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Dino Rossi’s lead confirmed

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 2nd, 2010 at 03:00 PM  | 

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Murray Rossi

When the first major post-primary poll came out for the Washington Senate race, some questioned whether it was skewed toward Republican Dino Rossi over Democrat Patty Murray, or if it was simply an outlier.

But now we have confirmation that Rossi does appear to have a lead at this point, though perhaps not as large as SurveyUSA showed.

Not that Rossi and Washington Republicans are going to be disappointed with a 50-47 lead (MoE 4). Even if Murray shows a 36% chance of being ahead in this poll, as I calculate, a 64% chance to unseat the incumbent is something Dino Rossi should be pleased with at this point in time.

Seats like this I believe are the kind that turn a modestly good year for Republicans into a rout. Public Policy Polling’s Twitter feed suggested that this year could turn so bad for Democrats that Washington, Wisconsin, and California become the battleground. If that’s the case then a Republican Senate majority might not be probable yet, but it will at least be possible.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB

    …The odds of a GOP Senate start looking real, real good.

    The GOP picked up 12 seats in 1980 (and nearly that many over a year’s period in ’93-’94), so it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

    Meanwhile, I hope a Rossi win can pull WA-02 across the finish line for us as well… :)
    (Before you ask, I already think that WA-03 is a likely GOP pick-up… ;) )

  • Achance

    ‘Cause we’d sure like to see Murray gone – and Gregoire. We had Rossi here in Juneau a few years back as our Lincoln Day Dinner speaker; he’s good! I and some members of my staff prevailed on him to join us for a guided, hosted tour of some of Juneau’s “tonier” watering holes and a good time was had by all.

  • proudgop

    Did any of you California posters watch the debate last night? How did it go?

    I agree I think Koster can win in WA 2

  • rdelbov

    is a great candidate and a good guy.

    RAS has him up among indies–not sure by how much that is helping to drive his lead in this poll.

    I seem to recall that GOP primary ballots this year was 720K while democat primary ballots was 706K. This in a state that was +10%D per the CNN exits.

  • irishfreedomfighter

    Into the mix. McMahon is running a great campaign (I live in CT btw, though I spend just about as much time in Rhode Island), and extremely wealthy, willing to spend 50 million+ of her own money. Blumenthal, on the other hand, has been running a pathetic campaign, and was torn apart by a little known Democrat for Mystic in the only debate he agreed to do during the primary. Blumenthal has never had a competitive race before, and obviously does not know how to campaign.

    McMahon also keeps creeping closer to Blumenthal in the polls, and whereas I have seen not a single sign for Blumenthal anywhere in CT, I have seen hundreds for McMahon- and I live in the area where she lost to Rob Simmons in the primary.

    This is slightly off topic, but Kennedy’s district in Rhode Island is also very vulnerable. Loughlin (Republican candidate there) was actually beating Kennedy in the polls before Kennedy decided to retire. New England’s not quite as blue as we seem to be. Bush’s unpopularity really made the Democrats here bigger than they are, and I think that this is the year where they come back down to earth, and the GOP picks up a seat or two in MA, both in NH, 1-3 in CT, one in RI, and if November is a complete wave, even one from Maine.

  • bk

    the “extra” votes that will mysteriously come from King County in the middle of the night.

  • romeg

    By suggesting that he get a new photo to replace the one that appears at the top of this page. In this photo he looks like “Smiling Bob” of Enzyte commercial fame.

    That cannot be helpful.

  • clintonformccain

    C-SPAN has the Boxer/Fiorini debate. You can go watch the archive there:

    www.cspan.org

    Fiorini cleaned her clock. Boxer is like a characature of an ancient relic lefty.

  • qixlqatl
  • IJB

    Fiorina’s closing, while not delivered with the total alacrity, was very, very solid, using examples from people she’d met on the trail, and really got to the heart of the matter of what’s wrong with the economy, the state, and teh country.

    Boxer’s closing was the same angry diatribe that she’s been delivering for 20 years. *NO* new solutions to anything – just more of the same.

    And Boxer looked a million years old (see: Jerry Brown).

    If people are paying attention, it should be a no-brainer that Boxer’s been there too long, and has got to go.

    The question is, how many CA residents have been around 20 years, and so know how old Boxer’s act has gotten?!…

    (Sorry for the threadjack!… :/ )

  • reaganauh2o

    great coast to coast sweep of Ronald Reagan, he was the most senior member of the senate at the time and had been serving there since 1944, and before that in the house since 1937.

    He had no idea he could actually be dethroned in an election and I vividly remember him with tears streaming down his face. Tom Foley was speaker of the house when he got ousted in 1994. And when Linda Smith won in the 3rd district in 1994 as a write-in, Jolene Unsoeld was scowling and snapping like a rabid reptile during her concession.

    This year is shaping up to be another shocker for the dems in the Evergreen State. I’m gonna have a huge bowl of popcorn and some really good scotch cuz there’s nothing more entertaining to watch than when dems lose.

  • Achance

    to keep Gregoire and AFSCME from stealing another election from him. You can bet that AFSCME has lists with tens of thousands of ACORN and Motor Voter registered name that either don’t exist or have moved out of the district or state and can just ride around in a van with a crew of “voters” and vote those lists. If you have lists like those, you can also vote absentee to your heart’s content as well. Rossi needs to challenge EVERY absentee to make sure the signature matches the original registration signature and that the person allegedly voting still lives at the voting address, in fact still lives at all – or ever did.

    If they happened at all, and there’s still no evidence they actually did, this is what the phone calls that the Miller Campaign got their panties in a wad about would have been for; if Joe Absentee says his address is 123 Birch Lane, you get a phone number for Joe Absentee at 123 Birch Ln. and call to see if there really is a Joe Absentee there. You’re not looking to find out who Joe voted for; an election observer cannot normally ever see an actual cast ballot associated with a voter name. What you want to do is make sure there IS a Joe Absentee.

  • tomato

    if she can walk off the stage on her own two feet after conceding. In middle America, her name is recognized among us politically-curious. I always considered her California’s third Senator. At least brethren to her Californian liberal elite. I can’t image she can deal with a defeat credited to Obama’s (lack of) popularity. Her votes on ObamaCare and socialist agenda just can’t bring her down by her own subjects (I mean PEOPLE).

    What’s funny, since she’s on the left coast, Murray may be one of the last losers making a concession speech on national television after a wave made their sorrows before her. If and when that moment comes, I want to respectfully ask a polite question: “Do you hear us now?”

  • Martin Knight

    I’m pretty certain you remember what happened in 2004? You were there, weren’t you? What about 2008 where nice moderate bipartisan Norm Coleman sat by being nice, moderate and bipartisan as his Election Day victory was being blatantly stolen from him in MN until it was too late?

    So my advice is that you somehow get it to Sam Reed (who is by all accounts a great SoS) that no county should report its totals until every county has finished tabulating its votes. An idea is that the chief county elections officers would be given an ID and password to a secure site where they would enter their county’s results on election night with witnesses on hand who would all afterward be sequestered until the results are revealed.

    The results would not be revealed until every single county has reported. It may not stop the usual suspects in King County, but not knowing just how many votes they need to manufacture is certain to put a crimp in their style.

  • america1st

    If the Maine voters don’t send chellie pingree to the showers in this economy, there is no hope for them; but there are a lot of squatters from away who’ve relocated there, bringing their same old MA-NY-NJ drooling idiot love of big government w/ them. Same is true of VT and to a lesser degree NH. Unfortunately we (NH) will likely still be burdened with Mr. Tax & Spend lynch in the Governor’s Office, but I look for a clean sweep against the dims in the two House contests and RINO Gregg’s seat.

  • johnthebaptistmoore

    I believe that Dino Rossi would be even higher in poll numbers and in support by Washington state voters, if Clint Didier would, just, fully endorse Rossi, instead of creating problems, after Clint lost the primary race. Get on board the Rossi train, Clint, if you haven’t already done so.

  • JoeG

    I’ve always watched the returns from home until this year. I think this time I’m going to one of the election night parties.

    I already know to put in for a vacation day the following day because I hope to party all night long.

  • JoeG

    If some of the Eastern counties won’t report until after King County certifies then they won’t know how many boxes they have to find.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The polls make it clear that conservatives and Republicans don’t really care what he has to say at this point.

  • irishfreedomfighter

    moving to New England. Hippies from the Bay Area, New Yorkers, and Canadians. It’s happened in CT as well. Lynch is a sure bet to stay governor? Last time I was in NH it seemed as though he was only up by small margins, but I wouldn’t know for certain. I’d love for New England to run red again, and this might just be the cycle to do it. No more Bush, the GOP has all the momentum, and even people that alwyas vote for Democrats here are considering either staying home or voting Republican. When Newport and Jamestown Rhode Island’s district would rather vote for a Republican than a KENNEDY, something big is happening.

    Is Michaud in any danger at all? I know that the Northern Maine district barely leans Dem, but I haven’t heard anything about him being in any sort of race.