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Obama and Biden to be succeeded by Republicans?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 30th, 2010 at 06:42 PM  | 

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Biden Obama

Rasmussen released two new polls today. The Illinois and Delaware Senate races would seem to have little in common, but they do share a common element: they are being held for the seats vacated by Barack Obama and Joe Biden after their victory in November 2008.

Are voters inclined to send more Democrats to the Senate to work with them?

The polls suggest the answer is “no.” Not with Mike Castle, Delaware Republican, ahead of Democrat Chris Coons 55-32 (MoE 4.5), for a dominant 99% lead probability.

Also not with Republican Mark Kirk holding down Democrat Alexi Giannoulias 46-38, for an 81% lead probability. This result in particular is a remarkable turnaround from Obama’s 2004 election to the Senate in which he lapped Republican import Alan Keyes 70-27.

It would be hard enough for the President if Republicans take the House and make the Senate close, but if Republicans take his and his Vice President’s old seats, that will add insult to injury.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • kowalski

    There’s a lot of time, and I don’t try much to shape opinion. One way I can see it going is this (it’s not the only way):

    What’ll happen is that people who thought they were Democract will just go on ahead and vote Democract, and a few of their neihbors will vote Republican, hon, but somestimes that’s not such a bad thing if thay have a ratioanalaise like higher taxes to make them switch. They don’t undertstand it anyways, but on the other hand there’s just this big thing of voting like everyone else has always done because most of the time they’ve been OK even sometimes they haven’t been, but oh, its all lost on most people. All those poor people like us, and the Catholic Church can’t do nothing. Why aren’t they doing something?

    Up there at John Hopkins they think about it, I’ll go vote for whoever they recommend, since they have lots of smart people supposedly, my daughter knows a girl who’s a scholar there, all considered, and I just don’t want much to be bothrered, really, except that we just try to survive, you know? That’ll be the vote, you know, whatever comes from that. Plus Black people, and hickspanics.

  • kowalski

    This is one of those totally tongue-in-cheek Kowalski nonsequiturs so just take it as it is….

  • kowalski

    My serious guess is that the IL and DE senate seats will stay (D) in this election cycle, in the fullness of time. I don’t count on either of them switching, I think it’s probably too soon to even talk about it, but everyone is anyway, trying to predict the future, which they cannot do.

    I am a pessimist. I don’t believe in polling this early.

  • Paige Dulli

    A perfect example of “How Obama Got Elected”.

  • kowalski

    In Illinois the publicity will win out and the Democrat will finally win. The public disconnect is strong but this is when it really doesn’t matter.

    In Delaware things are a little more murky but believe me Joe Biden’s people are already out in force, they’re not going to allow the seat to be taken without a fight, and Delaware is already one of the most beholden states to the Federal Government. They’re tiny but reliable. That’s Delaware. I wouldn’t get anyone’s hopes up. It’s a longstanding tradition.

  • kowalski

    Well, there were a few other things but basically that’s not too far off.

  • bk

    Or is there an official name for a four-bagger like the string above?

  • http://www.dienekesplace.blogspot.com Dienekes’ Place

    1) Massive GOTV capabilities through the unions; and
    2) No scruples (i.e., ACORN and its newly scattered nuts).

  • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

    n/t

  • samiran

    In Illinois the publicity will win out and the Democrat will finally win.

    What are you smoking?

    Which publicity? The D’s candidate’s bank collapsing? Or his associations with mob bosses?

    Kirk is a *very* squishy republican, but he’s also an accomplished congressman, and very popular in Illinois. Giannoulious [sp?] is an untested tool with a closet that is *very publicly* full of skeletons. He’s unelectable.

    They’d have a better shot at it if he withdrew.

    Don’t forget that Obama replaced Peter Fitzgerald, a Republican. Illinois is not as strong of a Democratic stronghold as people think; in the early 2000s it was mostly purple, and I think a realignment is occurring in Illinois right now.

    Right now, all the big Democratic names in Illinois are immersed in scandal. The Blagojevich thing is exploding. Quinn’s campaign is falling apart. Giannoulis is in pure meltdown. Scott Lee Cohen, the winner of the D primary for Lt. Governor withdrew. Todd Stroger is in meltdown over a hiring scandal that is exploding on the local news (its so bad that the Democratic County Councilmen are saying things like, “At least when I get voted out of office, I want the voters to know that I tried to clean things up on my way out. We should be ashamed and embarrassed.”)

    The Illinois Democratic Party is in a total meltdown, and although the Illinois Republicans are not organized enough to win big, it would be *very* surprising for Kirk to not succeed.

  • redneck_hippie

    is or isn’t going to be an Independent candidate for governor. I doubt he decides to do it, but then, that would be crediting him with sense.

  • redtillimdead

    Mike Castle has been in statewide office since the 1980′s. Those voters are used to voting for Mike Castle every two years, not Democrats.

  • IJB
  • septembergurl

    hated McCain more than they feared Obama.

  • SteveLA

    All this time I thought it was because Obama got more votes than McCain and that’s why he was elected.

    The horror, the horror, just imagine If only _________ fill in the blank had run and won the primary, that would have shown Johnny Mac what real Republicans thought of him.

    Silly me.

  • http://janicecantore.com Janice Cantore

    As I read articles like this one from races around the country, and I listen talkers like Hugh Hewitt talk constantly about Tim Burns and the Murtha seat, I’m encouraged. Here in California it’s anyone’s guess how things will play out, my dream is to see the door closed on Boxer, but there is a race here I’ve heard little about, it’s California’s 29th, Adam Schiff. Schiff took the seat from Rogan after the Clinton impeachment. The area leans dem, but there is a guy named John Colbert challenging him and I’ve heard very little about him except that he is endorsed by the Pasadena Patriots. Schiff needs to be retired as well, I went one of his town hall meetings and he is as bad as Boxer in terms of arrogance and condicension. I can’t find polling data on this race, the district is where my parents vote and they are die hard democrats, I would sure like to see this one in the R column, Neil, do you know anything about John Colbert?

  • IJB

    Schiff beat Rogan in 2000 back when the district was CA-27.

    After the 2000 Census, the district was massively reconfigured to become the “new” CA-29 so as to permanently reelect Schiff and any Democrat who ran there – it’s now a D+14 district. (Something similar happened with the “new” CA-27, which is now Brad Sherman’s district.)

    So just because the ‘old’ CA-27 gave Republicans an ‘even’ shot does mean the same about the ‘new’ CA-29 unfortunately…

    (And, I can relate – my own district is also a D+14 district, which hasn’t stopped about half-a-dozen Republicans from running in my district in the Primary!)

  • Raven

    I’ve had discussions with people that went almost exactly like that that I ended by asking them to please just not vote. They don’t know anything and aren’t interested in learning. The best thing they can possibly do for their country in that case is nothing. Just don’t vote. Sit at home and watch TV or whatever. Go hunting. Just don’t vote.
    Most of them don’t listen.
    Some of them actually get angry enough that they start researching so as to be able to argue with me.

  • Raven
  • JamesSmith130

    In normal circumstances the Dim would win Illinois, even in a year like this. But Alexi G is so corrupt, and Kirk is RINO, thus I think enough independents and Dims will vote Kirk to pull him through.

    I’m 50/50 that Brady (a true conservative) will beat Quinn. Quinn is probably going to 100% negative on Brady, who may have trouble because he isn’t from the Chicago area.

  • henryrearden

    everything was very strange. Not too many people knew Obama, but once he announced his run for the office, the Republicans couldn’t find anyone to run against him. The only person who offered to run against Obama was Alan Keyes, who had a rather checkered history. Most Republicans wouldn’t have anything to do with Keyes and his campaign was a farce. Keyes was a placeholder and a bad one at that. Where did all the opposition go in 2004? It almost seemed like candidates were being somehow warned off.

    This would have been understandable if the campaign was for mayor of Chicago. Republicans haven’t been able to put up a viable candidate for mayor for decades. But for US Senator the Republicans could usually field a candidate.

    In fact, one potential candidate was interested. That was Mike Ditka, former head coach of the Chicago Bears. No one really knew his politics although he was set to run as a Republican. He had name recognition, probably a better than average ability to raise campaign $$, and whatever you might think of him, people in Chicago liked Iron Mike. He evoked the Chicago tough guy image. But he pulled out of the running and never really explained why.

    The rest, as they say, unfortunately is history.

    I’m from Chicago. My father voted in at least three elections after he passed away. Now that’s what they cal a “likely voter” in Chicago. Besides the cemetery voters, I knew exactly how the elections were rigged since I was in elementary school. We knew Daley was going to turn Illinois for Kennedy in 1960, there was no doubt what the outcome would be. Although Daley’s son isn’t anywhere near the stature of his old man, the Chicago Machine should not be discounted. They aren’t the least bit bothered if their candidate is a crook!

  • Adjoran

    Jack Ryan, who was forced to withdraw when sealed files from his divorce case were mysteriously leaked.

    That sort of stuff tends to happen to those who stand in Obama’s way. Does anyone seriously think John Edwards’ sins would have been ignored by the media if he had been the main challenger to Obama, instead of Hillary?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It was racism.

    Obama benefited from the “Let’s make history” racist mumbo jumbo and that was that.

  • redneck_hippie

    who knew? I thought it was GWB.

  • Martin Knight

    Importing Alan Keyes over was a bonehead maneuver that should be studied for its sheer stupidity. But then, the ILGOP Chairman was Judy Baar Topinka so I was far from surprised …

  • http://janicecantore.com Janice Cantore

    Thanks for the information. Even thought the odds are against it I would love to see that pompus ass Schiff defeated. Driving through parts of Pasadena there are Colbert lawn signs everywhere. I hope to persuade my parents to check the R column this time around. My congreeman is Jerry Lewis, I don’t vote in 29.

  • zuckey6

    Remeember Dewey lost. Disenchantment with Obama will be very important in this November`s election. I think Democrats wil lose both NewYork seats the Pennsykvania, ILlinois, Nebraska,Nevada and California Senate seats and between seventy and seventy-seven seats in the House of Representatives.

  • septembergurl

    to spell everything out lest the Steve LAs force you to laboriously explain your point.

    1. I supported McCain from the getgo, ie before the convention,(on Redstate & often receiving disses for my supposed RINOness) so your second paragraph is moronic even for you.

    2. I voted for McCain, believe he would have been a fine, or at least OK, President. In the sense that heisin’t an America-hating Marxist.

    3. I learned enough about about Obama before the election to believe he would be a dangerous President, combining as he does radical leftism with unusual ignorance and naivete.

    4. My point was that Obama gained from the depression of Republicans who (not incorrectly) despised McCain for various RINO and hence stayed home or voted for Obama.

    5. This is not a dynamic that will be salient in the 2010 or 2012 election.

    clear?

  • Swamp_Yankee

    I know Scott Brown already won, but it matters. And Harry Reid will lose too.

    POTUS
    VPOTUS
    De Facto Leader
    De Jure Leader

    All four seats will switch in 2010. Amazing.

  • Freedomlover

    Alan Keyes did not offer to run. Judy Barr Topinka, who was the state Republican chairman, picked him. She ignored the candidate that was second in the primary to replace Ryan when Ryan was forced out of the running. The Republican voters had no voice in the selection of Keyes. Topinka, who is running now for State Comptroller is an embarrassment and should not even be elected for dog catcher much less a position that holds the state’s checkbook. Political corruption in Illinois is not limited to the Democrat party. A famous picture of Judy Barr Topinka shows her dancing with a former Republican Governor who now lives in a Federal penitentiary.

  • edintexas

    Because of a number of factors:

    He wasn’t George Bush. After 8 years of demonizing Bush, that was a big plus, In fact they think it still is a plus as one Democrat strategist claims they will again be “running against Bush” this November.

    Most people didn’t know anything about Dear Leader, other than he was a well spoken, clean – well, you know the rest of the Biden quote. And the media certainly wasn’t about to upset the proverbial apple cart by telling the people anything negative about the man, or even consider inquiring about any facts, such as his scholastic record, etc.

    McCain was bound and determined to conduct a “gentlemanly” losing campaign. Since we know that negative information regarding Dear Leader’s voting record in both the IL and US Senate was available, it wasn’t that McCain didn’t know what to try and use against him, McCain didn’t think it was polite to “go negative”.

    And, lest we forget, the Republican Administration (and most in Congress) had tried to turn themselves into Democrat lite (often supporting similar domestic programs without the lack of morals to constantly propagandize and go for the kill every time). It was past time to “throw the bums out”.

  • JHancock

    Not Obamunist RED…. but “We love individual freedom” red. “Don’t tread on me” red. “Respect for life” red and “I take responsibility for my own actions” red!!!

    I can’t wait for the can of whoop A$$ we are going to hand to liberals this fall—Obama won’t just be a one term president, but with our huge victories in house and senate-he’ll effectively be a half term president as he won’t be able to get another liberal policy through EVER!!!