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Fisher leads Portman despite Ohio rejecting the PPACA

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 30th, 2010 at 02:30 PM  | 

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port man fisher

We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling.

The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.

Quinnipiac has Fisher up 42-40 (MoE 3), despite the poll having Ohio oppose the “federal health care overhaul” 55-36. PPP’s results are only slightly different, showing Fisher up 40-38 (MoE 4.5) and “President Obama’s health care plan” opposed 53-38.

These are large margins of opposition to the PPACA. Is Portman hurting himself by not coming out more strongly against it, contrary to the conventional wisdom that a moderate approach is safest in a swingy state like Ohio, and too much opposition to the President’s most important accomplishment to date is a bad idea in a state he carried? I think it could be the case.

Repeal, then replace! Nobody likes Obamacare so let’s get loud against it!

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Swamp_Yankee
  • philhoganjr

    this isn’t the year to be nebulous out on the campaign trail. that was ’09 with chris christie (and to a lesser extent bob mcdonnell) when a lot of voters weren’t sure how obama’s agenda was going to work. now that we know it’s been a failure, it’s up to portman, kasich and co. to differentiate themselves as much as possible from the president, speaker pelosi, harry reid and the liberal agenda. that strategy probably doesn’t fly in the real blue states (ca, il, nj, ny), but ohio is, for all intents and purposes, a red state in this electoral environment.

  • earlgrey

    Was this likely voters or registered voters? Please tell me Portman is the one on the right. The guy on the left looks toasted.

    Any good news for us today Neil?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Portman *is* the one on the right. :-)

    Later today I also have a favorable LAsen poll queued up.

  • dave2131

    Did anybody see this piece in the WAPO:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/30/AR2010063000438.html?hpid=topnews

    Health Care Reform Favorables are up. Although, there isn’t much information on the poll here, like the split in D/R/I or age group or registered voters vs likely voters.

    But then again, the only way to point out the negatives to some is for it to appear on the LSM, which I don’t see happening.

  • JamesSmith130

    is that he is too tied to Washington. That is the only reason why this race is competitive, Lee Fisher is an extreme liberal, but he hasn’t been in Washington. This is something similar to what is going on in Indiana with Dan Coats (a race that I think will be a lot closer than it is today.)

    I think an outsider conservative would have won this seat easy. As it is, it is a real tossup, and may be the only Democrat gain in the Senate.

  • philhoganjr

    separately, good news re: vitter, but can we talk a little bit about senator burr and the (somewhat) recent rasmussen poll that showed him tied with marshall? i understand marshall’s name i.d. is likely high on the back of a primary and a run-off, and i also know burr keeps a pretty low profile in d.c. but there’s simply no reason for him to be tied with marshall at this stage in the game. a loss in north carolina in this environment would be devastating. i imagine her negatives will move up as people find out just how liberal she is, but that poll should have sounded the alarm bells.

  • Kyle-MI

    I think part of the explanation for the poor performances of both Portman and Kasich so far is a branding problem by the Ohio GOP. What I mean is that the voters of Ohio just don’t trust anyone labeled as a Republican. I think they have been burned by, most prominently, former Gov. Taft but also by the the weak performances of both former Sen. DeWine and current Sen. Voinovich. There also seems to be some tension between the Ohio GOP leadership and the average GOP voter.

  • http://www.dcworksforus.com Kenny Solomon

    Gotta be him.

    Former Ohio Attorney General.

    One of the founders of something called ‘Handgun Control, Inc. that morphed into what’s now known as The Brady Campaign.

    Somebody lemme know if that am be hizzonner, ok ?

  • EagleWatcher

    Just sayin’

  • rdelbov

    Both of these guys are solid conservatives and will ultimately do well. Are they tinged a bit by DC and Ohio GOP ties–you bet. I suspect Bob Taft’s negatives are still worse then Stricklands and that’s saying a lot.

    Here’s the good news for both.

    1. Ohio’s economy stinks and Obama/Strickland are at the helm. There are tons of undecided voters and most are in the middle or to the right of center. I would rather be Portman/Kasich then Fisher/Strickland right now if the battle was in the middle or right of middle.

    2. These two polls are registered voter polls and that means for this year about 50% of them will not vote. In Ohio registered voter polls already lean towards the urban/democratic vote as those counties have the higher registered voter numbers but the lowest turnouts. For instance Cuyahago has 13% of the registered voters but only 11% of the actual turnout in 2006. So the big urban counties turnouts Cuyahago(44%)-Summtt(55%)Lucas(49%)Franklin(50%) are all well behind the statewide % turnout of 56% in 2006. How about factoring in the Republican urge to vote in Ohio. GOP was up in 2010 compared to 2006 in comparison to the democratic turnout. National survey after survey shows the GOP fired up and yet these two registered voter surveys show 2008 type turnout.

    I think you can safely add 6 or 8 percent to these poll numbers but is better to still run hard? I urge the GOP candidates to run like they are tied and fight hard every day.

  • http://truthupfront.blogspot.com jsanzone

    The incumbent Dem. Gov. Strickland has held a slim, but steady, lead over his challenger, former Rep. Kasich.

    It may still be too early to judge if this is a case of bad nominees, bad messaging, or just low name recognition. But Ohio is an important state to keep “red,” especially for 2012…winning the governorship and open Senate seat would certainly go a long way to do that.

  • Tbone

    When you have a hammer, use it!

    With an issue like Obamacare running 55-36, these guys ought to be tying themselves to repeal as loud as they can holler.

  • proudgop

    1. Ohio has lost a lot people ( I bet most were Republican voters)

    2. PPP Poll showed Fisher getting 14% of Republicans that seems awfully suspicious to me

    3. Portman has a huge financial advantage not sure if he is starting to use it yet? He should

  • Ausonius

    The Taft debacle – 8 years of Republican control and taxes went up!!! on top of that, scandals and regulations and Ohio’s business climate began to rival NY’s and California’s – has made the George Wallace phrase “not a dime’s worth of difference” come true here.

    I posted this on Sunday:

    “Here in Columbus, Ohio GOP governor candidate John Kasich is attacked practically every hour, on the major TV stations, in a class-warfare ad charging him with taking $500,000 while working at Lehman Brothers and recommending certain investments that ?cost Ohio seniors $458 million dollars!?

    The mellow, omniscient, and confidential voice says:
    ?Ask John Kasich how he got rich ?at Lehman Brothers!?

    These ads have been running for many weeks already.

    Not one ad from Kasich has been seen.

    Another class-warfare (and very hokey) ad offers an attack against Republican Robert Gibbs, saying he ?voted for the Taft tax increases? (true – Republicans in Ohio blew their chances under Taft by acting like Dems) and ?gave tax breaks to golf courses!? (You then hear a crowd booing on the ad!)

    The ad comes from little twerp Zach Space (Dem-OH-18) and again is broadcast quite often.

    Not one ad from Gibbs has been seen.

    The Dems are playing their cards early here: the only bright spot might be that not many people are paying attention yet.”

  • ladyimpactohio

    As a resident 2 MILES from the mega-tornado 1 month ago. Instead of tooling around all 88 counties yapping about jobs, he should have been in MY TOWN rolling up his sleeves and helping out all those who lost EVERYTHING! Including checkbooks, driver’s licenses, homes et al.

    That is all I have to say. And INCIDENTALLY! FEMA has denied help for all these people. 5 dead. One sucked up in the tornado. 50 homes leveled to the ground. High school is toast. NOT ONE WORD FROM PORTMAN! I detest Stickland but at least he was here.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The GOP isn’t much less liked than the Dems righ tnow.

    There’s only a few points difference, but I don’t have the polls open right now so I can’t be more specific.

  • ladyimpactohio

    Plus he now flipped on 2nd amendment when he was part of Clinton gun ban. The leopard may SAY he’s changed his spots, but I have my doubts. And FYI KASICH should have been here TOO with PORTMAN after mega tornado hit. As a resident of OH where all the drama is gonna be focused, this is what I know. Ohio will AGAIN be a big mess in election 2010. Is already happening with Dems trying to get names of CCW permit holders cuz NRA gave endorsement to Strickland.

  • IJB

    Are you seriously trying to claim that Portman and Kasich are “moderates”?!

    When people try to stretch definitions that far, words cease to have any meaning.

  • jcincy

    I live in Ohio Neil. I really don’t know much about polls. I know that Taft and the GOP establishment left a nasty, corrupt stain on this state. Dewine and Voinovich’s wimpy performance in DC didn’t help the party either.

    The GOP has been fortunate that Strickland has been a weak governor and he’s not well respected. Lt. Governor Fisher flies under the radar and is undefined. The mood in Cincinnati is anti-establishment. Kasich and Portman are establishment politicians. To date none of the candidates have done anything inspiring to get the people of Ohio excited about their candidacy.

    In the 1st district of Ohio the landscape is a bit different. Driehaus (D) has proven he is not a ‘raging moderate’, but a Pelosi minion. Steve Chabot’s time in Congress proved that he is a true conservative. He is a candidate conservatives are excited to support. He could use your support as well.

    http://www.stevechabot.com/

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If you read RS you’re not an average voter. :-)

    I doubt the average voter thinks about “brands,” “framing,” or any of the other fads.

  • ladyimpactohio

    none of you mentioned that SoS ACORN/queen/crook/KarynGillette/ProjectVote/SOS ProjectVote/SorosBacked Jennifer Brunner is still in charge of the Nov. election.

    And all the troubles in OH lay with the fault of one R from Toledo. Namely Tom Noe. Coingate.

  • ladyimpactohio

    ALSO we had a H/C opt-out on Nov. ballot WHICH ACORN QUEEN JENNIFER BRUNNER derailed and set us back by one month before OH Supremes overturned her. Today is deadline to get on ballot. Need 650K signatories. No where near.

  • ladyimpactohio

    I aint’t a pessimist I’m a realist. I live here, remember. Bad messaging, bad ads, bad choices. Both Kasich & Portman are low name recognition. But they have made mistakes. Strickland got endorsement of NRA & that means a lot in OH. Plus he got the Castle Doctrine passed. Kasich has bad track record on 2nd amendment even tho he says he’s “turned” now. He did what I call a fake video of him shooting a gun at a fair or something about a year ago. Don’t trust him even tho he’s an R.

  • cactusjack

    no Republican will ever get to the White House without winning Ohio & its electoral college votes. He was right. That is why the last three pres elections we have collectively sat around the TV election day at 11Eastern/10Central PM,waiting to see which way Ohio would go, because it was kind of the determiner or lynchpin of whoever wins the whole election. The only Republican who could even in theory win without Ohio, would be Romney because he would pull Michigan to offset Ohio – and what are the odds of that in reality?.

  • ladyimpactohio
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They’ve never accomplished anything.

    They only exist to give money.

  • ladyimpactohio

    Ohio is gonna be a mess again. It’s always been a mess and with Brunner still in the pilot seat it’s already been a mess. And this is still June. Crapola started in March when she made unreasonable and dictatorial edicts for voters switching parties in the primary.You guys can have all the polls you want but is still up to Brunner who went all the way to SCOTUS in 2008 to get her way and made the OH RNC scramble like chickens with not their heads, but other ends cut off.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    Having grown up in a state where the Democrat machine ran things. It seems to me that for a long time Ohio was sort of a Republican machine.

    With too much power and a relatively ineffectual opposition it is so easy for corruption to take hold. And Republicans are certainly not immune to corruption.

    After a while you stop doing the things that people expect from their local government and you are sent packing. Too much feathering the nest and not enough real constituent services.

  • Kyle-MI

    Hey, it’s your state. You have to live there. When the state economy is in a much worse mess and all your liberties have been trashed you can always take comfort in knowing that at least the Dems make show visits to natural disaster areas.

  • Kyle-MI

    It is not that the average Ohio voter thinks, “Wow the GOP brand stinks.” They think, “Wow the GOP stinks.” It is still a branding problem. You can call it branding, you can call reputation, you can call it ham and swiss cheese on rye, but it still boils down to the same problem.

  • ladyimpactohio
  • ladyimpactohio

    But so is Michigan’s. Even Glenn Beck commented on Strickland’s horrible budget. So the choices we have are Kasich who is certainly better than Strickland but I have my doubts about certain aspects. And Fisher, which is a no-brainer there. Any candidate who goes on tape shirtless writing a campaign ad has to be a little off. However, doubt OH RNC is gonna use that clip. And Portman who is a Washington elite whom I feel has not used the best of judgment in certain areas.

    There is no perfect candidate. So is a matter of choosing who is better.

  • ladyimpactohio

    cuz apparently you haven’t seen my posts on them.

    Ignore OFA at our own peril.

  • Crowe

    A few things that give us hope in Ohio from those polls:

    Favorability rating and what it means
    According to Quinnipiac, Fisher’s like/dislike/not sure is 28/17/54, while Portman’s is 26/7/66. PPP has Fisher at 28/27/45 and Portman at 22/25/53.

    it means… Portman has more room to define himself. But he’ll have to do that well, and before the Dems get a good chance to, because according to the both polls, Ohioans overwhelmingly believe politicians in Columbus (not those in Washington) are better suited to fixing Ohio’s problems. (Tells you how poorly we Ohioans view Washington politicians if we still favor the Mark Danns and Bob Tafts and the other crooks who have screwed things up for us here!)

    Support Obama?

    In one very interesting piece, a plurality of Ohioans want a senator who will generally oppose Barack Obama’s policies. As Obama’s numbers in the state continue to decline as they must with continued and growing unemployment, the impending double-dip recession poised to nail us in late summer, his handling of the oil disaster and Afghanistan continuing to suck, and his continued power grabs turning off more Americans, that plurality will likely grow.

    So it comes down to name recognition and Portman defining himself as the one opposed to Obama.

    I didn’t get quite as much out of those polls for Kasich, but I’d bet the same would generally hold true.

  • http://guyaverage.blogspot.com guyaverage

    …and has already been to DC and agreed to support Eric Cantor’s defunding (NOT repeal) of Obamacare; he stated this publicly during a candidate forum during the Ohio-18 primary. He is the same old warmed-over RINO Pablum that the GOP has been force-feeding voters for years. Will he lose to Zac Space? It is quite possible that he will.

  • http://guyaverage.blogspot.com guyaverage

    …just like the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act road signs that double as Democrat Re-election signs.

    The vast majority of Americans have no spine nor a brain, sort of like a character-compilation from The Wizard of Oz. They’ll likely pull the Democrat lever in the fall.