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PPP on the Colorado Primaries

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 10th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

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From Unlikely Voter: Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.

John Hickenlooper, Democrat for Governor, is safe, but he’s the only one.

The Republican race for Governor is of course a mess since Scott McInnis imploded. McInnis, once a clear favorite, now only leads Dan Maes in the poll 41-40 (MoE 3.5), for a good old 55-45 near-coinflip situation.

For Senate, the Republicans are also close, per PPP, with Ken Buck behind Jane Norton 45-43, a reversal of earlier polling I’ve covered. But still, that narrow margin makes it 61-39 and leaves plenty of room for either candidate to win.

Democrats still have a competitive Senate race, and PPP’s outcome is also a reversal of earlier polling seen in this space, as Michael Bennet retakes a lead, 49-43, over Andrew Romanoff (MoE 4.6), for a clearer 74% chance Bennet leads.

This is a rare situtation. SurveyUSA had all three races going the other way. Should make the results interesting to watch tonight.

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  • rdelbov

    gleanings from the PPP crosstabs.

    1. Bennett is less popular with hispanics then Romanoff–perhaps they feel congressman Salazar was shafted in the senate appointment process.

    2. The AA voters are strong for Bennett-Romanoff running to his left but perhaps the Obama endorsement is huge there?

    3. Younger voters are strong for Bennett and that’s a bit of a surprise. I would think the rebel Romanoff would get those voters.

    I surprised not to see a geographic breakdown of the primary voters. In the GOP primary I think that will be important. Probably in the democratic primary too. I see we will see rural voters go big for Bennett-just a guess. Plus I think Buck wins most of the rural areas–again just a guess. This only 20% or so in CO but could be decisive.

  • sacody

    Neil, who would you rather have for a general election opponent tonight? Romanoff or Bennet? I can see arguments either way? I would suspect that Bennet would be the easiest of the two to beat this fall due to incumbency, but I am really having difficultly sizing the polling up.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Both Norton and Buck so far match up better against Romanoff than against Bennet.

    Beyond that, I don’t know. :)

  • sacody

    There are a good number of interesting races to watch tonight. This is definitely one of them.

  • naraht

    If Tancredo had actually gotten into the Republican Primary from the beginning, he might have had a real chance. As it is, I think that Tancredo and the winner of the Republican Primary are basically pulling for the same votes and I don’t think that Hickenlooper has to change his election strategy that much.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Once McInnis imploded, Tancredo would have been a lock for the nomination.

    Now every good GOPer is going to be looking to destroy the creep. Some of us have longed for this chance, too… the freaking Buchananite.

  • betsyred

    Tonight’s Senate race outcome will be the signal of whether or not Colorado has had enough of Blue State progressive politics and is ready to return to sensible, conservative Old West values. A Norton win will put Colorado at risk against either Democrat and even if she wins in Nov., her record and her associations in Washington aren’t encouraging that she’ll end up with a nice 90+% conservative voting record. Local TV stations at this late hour continue to tout Norton’s endorsement from John McCain and never mention Buck’s strong conservative endorsement from Jim DeMint. We know the media in CO loves their Blue State status, so perhaps they’ve worked their magic once again…………

  • sarg01

    The guy is so far to the left, a poster on Daily Kos once called him “almost like the second coming of Hitler” instead of “the second coming of Hitler”.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    A Norton win doesn’t make a Colorado a blue state. Also, Norton fares better against Bennet than Buck, while Buck looks better against Romanoff.

    What we need in Washington in November is REPUBLICANS, and Norton is certainly one of those.

  • takemccain2

    Still gathering information but if this is true then it is an exciting moment for those of us who felt that WE THE PEOPLE should select our candidates and not the good-ole-boys club of the RNC and NRSC.
    Let me state that I have nothing personal against Jane Norton as I’m sure she is a nice lady but when John McCain and John Cornyn tried to push the field clear for her and dry-up money for the other competitors, we knew then that the NRSC had not learned it’s lesson. They wanted to come to CO and hand pick another rubber stamp for their continued policies but what they got was a full-blown conservative rebellion in the campaign of Ken Buck. I don’t know everything that Ken will do as a Senator but I do know this much – he won’t SELL OUT and ‘do what he’s told’ by the likes of McConnell, McCain and other GOP fat cats.
    I’m so jazzed right now I can hear music. Its the music of victory tonight and come November!

  • takemccain2

    another John McCain backed candidate, Lang Sias, is getting soundly beat by his primary opponent, Ryan Frazier.
    Guess McCain’s clout doesn’t amount to much. That makes me feel all cheery inside.
    IN YOUR FACE, JOHN MCCAIN!!!