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Reversal of fortunes in New Hampshire?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 28th, 2010 at 02:59 PM  | 

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We’ve already seen that Republicans are in fair shape in the New Hampshire Senate race, but it appears that the state could also return to its historical norm of sending Republicans to the House, according to the latest from PPP.

Before the second Bush midterm election, Democrats hadn’t won both New Hampshire House seats since the 1912 election on Woodrow Wilson’s coattails. They then lost both right back two years later. The Carol Shea-Porter/Paul Hodes pair is notable as the first Democrats to hold two New Hampshire seats for two terms since the founding of the Republican party.

Combine that news with Jeanne Shaheen defeating John Sununu in 2008, and Republicans had fallen in just one election from holding the entire New Hampshire delegation to controlling just one of four seats. Some thought this marked the end of northeastern Republicanism.

But Kelly Ayotte is situated well in the Senate race against Hodes who now runs for the Senate, and the House races are just as competitive. Shea-Porter trails Frank Guinta 46-45 (MoE 3.9) despite a majority having no opinion of the Republican. Guinta has only a 55% chance of being ahead, but Republicans will take it after the last two elections.

The other district also shows improvement for Republican chances. Charlie Bass is running for his old seat to replace the man who beat him, Hodes, and leads Katrina Swett (“the best known Democratic candidate” per PPP) 47-32, with a crushing 97% lead probability aided by his 49-26 lead among independents.

Republicans have run poorly in New Hampshire in the last two elections, but may yet make a strong rebound this year to retake a majority of the state’s Congressional delegation. Democrats will have a hard time holding the House seats, though, when statewide 52% oppose the PPACA (“President Obama’s health care plan,” per PPP) to 42% who support it.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB

    I hope they aren’t that dumb. Luckily, there are other candidates in the Primary, and I’m assuming that one will work itself out over the summer.

    As for NH-01, Rollcall still has that one as “Leans Dem”, which is a laugh IMO, as I don’t see how Shea-Porter survives a General Election campaign in a Cook PVI “EVEN” district, esp. with her voting record and positions, and her terrible campaign skills and instincts…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Two term House incumbents get the benefit of the doubt. To break away from that and project incumbents to be at a disadvantage goes against everything we know about elections.

    Shea-Porter has a good chance of being ahead right now. 45% by my analysis. Guinta has to be thrilled to be where he is right now, but 46-45 does not make him a lock when he has a lot of work to do even to get name recognition.

    As for Bass… he seems to run very well against Swett. You don’t think Swett will win on the D side?

  • IJB

    I’d rather have a real Republican conservative running for that seat. The rest will take care of itself, Sweet or no.

  • proudgop

    NH can rejoin a revival in New England for Republicans. Granted they will be much more moderate Republicans then other parts of the state but we can win 2 races in Hampshire, Open seats in RI and MA, plus 3 Congressional Races in CT look competitive.

    Republicans still have shot at Senate Race in CT

    I know many of you love primaries I hate primaries that don’t happen till September its not good in my books

    I think Bass will be good candidate in that context Swett has a lot money already from her us senate campaign 2 years ago before she dropped out for shanahan

  • IJB

    He’s already proven his RINOness by his last go-round in Congress. (For example, there’s a vast difference between Charlie Bass, and say Rob Simmons who’s not a RINO in my book…)

    We can absolutely do better than Charlie Bass. And the NRCC can be there for whoever beats Bass in the primary, so we can be sure that our candidate can get his/her message out between September and November. I’m not worried about that part.

  • proudgop

    You do see how much the NRCC has compared to Dems?

    Bass was much more conservative then Simmons

  • IJB

    The NRCC has about $10 mil on hand right now, which is probably more than I thought they’d have.

    The Republicans have a number of self-funders and good-fundraisers among their House candidates this year, which will allow the NRCC to be more choosy and to husband their resources for races like NH-02.

    And no amount of money will turn around the ‘message environment’ on the 2010 elections for the Democrats.

    I’m honestly not worried about that.

  • IJB

    I don’t recall Simmons ever doing that.

    So, no, I don’t consider Bass “more conservative” than Simmons.

  • purepotato

    In that same poll, Guinta’s negatives are at -3, with only 25% name recognition. Those are poor numbers, and when you compare this poll to the past poll in February from UNH, they show a downward trend. Now with a new UNH poll out (http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_spring_congapp42910.pdf), it too confirms that his numbers are on a rapid decline. It’s beyond me why anyone is sending money to a career politician in an election year where people have said they’ve had enough of that type of candidate.

    There are other players in this primary race that are far more credentialed and are beating expectations with fund raising. Bob Bestani is one of those people. He has an excellent mix of real-life business experience and government contribution. He worked in the Treasury Department under Bush 41 as Deputy Assistant Secretary of International Monetary Affairs, with Geitner at one point reporting to him. He is a long time member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and former Director General of the Asia Development Bank’s Private Sector Finance Department. He speaks fluent Arabic, and has experience in Middle East and Asian policy. What’s the cherry on the top? He studied personally under Milton Friedman.

    Aside from that he’s been actively involved at the state and municipal level, as the Chairman of the Finance Committee for the Rockingham County GOP, as well as former Chairman of both the Municipal Audit and Energy Committees for the town of Newmarket, NH.

    When comparing these kinds of credentials to that of his opponents, who are all nice and well liked members of their respective communities, Bob is head and shoulders above them.

    In his own words:

    ?Government is serious business. But government is also singularly bad at providing goods and services.”

    He’s got the experience to back up that talking point. His opponents? I’m not sure sure.

  • proudgop

    UNH came out with some polls yesterday

    New Hampshire Senate – Ayotte vs. Hodes WMUR/UNH
    Ayotte 47, Hodes 32 Ayotte +15
    New Hampshire 1st District – Guinta vs. Shea-Porter WMUR/UNH Guinta 42, Shea-Porter 38 Guinta +4
    New Hampshire 2nd District – Bass vs. Swett WMUR/UNH
    Bass 44, Swett 27 Bass +17

    show an even more pro GOP swing