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The race tightens in Maryland

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 26th, 2010 at 02:31 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

There is more to life than the US Senate. In many states, control of the Governor’s office will have a critical role in the process of redistricting after the 2010 Census and reapportionment of US House seats.

So today we look at the Maryland Governor’s race as polled by Rasmussen.

As with Texas, the incumbent leads, but it’s closer than it was.

Back in 2006, Democrat Martin O’Malley beat Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich 53-46 in a good year for Democrats. In what is expected to be a good year for Republicans, Ehrlich has announced another shot at the big chair, challenging now-Governor O’Malley’s expected run for re-election.

In February it was no surprise that O’Malley led Ehrlich in the Rasmussen poll 49-43 (MoE 4.5), about the same advantage the Governor had in 2006. But that lead has diminished, and is now 47-44, three points and only a 63% chance of being ahead at all anymore.

Like Rick Perry, Martin O’Malley needs to watch his back.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Scope

    As you have said, redistricting depends on who sits in the Governors office. In 2010, we have a terrific opportunity to gain more Republican seats in Congress. There are many “speculating” that the Republicans will pick up a number of Governor’s seats that are currently held by Democrats. There are a few races, at this early stage, that look troublesome to me- TX (Perry), and Ohio( Kasich). Maryland is very winnable, and so are TX and OH. We pushed/pulled some other Repubs, ahem, over the finish line in 2008, we can certainly push/pull some who are even more deserving.

  • ktsub

    I know everyone knows how important Texas is for redistricting. Rick Perry, and a legislature controlled by Republicans is very key to GOP redistricting. The Texas House is 3 votes shy of Democratic majority, so this race is very important to keep an eye on, but its early…and Rick Perry had millions of dollars of negative ads directed at him. He also has a hostile media in Texas, that is not on his side. But he has a Republican electorate, but Bill White is very savy and will come accross as a non-partisan. Watch this race.

    The DGA has already put $500,000 into Bill White’s campaign, and there is an coordinated effort by national Democrats to push Texas into the blue. Milllions and millions will be poured into our judicial races also (they are sensing a chance this year to pick up seats on the down ballot). Texas will be a bullwark year, if they can be held off it will be a few more cycles till they have the bench to regroup after this year. Right now they are down on every race below Governor.

  • mich22

    I was just at the Lincoln Dinner in Frederick, which has been sold out for quite sometime, and the energy is palpable. Ehrlich stickers were everywhere. Also, the interest in the Senate race to oust Barbara Mikulski is also increasing. Jim Rutledge appears to be the conservative leader in the race, and I’m supporting him. Hopefully, Ehrlich and Rutledge will help eachother, and supporters of both will work harder than ever. The Republican party in MD has been fairly ineffective over the years, but the percentage of conservatives outnumber liberals by a +9 margin in this blue state, so we have much to work with. Also, more people voted for John McCain in 2008 than Martin O’Malley in 2006, so both Ehrlich and Rutledge can win if the voters TURN OUT. And, that comes down to us, and how much we can work on our family, our friends, our neighbors to get out there and pull that lever for limited government and personal liberties. Much reason to be juiced up!

  • IJB

    Right now, MD has 2 GOP leaning districts, 2 fairly strong Dem leaning districts, and 4 rock solid Dem districts.

    The way I figure it, at best, you could maybe squeeze 3 GOP-leaning seats out of MD, leaving 5 (stronger) Dem seats.

    I’m not saying it’s not worth trying. Just that I’m not even sure Ehrlich can guarantee such an outcome…

  • texasgalt

    Perry VS White: It is sitting real close to where it was the first week of March.
    With all the advertising done by White ( and not much response from Perry),
    White moved from 43 to 44%.

    Donks gaining down ballot? In the current atmosphere? Republicans primary voters outnumbered Dems over 2-1 (March 2nd).

    Texans favor repeal of the health care cramdown 69-28.
    66% of Texans believe they are overtaxed.
    Houston, under White is a Sanctuary city. New poll today shows nationally 60% of Americans favor allowing authorities to stop people to verify immigration status. This is ALL bad news for White.

    >> Texas will be a bullwark year, if they can be held off it will be a few more cycles till they have the bench to regroup after this year. Right now they are down on every race below Governor.<<

    What are you trying to say here?

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/election_2010_texas_governor

  • Richard Mullins

    If most people actually knew Bill White, they wouldn’t even vote him for Dog Catcher. He’s trying to get a name, but I’m sure that most of the people that he trying to meet, also get emails from the RPT(Republican Party of Texas). I don’t think it’s a good idea to go to Canadian and drum up votes. That’s opposition’s heartland and they have more info on Bill White. For all your friends and family that vote, direct them to the stories at the Houston Chronicle, because while they seem to want to cheer Bill White, they have a lot of Kinsley Gaffe’s.

  • texasgalt

    and Texas will not like what it learns.

  • cahnman

    n/t

  • Menlo

    As long as the current RINO remains house speaker, it doesn’t matter which party has the majority.

    That legislature will accomplish absolutely nothing on redistricting. And if they try, they will do nothing else. The most they can accomplish these days are bathroom bills and booster seat bills.

  • Scope

    in general, not in particular to just Maryland.

  • texasgalt

    Have you considered the RINO spkr might get the boot?

    Why always so negative? It’s not good for ones health.

  • janis

    I’ve ever seen him comment on. I’d compare him to someone in the Hundred Acre Woods, but I promised I wouldn’t do that anymore after the one I last did it to got Moe’d. Haven’t seen him since, either.

    As for Menlo, he doesn’t seem to enjoy life in any aspect, which is sad.

  • texasgalt

    In time White wont cut it with many outside his sanctuary city of Houston and those that believe in such.

  • texasgalt

    So negative in fact, one does have to wonder why.

  • Scope

    From reading many of Menlo’s negative and disheartening posts, I think the case can be made that no Republican has ever lived up to Menlo’s Libertarian “purity test”, and most likely never will. All Menlo ever does is post his gloom and doom, the sky is falling comments, because no Republicans have become as enlightened as he.