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Robin Carnahan is in real trouble

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 9th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

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blunt carnahan

It’s already bad enough for Democrat Robin Carnahan that she hasn’t led a poll this year, but since primaries Republican Roy Blunt’s lead has been growing. In the likely voter polls he now leads by 6, 7, and now 10 in the latest Rasmussen.

Yes this is Blunt’s second double-digit lead: 53-43 (MoE 4). The inclusion of leaners by Rasmussen didn’t even seem to change the race: the last poll without them had the lead at 13.

I show an 11% chance that Carnahan leads according to this one new poll alone, but when no poll has shown her leading since Christmas, it’s hard to say she has much of a chance anymore. And with the major national organizations of Democrats already having spent over a million in the state, and now doing “triage” to leave races for dead, I can’t imagine Carnahan will get the help she badly needs right now.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • ladyimpactohio
  • ladyimpactohio
  • chipbennett

    Her campaign must be spending a crap-load of money on ads. I hardly watch any broadcast TV, but when I do, it seems every other ad is a Blunt attack ad.

    (Granted: they must know she’s destined to lose. I’ve yet to see a single “I’m Robin Carnahan, and this is what I’m going to do” ad. Every single ad is “Roy Blunt is the very worst of Washington”, “Roy Blunt is the most corrupt politician in Washington” etc. ad nauseum.)

    I hope the Democrats keep blowing money on these ads. It prevents that money from going toward races that are actually competitive.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • tomato

    It’s doesn’t just drop down and out and disappear. It’s not in the physics. It spins in a uniform, predictable direction before you hear the last gasp of air. Its a slow, agonizing goodbye. But the end result is inevitable. Such as Carnahan’s campaign. To see just how bad it is going, the St. Louis news posted an article about how her successes in gun control in the past is hurting her today. In fact, the very laws she opposed came into fruition without her later and she has done a muted flip-flop for gun rights but prefer not to talk about it.

    When I first saw the headlines, I thought it was a pity piece by a left-leaning news organization from a region of Missouri very sympathetic to her campaign. “Consider Carnahan … she wants to take away guns!” In fact, the article mentions how it has hurts her and rubs against the grain of Missouri culture and her campaign.

    The news site is balancing each candidate with articles about past associations they may have regretted.

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_845bb76e-e4db-50da-a13f-1458e1006694.html

  • rdelbov

    thats the rumour that DSCC has committed 4 million to this race. I don’t buy that number myself. I get a little cynical when campaign spending plans end up in the MSM

    I love the trend in likely voter polls and I this story that came out.

    http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politicsinvesting/2039-gop-turnout-exceeding-democrats-for-first-time-since-1930

    For the 1st time in 80 years GOP turnout exceeds democrat primary turnout. I can hardly list the 20 states that have had record GOP mid term primary turnouts. I could if I had to. Okay Maine-SC-GA-FL-AL-TN-KY-IN-MI-MO-AR-KS-OK-TX-NM-AZ-UT-CO-WY-AK–whew

    That’s why I see the likely voter model for states as being so bad now for the democrats. The GOP is fired up–remember the Concord site now. Everyone person Paul Revere. Not to late to write checks.

  • Coop

    Two polls in the past week or so from WV showing Manchin leading by 6 and by 5 points.

    http://www.raeseforsenate.org/

  • IJB

    It looks, right now anyway, that MO SEN and OH SEN are relatively solid, and that FL SEN is firming up.

    I definitely think resources should now be shifted to WV, and PA (to lock in our slighter lead there…).

  • mboyle1988

    Isn’t close. Toomey has leads of 8-10 points. Also Reese in WV doesn’t seem to need our money because he is self funding. Same with McMahon in ct, who I suspect will be tied when the next Rasmussen poll is released. We need to be pouring gobs of money into Nevada to support Sharron. Fiorina, Buck, Rossi, Miller and Johnson also need resources. But I agree that mo, oh, pa and fl look good. I just think we need to turn the six toss up races into leans GOP before we worry about wv and ct, both of which have self funding candidates anyway.

  • creditman

    For the last several weeks I’ve been receiving Carnahan attack BS in the mail.

    The latest ad playing on radio here has a cow baying in the background. She hasn’t been close to a farm in years! The local radio station has been ridiculing it all day.

    Blunt has been the president of a local university and has a solid following in Southwest Missouri. Nothing said from the Caranahan campaign will make any difference. I hope the Democrats spend a lot more money on her losing campaign.

    BTW, we will be sending Washington DC, a new conservative republican congressman too.

  • ktsub

    Raese still needs cash help in West Virginia. He is able to self-fund partially, but he is no Meg Whitman!

    West Virginia is ripe to be won, he has got the tapes on Manchin…just waiting on the right time unload.

  • renny

    after bad. It leaves less to devote elsewhere.

  • E Pluribus Unum

    Not the tasty kind, lightly toasted with butter, suitable for jam.

    Nah. Burnt. Charred. Stinking up the house toast.

  • epaulzy

    Despite the good news from various polls I say the truth will come out in many of these races by the end of this month or the start of next month. Any democrat who is shown to be down by 6 points or more will be left high and dry. The democrats will try to salvage any place they can by focusing their attention on those races they see as still winnable. I suspect Carnahan’s national funding will dry up within about 20 days. Now if the fine folks of Missouri could just get rid of the other Carnahan too.

  • proudgop

    hopefully we can knock off her brother and Ike too

    Raese can self fundraise so can McMahon, Carly, and Johnson
    The NRSC needs to put money in CO, NV, WA, IL

  • onemovoter

    that is negative on Blunt but it’s from the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees. AFSCME.org They are also doing radio ads. I would like to know if it is legal to photoshop a politicians head onto a standin actors body that gives a false impression?

    We did have a state fair not too long ago and a straw poll of an upcoming state election is always held. This time it was Blunt Vs. Carnahan. Almost 6700 people voted. Blunt had 66% to Carnahan’s 34%. This poll has never come out wrong for the state’s fall election results. Carnahan is toast here, no worries for Blunt.

  • IJB

    …Isn’t for advertising – it’s for *turnout*.

    That’s where the NRSC and third-party orgs can really help candidates like Raese.