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Barbara Boxer still leading, still vulnerable

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 5th, 2010 at 12:00 PM  | 

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Boxer Fiorina

From Unlikely Voter: Carly Fiorina’s support continues in a band of 38-43 in the new Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race, while Barbara Boxer fails to reach 50.

Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.

In this August release, Fiorina trails boxer 40-45 (MoE 4.5). It’s a small lead, but repeating a small lead in many polls adds extra credibility to it. But if Boxer were to carry this 53/47 D+6 two party split to November, it would be a staggering drop from the 60/40 D+20 two party split drubbing she dealt to Bill Jones last time out.

Boxer appears to be a polarizing figure in the state. Her net favorability runs at +1, but the scale is heavily weighted with peaks at the ends, where 26% find her very favorable, and 32% find her very unfavorable. However Fiorina is at +4, and her ratings tend more toward the middle, with a peak at 35% finding her somewhat favorable.

Californians are basically evenly split on whether Boxer is an extremist, with those finding her a mainstream candidate barely coming ahead at 42-41 over those finding her extreme. Fiorina though has a clear lead in the mainstream category, with mainstream coming ahead 40-32.

Again, I think it’s clear that Boxer leads, but she’s just showing all the classic signs of an incumbent being vulnerable, something that’s unprecedented since Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer were first swept into office together in 1992.

That’s why we’re seeing Planned Parenthood announce plans to spend a million dollars to help her, and we’ve seen Barack Obama announce two trips out to California to raise money for her. All the signs say she needs shored up or this race could get away from her.

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  • rdelbov

    (too cheap) for all the crosstabs on this poll. My opinion is that it still runs a bit on the liberal side. RAS has upped his sample to 750 likely voters–that’s a plus.

    Here’s a clue to me that this sample still runs too liberal. 56% approval for Obama. Yes California is liberal but if we have seen Obama in the low 40′s on approval nationwide–no way he is at 56% in CA. Several recent polls have found Obama at 50% or lower in CA–was it Gallup or someone had Obama at 41%. This sample of voters is just too liberal.

    Okay that’s what MOE is all about. I like Rasmussen but I do slide this poll to the right by several percent or more.

  • IJB

    Your projected 53/47 margin only assumes an R+7.

    If you go with R+10, you get to… a 50/50 split!

    Yep, I think this one is going down to the wire!…

    (The single most important number to watch in this election is Obama’s Favorabililty ratings in CA – if they stay above 50%, Boxer is in good shape to hold on; but if Obama falls below 50%, and especially if gets down to 45-47% Favorability in CA, then I think Boxer is toast…)

  • rdelbov

    this race will be close. debates could be very important especially if Carly F. calls her Barbara and not Senator Boxer mam.

    I still think Passion and people will win for the GOP in CA. There is a ferver among the conservatives/republicans to ditch Boxer plus there is a substantial teaparty effort in that state. Its early-lot of work to be done-but this could happen

  • usedtobelib

    All I can gather is that Fiorina is holding back until September because up here I have seen NO ads either attacking Boxer or putting forth Fiorina’s positions.

    Now, I am not saying that she hasn’t run ads, just that I’ve not see them.
    The Fiorina ads were all over the place as were the Whitman ads during the primary.

    The average Californian cannot tell you the name of Carly Fiorina. That might be good–perhaps the voter will just vote for the non-incumbent.

    In my estimation, the Whitman ad campaign after the primary has been weak–poorly done anti-Brown ads are airing. I’ve not seen positive pro-Whitman ads airing yet. I am sure it’s part of a strategy (certainly it’s not a lack of money). However, I’m no expert.

    All I know it this–one friend of mine, a retired union worker who probably has never voted for a dem in his life, has parroted the Brown line that Whitman is trying to buy the election. I have no chance of winning him over–he is simply emotionally tied to his political party the way he is tied to his favorite football team. His wife, however, is definitely wanting to vote against Brown and all the Dems in general. She voted for , even though she had doubts about him because she was aghast at McCain’s choice of Palin after she listened to Palin in interviews.

    I only hope Whitman and Fiorina her a positive reason to do so. Attacks only will not work. Whiie those who follow politics know that Barbara Boxer is considered dumb and lazy by even the Elites, the average Californian knows no such thing. It is hard for most people to understand that politics in a state this large in both population and in geography is very removed from the average person.

  • usedtobelib

    Sorry if that line about my friend made no sense–I stated he has probably never voted for a dem–I meant that he had never voted for a republican.

  • clintonformccain

    Coakley didn’t look even remotely vulnerable in Massachusetts polling until just two weeks before the election in January. A crazy dynamic swept the state when the prospect of doing the unthinkable became real.

    These are emotional, angry, “throw the bums out” votes in deep blue states. I don’t think we’ll know if that kind of passion explodes into flames on tinderbox political hillsides until we get closer to the elections.

  • SIConservative

    And the errors in your analysis don’t end there. CA is a far cry from MA. In MA, we won because the Democrats nominated possibly the worst major party Senate candidate since Alan Keyes, were on the unpopular side of a highly polarizing health care debate that couldn’t have been more timely, and failed to take the race seriously. Take out any of those three factors and we lose that race.

    In California, on the other hand, none of those factors exist and Boxer is still vulnerable. Granted, CA isn’t nearly as far left as MA, but this one really shoudn’t be as consistently close as it is. The “Throw the bums out” will deliver enough votes to make races like the one in California close, but close only counts in horseshoes and Washington. Even in this environment, California votes Democrat by default. If Fiorina is to seal the deal, she has to sell herself as a viable alternative. She may yet do it, but she clearly hasn’t done it yet.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    A prominent Democrat called her Marsha, I think that’s the reference here.

    And no, CA isn’t an MA. CA has parts of the state that are like MA, but we also have parts that are like AZ, ID, and NV.