this isn’t the year to be nebulous out on the campaign trail. that was ’09 with chris christie (and to a lesser extent bob mcdonnell) when a lot of voters weren’t sure how obama’s agenda was going to work. now that we know it’s been a failure, it’s up to portman, kasich and co. to differentiate themselves as much as possible from the president, speaker pelosi, harry reid and the liberal agenda. that strategy probably doesn’t fly in the real blue states (ca, il, nj, ny), but ohio is, for all intents and purposes, a red state in this electoral environment.

Was this likely voters or registered voters? Please tell me Portman is the one on the right. The guy on the left looks toasted.

Any good news for us today Neil?

is that he is too tied to Washington. That is the only reason why this race is competitive, Lee Fisher is an extreme liberal, but he hasn’t been in Washington. This is something similar to what is going on in Indiana with Dan Coats (a race that I think will be a lot closer than it is today.)

I think an outsider conservative would have won this seat easy. As it is, it is a real tossup, and may be the only Democrat gain in the Senate.

I think part of the explanation for the poor performances of both Portman and Kasich so far is a branding problem by the Ohio GOP. What I mean is that the voters of Ohio just don’t trust anyone labeled as a Republican. I think they have been burned by, most prominently, former Gov. Taft but also by the the weak performances of both former Sen. DeWine and current Sen. Voinovich. There also seems to be some tension between the Ohio GOP leadership and the average GOP voter.

Gotta be him.

Former Ohio Attorney General.

One of the founders of something called ‘Handgun Control, Inc. that morphed into what’s now known as The Brady Campaign.

Somebody lemme know if that am be hizzonner, ok ?

Just sayin’

Both of these guys are solid conservatives and will ultimately do well. Are they tinged a bit by DC and Ohio GOP ties–you bet. I suspect Bob Taft’s negatives are still worse then Stricklands and that’s saying a lot.

Here’s the good news for both.

1. Ohio’s economy stinks and Obama/Strickland are at the helm. There are tons of undecided voters and most are in the middle or to the right of center. I would rather be Portman/Kasich then Fisher/Strickland right now if the battle was in the middle or right of middle.

2. These two polls are registered voter polls and that means for this year about 50% of them will not vote. In Ohio registered voter polls already lean towards the urban/democratic vote as those counties have the higher registered voter numbers but the lowest turnouts. For instance Cuyahago has 13% of the registered voters but only 11% of the actual turnout in 2006. So the big urban counties turnouts Cuyahago(44%)-Summtt(55%)Lucas(49%)Franklin(50%) are all well behind the statewide % turnout of 56% in 2006. How about factoring in the Republican urge to vote in Ohio. GOP was up in 2010 compared to 2006 in comparison to the democratic turnout. National survey after survey shows the GOP fired up and yet these two registered voter surveys show 2008 type turnout.

I think you can safely add 6 or 8 percent to these poll numbers but is better to still run hard? I urge the GOP candidates to run like they are tied and fight hard every day.

The incumbent Dem. Gov. Strickland has held a slim, but steady, lead over his challenger, former Rep. Kasich.

It may still be too early to judge if this is a case of bad nominees, bad messaging, or just low name recognition. But Ohio is an important state to keep “red,” especially for 2012…winning the governorship and open Senate seat would certainly go a long way to do that.

When you have a hammer, use it!

With an issue like Obamacare running 55-36, these guys ought to be tying themselves to repeal as loud as they can holler.

A few things that give us hope in Ohio from those polls:

Favorability rating and what it means
According to Quinnipiac, Fisher’s like/dislike/not sure is 28/17/54, while Portman’s is 26/7/66. PPP has Fisher at 28/27/45 and Portman at 22/25/53.

it means… Portman has more room to define himself. But he’ll have to do that well, and before the Dems get a good chance to, because according to the both polls, Ohioans overwhelmingly believe politicians in Columbus (not those in Washington) are better suited to fixing Ohio’s problems. (Tells you how poorly we Ohioans view Washington politicians if we still favor the Mark Danns and Bob Tafts and the other crooks who have screwed things up for us here!)

Support Obama?

In one very interesting piece, a plurality of Ohioans want a senator who will generally oppose Barack Obama’s policies. As Obama’s numbers in the state continue to decline as they must with continued and growing unemployment, the impending double-dip recession poised to nail us in late summer, his handling of the oil disaster and Afghanistan continuing to suck, and his continued power grabs turning off more Americans, that plurality will likely grow.

So it comes down to name recognition and Portman defining himself as the one opposed to Obama.

I didn’t get quite as much out of those polls for Kasich, but I’d bet the same would generally hold true.