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Final look at Florida

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 23rd, 2010 at 01:00 PM  | 

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Florida Beach

Despite a rash of independents and party switches in Florida, tomorrow there are still two meaningful primaries at the top of the ticket. For the Democrats, tomorrow they choose between Bill Clinton-backed Kendrick Meek, and wealthy challenger Jeff Greene for a Senate candidate. Republicans have to decide on a candidate for Governor between former Impeachment star Bill McCollum and wealthy challenger Rick Scott.

With one day to go, let’s check where the polls say both races are headed.

Except for Rasmussen Reports, who rarely dips into the primary waters, we’ve got a good mix of pollsters hitting Florida at the end, all focusing on likely voters. PPP’s poll ended on the 22nd, Mason Dixon’s on the 19th, and Quinnipiac’s on the 16th. That’s as far back as I’ll go for last minute polling.

For the Democrats, the race seems to have settled down. Greene made a real challenge, but Democrats seem to have consolidated around Meek, as Meek leads by 7, 12, and 24 in the last three polls. I don’t think his lead is growing exponentially, but that trend is hard to ignore.

We get no such clear trend on the Republican side [link fixed], though. This race has been hit by late-breaking news of a lawsuit against Scott, and McCollum has milked the story. As a result, he got a serious jump, this month taking his first polling lead since May.

But it appears Scott isn’t finished yet, as those last three polls are mixed: McCollum +9, McCollum +9, and finally PPP shows up with Scott +7. As erratic as primary polling has been this year, I’m not prepared to draw conclusions from this, except that the Republican side is close. So Republicans had best get out and vote in Florida tomorrow, because one vote just might matter.

From Unlikely Voter.

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  • http://www.2010blog.net jsanzone

    after his primary victory could throw the Senate race all out of whack. Does Rubio stand to gain? Probably. But he absolutely cannot take any aspect of this race for granted. It starts tomorrow.

  • finaljeopardy

    “Please stay home during this primary election, too. My campaign thinks I’ve got a better chance at winning, if a black candidate isn’t pulling votes to the Democratic party and away from my Independent bid against Marco Rubio. Your Democratic party thinks Kendrick Meek will lose. They’ve been saying it anonymously to the press, and President Obama has been conspicuously absent except for a DNC fundraiser where the black Democrat gets to speak. Jeff Greene should be the nominee, because he will lose, too, but he will do so with his own money. All I care about is winning, so go Jeff Greene. Thank you, and God bless America.”

  • Zaber

    I’m currently in the Tampa area on business, and I tuned into a few hours of news on the Fox affiliate this morning.. easily 20 minutes of every hour filled with attack ads, especially between Scott and McCollum. I dont recall seeing any NON political ads all morning.

    I love what politics has become. *sigh*

  • RedBeard

    Sickening, really, to have to vote against someone in the R governor’s primary, and to have to look forward to doing the same thing in November.

    Grit teeth, hold nose, vote to keep the Dem out of the governor’s mansion.

    But when do I get to vote FOR people?

    Well, at least I have Marco.

  • mboyle1988

    I voted early for Rick Scott because I am living out of state for a summer internship. Then I found out all the stuff about his company. It’s pretty sick.

    McCollum is actually a good conservative. He’s just a bad public speaker and campaigner. I’m not sure either of them can beat Alex Sink, which, as a statement, I would have found silly just a month ago.

  • chihank

    Here in Chicago, I am getting Bill McCollum ads.

    Bill McCollum ran ads on CNN Headline news. Also McCollum are airing on the radio shows of Hugh Hewitt and Michael Medhev. I think the McCollum forgot to only pay for ads affecting the local FL market. The McCollum campiagn is overpaying for ads with money that could be used against Alexa Sink.

  • bannor

    things like that is why i don’t like early voting.

  • gjohnson

    You have apparently been out of town because you are not aware of the fact that McCollum has everything to do with this lawsuit. You need to stay on top of things and vote the right person in and that is Scott. McCollum is just as bad as having a democrat. He’ll be just like Scott Brown in MA. Mark my words. It’s better than a guarantee.

  • ktsub

    The campaign is not “overpaying for ads”, the “local” airtime is sold out, so many times in certain markets, the campaign purchases open “national” airtime to get the message out.

    Actually its smart…regarding Alex Sink, her closet has not been exposed yet. For all the negative, late primary in Florida, its a tight race, that is how the game rolls in Florida.

  • cactusjack

    safely ensconced behind state troopers in a government building with metal detectors and circling black government Suburbans. No joke. As is public knowledge from his committee assignments while serving in the House, he has extremely…extremely….high government security clearances & is kind of like an ex-President walking around in that respect.

  • EMT907

    I don’t follow local politics that much. What did you mean by “former Impeachment star Bill McCollum”?

    I also voted absentee, even though I haven’t gone anywhere. It’s just more convenient. I knew about Scott and Columbia/HCA, but somehow I just can’t get all that upset over it. The feds got who they could/wanted, so I’m not worried about it.

    What’s more, Scott has been talking about issues since day one. As far as I’ve seen, McCollum has only attacked Scott. Haven’t seen anything from him on issues until today.

  • yuletide

    Rubio is doing a happy dance.since Meek is going to win. Meek will get between 15% to 25% of the vote. I just don’t see African-Americans voting for a white guy over an African-American. Every vote for Meek is a vote taken from Crist. Also because Meek win, the DNC can’t support Crist. It will be interesting to see if Meek goes after Crist. Rubio should win easily if he appears to be a Jeb Bush clone.

  • gfwarhol

    Republican candidate for Governor is worth a darn in my book, and couldn’t bring myself to vote for either. I voted for unknown, and unfunded McCallister!

    In the general, I will hold my nose and vote. I am getting sick of having to do that!

  • ywhyvon1

    I never vote early because there is too much that can happen a week or so before election day.