appear on MSNBC and I told you that was good news, but that what you really need to do is stay off the ?mainstream media? outlets, except for Fox, and tell the American people why. Make it an issue. Fight the media as well as the Democrats.

    Again, your answer was empathetic but unsatisfying. You felt my pain but did not tell me who the leader was or what strategies that leader might employ. You said you sensed my frustration and fears and those of others who had expressed similar sentiments at other meetings you had recently attended. It?s clear to me, at least, from your answers (and, your actions), the Party has no leadership and has abdicated its role as the ?loyal opposition.?

    <<<<

    The “leaders” of the Party don’t have a strategy. If they don’t get one, then we need to replace them. We can let them know we WILL replace them at the primary ballot box. Both in the Republican Primary elections and in the internal Party leadership elections. The BEST way to achieve the former is by becoming a Republican Party precinct committeeman. And the BEST, and ONLY, way to do the latter is to become a precinct committeemen — because ONLY PCs get to vote in the internal Party leadership elections.

    Tell them either, one,

    you’re a conservative, you’re a precinct committeemen, and you’re recruiting every conservative you know to become one, and you WILL work against them in the primary on behalf of a more conservative challenger if they don’t start FIGHTING FOR OUR INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS with passion and vigor and with a strategy, or, two,

    you’re in the process of becoming a precinct committeeman, you’re recruiting every conservative you know to become a precinct committeeman, and you WILL work against them in the primary on behalf of a more conservative challenger if they don’t start FIGHTING FOR OUR INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS with passion and vigor and with a strategy.

    Anything else is, in my humble opinion, just words that they don’t really care about, because all they really FEAR is a real challenge in the primary.

    Thank you.
    ColdWarrior, PC
    Conservates, UNITE! CHANGE the Republican Party and the world by UNITING INSIDE the Party as precinct committeemen. NOW!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • GCBWI

    need to start hammering home all the negative stuff that’s come out about Obamacare since the House passed the Senate bill and it got signed into law.

    The bill is a monstrosity from beginning to end, passed by legislative games designed to conceal what a monstrosity it is, over the loudly-voiced objections of a majority of Americans.

    Feingold and company need to be reminded that the bill doesn’t cover pre-exisiting conditions for children as touted, that it will add more than $300 billion dollars to the federal deficit rather than cutting costs, that the Medicare/Medicaid cuts are going to deny people health care, etc. etc. etc.

  • Brian_Roastbeef

    The trouble with Tommy Thompson as a candidate in this race was that we would have been relying on a nearly 70 year old man who has expressed support for government run health care. That was not what we needed in order to strengthen our party in the future. If we are truly to move forward we need to do so with people such as Wall and Westlake. Young, dynamic candidates with conservative values need to step forward and lead the party. If they are unknown, then we need to help them make themselves known.

  • houstoneagle

    I’m from Wisconsin originally. Wisconsin is one of the most liberal states in the union. Feingold is a hard working, common sense liberal, and that’s the kind of senator people support in that state. I don’t like it any more than you do. His policies do not represent mine. But anyone saying Feingold is too liberal for Wisconsin just doesn’t understand how liberal Wisconsin is.

    Wisconsin is in the 4% of states that do not allow carrying a gun no matter how law-abiding you are.

    Wisconsin never votes Democrat for president. Never. Well, OK, 3 decades ago, but that was the 49-state landslide, so that doesn’t really count.

    This state is just soooo liberal. Sigh.

    Thompson was the only chance, and even Thompson knew it would be an uphill slog.

  • houstoneagle

    Please don’t think I am a one-note doom and gloomer. I highly encourage people to go out and make Feingold’s defeat happen. I’m just saying that we can’t expect it.

  • IJB

    …Then how come votes for President are usually quite close?
    And how come Feingold barely wins his reelection races?

    I could go on, but I think I’ve made my point.

  • redtillimdead

    They both have had some tax troubles in the past. Something I’m sure the DSCC and Feingold will make sure Wisconsin voters know about. Leinenkugel worked for a Dem governor and his family owns a brwery, so he could have money to spend. He might also be able to win over a good amount of Dems since he worked for one. Ron Johnson, also a millionaire, is assembling a campaign staff and seems to be preferred by the WI GOP, or state Sen. Ted Kanavas.

  • JamesSmith130

    The only Republican who did well there (with respect to the country) in the last 30 years was GWB.

    McCain lost by 14- 7% worse than nationally
    Bush in 2004 tied- 3% worse than nationally
    Bush in 2000 tied- same as nationally
    Dole in 1996 lost by 11- 3% worse than nationally
    Bush in 1992 lost by 4- 1% better than nationally (Perot got 22%)
    Bush in 1988 lost by 4- 11% worse than nationally
    Reagan in 1984 won by 9- 8% worse than nationally
    Reagan in 1980 won 5- 5% worse than nationally.

    On Feingold:

    1992- Won 53-46
    1998- Won 51-48
    2004- Won 55-44

    Against a weak candidate, Feingold outperformed John Kerry by 11% in margin. I think it will be rather difficult for any of these candidates to beat Feingold without a major mistake on Feingold’s part.

  • JimmyGee

    Neil,
    I have to be positive…I live in this God-forsaken, taxed-to-death hellhole!
    Where else can you live where it is warmer in your freezer 6 months of the year?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Just making sure I get credit for not being doom and gloom when I listed every reason to have hope :)

    You should move out here to California. You get the taxes and socialist misery but at least the weather’s fantastic.

  • outlawcountry

    Former state Commerce Secretary Dick Leinenkugel is sound to be jumping into the race.

  • earlgrey

    Besides this is going to be a long haul to correct the damage they have done to this country. We can’t just throw up a bunch of dinosaurs and then have to go looking again in a few years.

  • Kyle-MI

    Rassmussen also says the 53% of WI voters favor repeal of Obamacare, so there is an overlap of voters who favor repeal and favor Feingold’s reelection. Maybe they don’t know he voted for Obamacare?

    Rassmussen is also reporting that the WI Governor’s race is practically a dead heat between the Dem and the Rep’s. They say that the Dem has been steadily gaining ground and the Rep’s loosing it. Any insight from the WI Redstate folks?

  • dmartin

    But I do know what’s in Feingolds newsletters, and it’s Terrence Wall. I am glad Thompson is out, and so are most people I talk to. He was a big spending Republican just like the ones that gave us 08, and I think when push came to shove he saw it too. Wall is a young successfull businessman who while having no voting record to judge, is saying the right things, and Feingold is nervous. Walls campaign had over 1 million dollars at the end of the first quarter to Westlakes $2300, a lot of that is Walls own money, but he is still outraising Westlake significantly. Leinenkugel is hauling way too much Doyle baggage to go anywhere as a Republican. I dont know much about Johnson or Kanavas, but I think Wall has potential, and aparantly Feingold does too.

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    But Tommy has jumped the shark, like another guy who played an unlikely cheesehead on television before cheeseheads were cool.

    The best you can say about Tommy is he can beat Russ Feingold. His conservative credentials are so-so. Scott Walker and Mark Neumann are probably #2 and #3 in name recognition, but they are locked into a Governor’s race for an open seat being vacated by an unpopular Democrat who has teed up a takeover that is the Republicans to lose. Clearly Wisconsin needs more young Turks like Walker and Neumann, if for no other reason than to dilute the public employee unions’ firepower.

    Leinenkugel comes from a family brewery, which is successful, but, IMHO, a little, uh, cheesy in its brand image. Herb Kohl was (and still is) a captain of industry, retail, and, despite a voting record only worse than his lifetime record as owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, shirks the liberal label because he can buy enough ads to convince you he is not.

    Feigold is pretty gol-darn beatable, but the real stars like Walker are busy putting out other fires.

  • shaitra

    The party will be endorsing candidates that weekend. My hope is we can then get behind the endorsed candidate for this senate seat and push his name recognition forward. Feingold is beatable, we just have to work at it though.