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Rubio battles back

Crist Rubio

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it.

I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

It’s a carpet bomb poll, matching up Rubio and Crist against the two likely nominees for the Democrats: Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene. The ordering is the same for both though: Rubio and Crist are 1-2 at 36 and 34 against Meek’s 15, and they’re at 37 and 33 against Greene’s 18 (MoE 4.5).

All these little differences strike me as random sampling noise in a race that doesn’t change no matter which candidate the Democrats put up. Crist so far has squeezed the Democrats out.

How long he’ll manage that remains to be seen. Rasmussen has his job approval down 7 points in a month to 53%, and he simultaneously snags a quarter of Republicans and a majority of all of those who oppose repeal of the PPACA. That to me is a sign that Crist is trying to please a number of his old Republican voters while still reaching out to left of center independents. I don’t see how he keeps both.

Plus after the primary in August, the Democrats will have a clear nominee and that will surely give the primary winner a boost, whichever of Greene and Meek comes out on top. That will further erode Crist’s position.

So for now it’s a two way race with the Democrat far behind, but we could see this become a proper three way race by the fall, or we might see Rubio run away with it. Much will depend on Crist and how he resolves his tightrope strategy.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

COMMENTS

  • Finrod

    From http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/election_2010_senate_balance_of_power :

    There are currently two independents in the Senate, and Crist is running as an independent candidate in Florida. For purposes of the Balance of Power projections, all three are counted as Democrats.

  • realskinny

    with Crist after the primary.

  • fpete13527

    See link…..Charlie has no substance
    http://bit.ly/a0hkts

    I have no idea on how he continues to fake it so well …other than that he has zero integrity and that he has 100% backing from the extreme left business community….. and that he is still reaping endorsement value from the brilliant NRSC.

  • acat

    Rubio doesn’t.

    Orange Charlie still has a willing media to follow him around, and a good bit of time before the oil stops soaking the beaches (good human interest photo opportunities) and before tourist season (he can pretend all is well with the economy) so …

    The Rubio campaign needs to get it in gear Real Soon Now. Start using the “upstart candidate” moxie that was shown early on.

    Mew

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    When Christ took a walk to survey the damage….

  • E Pluribus Unum

    To my knowledge, he has not been asked, and not volunteered anything on this. I think once he is forced to say (even if we don’t trust his answer) he will be unable to keep both sides of his coalition. He’ll lose one end or the other.

  • earlgrey

    I just sent a check last week to his campaign. Seriously his campaign has been pretty aggressive (in a good way) seeking funding, I hope the fundraising is going well.

  • crosley

    I think Rubio pulls it out in the end, but I’m amazed so many people have stuck with Crist. I thought he was done when he decided to run as an “independent”. I would think it’s obvious to most voters it was a desperate and dishonest move.

    My worry is that Crist cuts a deal with Democrats and he gets their behind the scenes endorsement, since the actual Democrat nominee is a lost cause. I still think Rubio wins, but the fact this race is within the margin of error is giving me heartburn.

  • RedBeard

    The ignorant dopes (and sadly many ignorant dopes do vote) are probably choosing Crist in the polling because they don’t know any other candidates’ names. That’s the hill Rubio needs to climb. With any luck at all, he will.

    A head-to-head debate would be a cake walk for Rubio, who speaks plainly and with conviction. Crist would come off exactly like he is, a shifty, oily, rudderless, self-serving political animal.

    My prediction is that Rubio continues to gain solid support, while Crist loses his barely-there name recognition support. End result: Senator Rubio. And this prediction comes from a negative thinking glass-half-empty kinda guy.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    When every news outlet in the state trumpets that Rubio wins the R primary, then he gets instant name recognition.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Nobody’s paying attention yet. It’d be stupid to “get it in gear Real Soon Now.”

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s not even a hill to climb to get name recognition between now and November when you’re the presumptive R nominee.

    It’s trivial.

  • thelibrul

    If Greene manages to pull it out over Meek then there will be a lot of Democrats either outwardly backing Crist or simply not endorsing either candidate. Greene used to be a Republican and made a lot of money off the foreclosure crises, not exactly things Democrats want to tout. Crist was smart to quickly move center/center-left in order to suck the oxygen out of whoever the Dem nominee will be.

  • acat

    I don’t mean “get it in gear” in terms of doing commercial buys or spending huge bucks, I mean getting the backdrop set for Marco to undercut Crist on the ecological front.

    The Rubio campaign have the opportunity to put their man out in public, visiting beaches – a private citizen can still walk the beach with a flip-cam, right? – and tourist spots that are likely affected – show an interest in the plight of the locals.

    The cost could be kept to next to nothing, this doesn’t need high-end video or broadcast, just some bits of Marco paying attention to the problem, Marco ruining a pair of (cheap) shoes, maybe Marco cleaning an oily bird, Marco talking to a fisherman – ideally with a “for sale” sign on the boat….

    Shoot a bunch of this, post ‘em on YouTube and link from the campaign site and when (not if) Orange Charlie keeps blowing the horrors of the spill, press-release that Marco is – and has been – active on the issue…

    It would be folly to do media buys in this season, I agree, but that’s hardly all that campaigning comes down to, eh? Get the groundwork team, the grass roots team in gear.

    Mew

  • RedBeard

    Crist will, of course, get some votes from the squishy middle, some from disaffected Dems, and a few legacy votes from Republicans without a clue. But I find it impossible to believe that Rubio will not solidify his support among thinking people, both conservatives and so-called “moderates,” and win the contest.

    Crist’s support has to be thin, unenthusiastic, and a bit fragile, while Rubio’s support is solid and growing.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I really don’t see how Crist can keep having it both ways like he is right now.

    The primary will bring clarity. It’ll have to. And yes, eventually someone’s going to ask him which side he’ll caucus with.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • constitutionalconservative

    Rubio will win this race. If the Dems nominate Greene, things could get a bit more tricky, because he is such a terrible candidate that Dems might desert him for Crist.

  • earlgrey
  • Martin Knight
  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    He is really pounding the NO drilling gong. I wonder if he thinks that is enough to get him elected? Heck I don’t know, maybe it is in Florida.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    has been his actual reactions on the AZ immigration law and the issue of oil drilling in the aftermath of the BP leak?

    He has senate-politically-corrected-up in lightning speed.

  • eburke

    The Rubio campaign released a web 60 second web ad yesterday and the *first* thing in the ad was footage of Charlie (prior to leaving the GOP) paying homage to the party of Lincoln and how he’d never leave it because it’s his home followed by footage of Chris Matthews talking about how Crist will be a rising star in the Democratic caucus.

    From what I’ve seen of the saviness of the Rubio campaign team, I’ll wager major dollars that we’ll be seing that kind of footage a *lot* after Labor Day.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think he only entered in the last month or so.

  • concernedflorida

    is how I like to think Team Rubio is managing the current state of the campaign. I read earlier on RCP that when Crist declared Independent, that Rubio pulled all advertising off of tv. Now, as a Florida resident I can attest to this – he was all over the airwaves but nothing now. The logic is that they are saving all of their money for tv advertising until a time closer to the the election.

    This makes sense and it possibly shows a disciplined campaign strategy. They naturally assume a brief bump and a ‘rally around the flag effect’ from Crist’s publicity surrounding the oil spill. But as they let this oil spill fiasco play out, they can capitalize on the weak federal response and Crist’s position which has been to defend the fed’s response.

    Add to that the natural uptick in voter interest and attention as we get closer to November, and it makes sense for Rubio to make a strong push in late summer/early autumn.

    I for one am hoping to volunteer, I would like to get involved with getting out at events and passing out stickers and buttons, so we will see…..

  • concernedflorida

    is a bigger issue than the AZ immigration law….people in Florida take there beaches and waters REAL serious, and I think there is more conflicted emotions regarding off shore drilling – even more so than the other Gulf states which rely on drilling for jobs. Of course The Tanned One is pushing for an eternal constitutional ban on drilling off of FL – which is pure politics because there already is a ban in place….

    A good avenue of attack will continue to be the federal response – I was in the Panhandle a week ago and I can attest to the absolute failure of the feds to act in any competent manner. The local officials have taken it upon themselves, even at the risk of breaking federal law in some cases, to try to protect the beaches and inland waters….

    Which of course begs the eternal, never ending, ad naseum question – why are we not drilling in ANWR?

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    But I do, and his answers were are just vacuous. Maybe he doesn’t deserve my opprobrium for his waffling and PC environment and alternative rubbish, but he sure isn’t the star I thought him to be based on the enthusiasm for him among my people, i.e. redstate. Plus, his knee-jerk (before reading the AZ law) and senate-type handlers statement re AZ law was just embarrassing.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • pirate55

    ….always has been. Marco Rubio will prevail because he is solid on the issues alone and I believe Florida voters will identify with that in the end. I also believe he is smartly waiting until after the August primary to really go after the white haired photo op, lying independent. It is then we will see the clips of Good Old Boy Charlie telling Fox News when directly asked he would only run as a Republican.

    It is then we will hear about Jim Greer’s wonderful management of the RPOF. If you ask me, Charlie is spending too much time on the beaches and still nothing is being done by him for Florida tourism. As I’ve said before the only thing he might be good for is wading into the Gulf of Mexico, so a few tarballs can attach to him.

  • takemccain2

    Once the general campaign is truly on, watch the Rubio camp run great ads showing Crist’s many promises and flip-flops, his hug of Obama, his praise for the fiasco that is the Gulf cleanup plus the many statements he has made where he just plain lied. People will remember and they will not be fooled. That being said, this is Rubio’s race to win or lose and that is why I’m putting my full support to Rubio and giving financially when I can to help his campaign. The rest is up to him.

  • IJB

    History shows that those campaigns that wait until the last minute to flood the airwaves often lose.

    Rubio’s campaign abandoning the airwaves, and the message delivery to Crist, all Summer-long, is a mistake.

    And the longer that goes on, the costlier that mistake will be…

  • GregInFla

    in that they would increase costs of people’s vacation travel expenses. We are common-sense people here. Crist announced today that he wants the legislature back in session to approve a Nov 2010 ballot option for a constitutional amendment to ban offshore drilling. These state amendments have been horrible here, forcing money to be spent when it does not exist (e.g. maximum class sizes in K-12 public schools, require high-speed rail a few years ago). It’s hard to argue against a public vote on a constitutional amendment (what? you don’t want the people to decide?) and Charlie’s use of this is so political and emotional. It just makes me sick.

    Me? I say drill, but drill cautiously and in shallower waters. Set up some berms/surf areas to prevent view from shore. I know people with lots of ideas there. Solar energy plants have trouble getting approved here in the Sunshine State.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    but for the automobile and oil.

  • Menlo

    From the article, it appears most undecided voters are Democrats and independents. That would make sense for those who have ruled out Rubio. Crist also still has a clear majority with a favorable view of him.

    Between that and Florida’s disproportionate share of liberal GOP voters, I think the only way for Rubio to win would be to increase support for the apparently not-well-known Democrat.

  • Adjoran

    Pre-primary polls of general election match-ups are usually contests of name recognition – even in Presidential campaigns. It just defies logic that Crist could within the space of – what? – three weeks? – a short time declare his undying allegiance to the GOP, and then withdraw to run as an Independent.

    A significant portion of Republican voters would never be reachable after the betrayal, and a nearly like segment of Democrats would be too suspicious of someone they’ve hated as a Republican for years already, while independents cannot help but notice the craven self-interest which cause Crist to switch. His support in the polls is coming from the uninvolved who pay little attention but know the name.

    There is no reason to assume undecided voters, especially independents, would break for Crist. As the established statewide figure in the race, it is he who is probably at his highest point now.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • freethinkerfl

    with the antics of both Rep and Dems. There is another choice in Alex Snitker the Libertarian candidate. In polls that include him he is polling ahead of the Dems.

    As Snitker gets his name out and people see what he stands for they will leave the other candidates. First Meeks and Crist and then from Rubio also.

    This race will be between Rubio and Snitker and leave out the two Dems.

  • RedBeard
  • concernedflorida

    but I would respectfully offer that we ALL know what happens in three ways races including libertarian/conservative independents – they split the conservative vote. Big NO NO, IMO. The stakes are just too high for us to not be smart about this.

    I appreciate the noble ideal of voters having choices in a free democratic society, that it some how strengthens our unique representative government.

    But the truth is that it hurts us, it allows Democrats to win elections, and it brings us to this very brink of socialism. I find myself with many Libertarian leanings, but I feel that Libertarians need to work within the Republican party to advance their agenda. This is the only way to include more of the tenants of Libertarianism into mainstream policy.

    Look at what the socialists did. Going all the way back to – was it Stalin that said it? That Americans would never accept communism, never accept socialism, but in the name of ‘liberalism ‘ we could be convinced to gradually accept the concepts of Marxism – subversively.

    I am paraphrasing here and I may have the wrong Soviet leader, but you get the point. Go look at the Democratic Socialist’s website and read some of their history and literature. They openly admit that starting with LBJ’s Great Society, they realized that to advance their agenda, they would align themselves with the Progressive wing of the Democrat party, recognizing that they shared the same desires – but that American’s would reject (rightly) ‘socialism’.

    They were brilliant – look how effective they have been. Advancing their socialist agenda all the way to the presidency of the United States, the leadership of both House and Senate. All subversive, all with propaganda and BRANDING – (as an example look at how happy shiny cuddly the whole ‘Green’ movement has become – it is a marketing tool that has effectively infiltrated society. Or the Barack Obama website, with it’s patriotic color scheme, inspiration photography, poetic rhetoric that cynically appeals to the emotions with no grounding in reality).

    They are wicked, with no grasp of economics or human nature or the concept of good and evil – but some of them are very cunning, ruthless and effective and advancing their agenda.

    The point is, let’s work within the structures that exist to affect the greatest change – I’m talking positive, conservative common sense change that will benefit Americans and that is line with the tradition of American Exceptionalism. Work to change / improve the Republican party from within.

  • johnm

    Charlie Crist is known as “Prime Time Charlie” in Florida www.wmmbam.com for his constant appearance in front of cameras whenever the opportunity presents itself. He shows up on cameras to provide news sound bites (free publicity) and then disappears.

    Polls will always show “Prime Time Charlie” as long as they poll mostly people who get their news from the evening news. Likewise, if they only poll talk radio listeners, Marco Rubio will have a commanding lead and “Prime Time Charlie” will be nowhere to be found.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    First, CC will need to critique the quality of Obama’s handling of the Gulf Oil Spill…and his vacationing…and this reply (perhaps based on the attitude that prompted last year’s embrace) would likely alienate whatever R’s remain in his camp.

    Second, CC will need to answer the caucus-query because BOTH of the other I’s declared AHEAD-OF-TIME [Sanders/Lieberman] their D-orientation…for an evasion during a debate will be starkly-defined…and this would seal the deal regarding the R’s (justifiably, reasonably).

    Third, MR will need to strategize if/when the opposition unifies…because it is implausible the D’s will want a 3x-race…and a consideration that should be weighed prophylactically is an ad-campaign that recalls how CC was touted as a McCain-Veep.

    [THIS serves two purposes. First, it makes it more difficult, perceptually, for D's to tolerate CC's shift from GOP-Darling to D-Fealty; to suggest this would be a flip-flop is an understatement. Second, it recalls the distaste among R's of CC's duplicity; to cement this schism should be thematic.]

    Fourth, as both candidates clarify their stances on the Illegals, a close-friend advised [somewhat satirically] that an effort be made to organize a large Cuban flotilla [to enhance the R-rolls, just as the D's are attempting to accomplish rather blatantly]. This friend also recalls that Jeb was elected, not too long ago…so the Florida voter may be expected to opt for the image of friendly competence.

    PLEASE, those who are in-the-know, CRITIQUE these observations (from north of the Mason-Dixon)!

  • pahokeepete

    Rubio is just not believable, to me regarding his shifting stances on illegal aliens and Amnesty. When news of the Az. law first hit the street Rubio’s immediate reflex action was to condemn. And, sadly, while admitting he had yet to actually Read The Law!

    Is this the temperament needed in the Senate? I once had great hope for him. Examine his close association with brother Jeb. The Jeb who admitted during the last Amnesty fight that hearing the utterance “illegal alien” made his wife cry. Poor dear. This is the mentor of Marco. I seriously doubt, given the Bush family position on Amnesty, brother Jeb would propel forth one who was not, in his heart, a true believer.

    When shooting from the hip that day Marco tipped his hand. He did scramble back to make his position clearer later. I still have a very hard time purging that amiable slug Martinez from my memory. He, when running prior to primary and in the general was rock solid against Amnesty and willing to get tough on illegals. Right up to election day. Brother George was this specimens mentor. Perhaps all of this is just a coincidence. I was raised on the adage: Once burned, Twice shy. The Bush cabal have had way more than their prescribed limit of burns with this suspicious Conservative.

    Yes, we have to vote for Rubio, I know. I remember when I had to vote for Martines, Dole, Daddy Bush, Ford et al. ’04 was my very last vote based upon misplaced faith in one who is not deserving. When Marco walks out in the daylight talking Joe Arpaio tough arm in arm with Tancredo, then I might reconsider. Open your eyes, take a look at who is backing Rubio. It reads like an amnesty who’s who list.

    For those who think this “issue” is toxic, take a look at what Rick Scott has done with it since he picked it up and ran with it.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    this response to my fourth point (which was phrased purposefully as somewhat-vague, albeit hopefully-bemusing) is problematic…and serves as a key homework-assignment for MR….

  • acat

    Let’s see here.

    First, Crist is endorsed by Martinez and the NRSC, i.e. the “Insiders” you’re claiming to loathe. Now, Orange Charlie jumping ship on the RNC may affect that but … I doubt it.

    Also, and I’m not in Florida so this is third-or-fourthhand .. there’s no love lost between the Bushies and Orange Charlie, so Jeb’s early support for Marco isn’t what you’re making it.

    Second, the primary is over, Marco is the guy. Yes, he may be weaker on immigration than I’d like, but the time to address that was during the primary where the choice was Marco or Orange Charlie. Somehow, I suspect Marco is the better end of that deal.

    Finally, the “I’m going to stay home” jazz you’ve got near the end? Because that’s what your “I don’t like these guys I was forced to vote for in the general” whine boils down to – that’s exactly why we’ve got President Obama.

    Yeah, McCain sucked. Were you out working for Hunter or trying to light a fire under Fred!? If not, then it’s your laziness in the primary that gave us such a lousy candidate. Dole – same thing. If you weren’t busting your {ahem} for Dole (who was the best of a bad pack .. Clinton wasn’t vulnerable) or worse, if you were a Perot supporter, then you’ve nobody else to blame.

    Mew

  • acat
  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    thanx for input