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Haley looking to avoid runoff in today’s primary [Updated x 2]

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 8th, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Sheheen Haley

PPP’s latest on the South Carolina Governor’s race doesn’t even cover the Democrats. The assumption must be that Vincent Sheheen has it wrapped up, I suppose.

So, on to the Republican side, where Nikki Haley hopes to win an absolute majority and avoid a runoff.

The poll shows Haley with an overwhelming lead at 43 to Gresham Barrett’s 23, Henry McMaster’s 16, and Andre Bauer’s 12 (MoE 3.1). Bauer’s 12 happens to correspond well with the 13% who believe the personal accusations made against Nikki Haley in this race.

At 43 with an MoE of 3.1, Haley would seem to have a small (about 1% per my model) chance of avoiding a runoff. So it’s important to note that Haley also crosses 50% in each runoff possibility. Update: I’m being told the runoff cutoff is 40%. By my rough mental estimate, that gives her around a 95% of avoiding a runoff per this poll. Update x 2: I’m now definitively told it’s a majority to avoid a runoff.

So it’s time to start seeing some Haley/Sheheen polling, eh?

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What I’ve read has implied the cutoff was a majority. Yours is the first I’ve heard of the cutoff being less.

  • jaybo

    I just heard it in passing on a news program yesterday and wondered if I heard it right.

  • partyof1

    Haley is most likely to face McMaster in the runoff, slated to be held June 22 if no one candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday.

    A runoff election is likely become even dirtier than this primary has already been, Ms. Haley acknowledged with a laugh. ?That?s why I want 50 plus one,? she said

    http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/2010/06/08/haley_campaign_rolls_to_finish_3782.php

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If this poll is right: at a majority cutoff, a runoff is almost certain. At a 40% cutoff, a runoff is rather unlikely.

  • jaybo

    I don’t see 40% as a rule here. What I do see is a formula that determines what a “majority” is.

    SECTION 7 17 600. No candidate shall be declared nominated in first primary without majority vote.

    No candidate shall be declared nominated in a first primary election unless he received a majority of the votes cast for the office for which he was a candidate. The question of a majority vote shall be determined by the number of votes cast for any particular office and not by the whole number of votes cast in the primary.

    SECTION 7 17 610. What constitutes majority vote.

    It is the intent of the South Carolina General Assembly that the following method be used in determining what candidates have received a majority vote for a particular office and are thereby entitled to be nominated on the first ballot according to the terms of Sections 7 17 600 and 7 13 50.
    (1) If a candidate for a single office is to be selected, and there is more than one person seeking nomination, the majority shall be ascertained by dividing the total vote cast for all candidates by two. Any excess of the sum so ascertained shall be a majority, and the candidate who obtains a majority shall be declared the nominee.
    (2) If nominees for two or more offices (constituting a group) are to be selected, and there are more persons seeking nomination than there are offices, the majority shall be ascertained by dividing the total vote cast for all candidates by the number of positions to be filled, and by dividing the result by two. Any excess of the sum so ascertained shall be a majority, and the candidates who obtain a majority shall be declared the nominees in the first primary. If more candidates obtain a majority than there are positions to be filled, those having the highest vote (equal to the number of positions to be filled) shall be declared the nominees.

  • jaybo

    The SC law pretty clearly states that you need 50% plus one.

  • jaybo

    PPP (D); 6/5 – 6/6; 998 LV; 43 (Haley); 23 (Barrett); 16 (McMaster); 12 (Bauer).

    If you add the total of all the percentages you get 94%.

    Maybe the rationale is that a 40% translates into 50% plus one votes.

  • Oz

    Two weeks.

  • http://truthupfront.blogspot.com jsanzone

    With the robocalls, but I’m not sure how much that will go to help him at this point…And what about Barrett, who’s been polling ahead?

  • Adjoran

    There have been several cases in multi-candidate primaries where the winner was close to 50% and the runner-up in the 20s where they just conceded and didn’t contest the run-off.

    For instance, if the last poll held up and it was 43-23, Barrett would have to more than double his share of the vote, while Haley would only need to increase her share by less than 20%. Since the supporters of the defeated candidates rarely show up for the run-off, and the leading candidate’s supporters are generally motivated, it makes it almost impossible to make up that kind of ground.

    So Barrett – or McMaster – might decide to concede in the name of party unity, saving money and hard feelings, and earning a bit of gratitude from probably the next Governor of the state in the process. A wise move for someone who doesn’t see their political career as over now.

    The other important thing is that Bauer, the bottom-feeding little rat, finishes dead last. Single digits would be fitting, especially if it were his votes, not %. Get this scalawag out of our politics now! And take his hot tub buddies Marchant and Folks with him!