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Checking in on Washington

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 16th, 2010 at 08:00 PM  | 

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Murray Rossi

I’m sensing great interest in recent Washington polling. The Elway Poll I’m going to ignore for now, as I’ve picked it apart in the past, and Real Clear Politics had a note on it as well, so I’ll look more closely at the new Rasmussen Reports poll, which shows Democrat Patty Murray retaking the lead from Republican Dino Rossi.

The change in the Washington polling is striking because Rossi had taken some slim leads, but now Murray has inched back ahead 51-46 (MoE 4), which is still close, but not as close as it had been, and obviously the other direction.

What happened? Rasmussen has included leaners for the first time. It’s clear that this is another race where one candidate has a good clump of weak support, and in this case that weak support lies with Patty Murray.

So I can’t conclude the race has really shifted since those tiny leads Rossi registered. This is still a close race (though per this poll I have it 75/25 in favor of Murray), and there isn’t some huge tide of support that Murray is suddenly tapping into.

This is just the first poll that’s registering the tepid swing vote she’s still barely holding onto at this point.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://itsaboutfreedom.proboards.com IronDioPriest

    …is telling, and thus, daunting. It shows just how far down the path to losing our constitution and country we really are. So many elected Democrats like Murray are vapid ideologues who can be counted on at every turn to rob us of our liberties, yet they enjoy the support of roughly 50% of the American people all across this land.

    In my world, this shouldn’t and wouldn’t be. But it is. Even if we beat back the zombies this go-’round, the task before us is monumental, and will span generations if there is to be any hope.

  • bobbymike

    elected and re-elected I just don’t get it. Sorry to be sexist but how does any Democrat running on a tax and spend and take our freedom agenda get the vote of a single male over the age of say 30 (that describes me so I post what I know best)

    They all remind me of my first wife, even the male Democrats : )

  • Coop

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41917.html

    “Roll Call, the D.C. political newspaper, reports that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) last week added $2 million to the $515,000 in TV advertising it had reserved in the state.”

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012860721_partiessendcashtomurrayrossirace.html
    —
    Sometimes people get too focused on polls, and don’t look at other factors. Money talks. The Dems are very scared about losing Murray (and the House seats in WA-02 and WA-03). The NRSC is not dropping $2.5 million in the state because it thinks Murray is pulling away. Just two weeks ago Rasmussen moved this race from Leans Dem to Toss-up.

  • Darin_H

    This is why we need to build momentum going into Nov. Demoralizing enough Democrat leaners who won’t bother to turn out and we can pick up a few races that we might otherwise lose.

  • RedBeard

    …and abdication by far too many parents.

    Where have all the hippies gone? Gone to faculties of colleges, universities, high schools, grade schools, even kindergartens. We have allowed a generation, two generations perhaps, to be woefully under-educated and maliciously mis-educated. Kids can get a BA today and still have a painful lack of knowledge and a thorough misunderstanding of history, government, basic economics, and constitutional law. This is no accident; it’s the result of a plan.

    We can never fully regain our republic until this education gap is corrected. As Thomas Jefferson said, “Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day.”

  • Green_Lantern

    What kind of men are these people that would vote for her? What kind of hetero man? I just don’t understand it. There will never be a time when anybody could make me understand the mindset of how a grown a$$ hetero man could vote for some of these Democrats. It’s maddening.

  • proudgop

    Rossi is being outspent significantly. If you look at internals Murray has a fav of 53% while Rossi has 50%.

    Rossi has only had positive ads at this point. He really needs to start hitting her hard. Between WI, CA, and WA I’d rathe them in that order for us to gain.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    I still contend that there really isn’t anything that the Dems can do now to change the narrative. People like Murray can work the edges and move a few percentage through turnout and inertia.

    But the GOP still has a chance to move the numbers across all of the races if they roll out “Contract with America II” and it catches fire like it did in 1994. Of course there is a good chance people will be skeptical, so everything relies on how it is sold. But if done right, you could see a 5 point swing in every race as the soft support moves to the agenda rather than the candidate.

  • http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

    after which we will go help our state legislator candidates’ and our congressional candidate’s campaigns and do whatever they want us to do (walk precincts, make phone calls, stuff envelopes, etc., to help GOTV:

    I analyzed our precinct’s walking sheets and we’ve got 122 Republicans who did not vote in the 2008 general election and 105 independents/party not declared who did not vote. (out of approximately 1,100 non-Democrat registered voters). We’ve got 8 precinct committeeman slots for our precinct and are one of those rare precincts that have all of the allotted slots filled. In Arizona, there’s one PC for every 125 registered Republicans in a precinct.

    I have already contacted four of the other seven PCs and we will divide up the precinct among us and then make sure between now and the first week of October (when the mail in ballots are mailed out) that we contact, either at the door or by phone, every one of the “2008 non-voters”, starting with the Republicans. With the independents, we’ll have to do a “voter issues survey” and ask them hot button “survey questions.” If they give favorable answers (for example, “Do you want to see Obamacare repealed?” Do you favor government bailouts for Wall Street and banks? Do you believe the southern border should be secured (we’re in Arizona)? Do you believe the $787 Billion Stimulus worked and created jobs?), then we’ll encourage them to go vote for the Republicans. If they don’t give favorable answers, we’ll politely thank them and move on.

    And then, using Procinct software, we’ll update our precinct info.

    By dividing this up among us, it should only take a few hours to hit every one of these “2008 non-voters.”

    Yes, we must have a top-down message. But we also need good, old-fashioned, door-to-door and phone call contacts to those potential voters who ought to, or might, vote for our candidates. There’s no substitute for a personal, face-to-face plea to an individual voter that they get to the polls and actually vote. Because they might ignore the electronic media messages.

    Please help GOTV!

    For Liberty,
    ColdWarrior, PC (that?s ?precinct committeeman,? not ?political child!?)
    Conservatives, UNITE! CHANGE the Republican Party and save the world by UNITING INSIDE the Party as precinct committeemen. NOW! (46 days until Nov. 2 — what are YOU DOING to help get out the vote in your precinct?)

  • Adjoran

    and Selah.

  • Adjoran

    I understand why some people will vote for Democrats. Those looking for federal handouts obviously, and the presumption is also that a large percentage of federal employees will vote Democratic since Republicans tend to seek actual work in the private sector.

    Unions, naturally, as well as certain corporations (ex- GE, ADM, Conagra) who share the need for federal coercion to force the market to come to them – although the labor rank and file and the companies’ employees are not necessarily so influenced.

    Then you have the Ivy Leaguers and also the great masses of pseudo-intellectual pretenders to aristocracy (ex – John Kerry types, university professors) who are enchanted by the thought of socialism and thrilled at the chance to flaunt traditional standards, values, and mores.

    Beyond that, there are the leftover Yellow Dogs from the FDR coalition, but they are rapidly dying off. Where are the rest of these votes coming from to make the country so closely divided that the least-interested, most noncommittal and most easily influenced “swing voters” make the call each year, generally based on the brilliant analysis of how the economy is doing RIGHT NOW (and the faith that the federal government might actually be able to help it by actions other than just staying the heck out of it)?

    We live in a dumbed-down society. I fear for our future.

  • Coop

    I salute your dedication to taking our country back, ColdWarrior!

  • IJB
  • mboyle1988

    Neil, the last Rasmussen poll did have leaners. Rossi was leading 51-47 with leaners.

    The problem is the damn guy refuses to go negative. Sharron Angle needs to get up there and teach him how to campaign. He wasted money on a TV ad introducing him to the voters, as if he needed to do that. He just released a “negative” ad, but it doesn’t hammer Murray the way she needs to be hammered. I’m afraid he’s going to lose because he’s too nice. Big mistake. This is politics. NEVER be nice.

  • mboyle1988

    That the CNN poll put Murray ahead 9 points as well. Rossi went from a 3 point lead in the RCP average to a 4 point deficit. That is a swing, I believe that swing is real, and I believe Rossi needs to go negative to reverse it. I don’t believe he will go negative (see two previous losing campaigns). Thus, I believe he will lose.

  • IJB

    That’s why, this cycle, I was against nominating “retreads”. Luckily, that really only happened in one other Primary (Coats in IN, but he’s well ahead anyway).

    But once you’ve lost big races twice in a row, I believe it starts to scare some ‘floaters’ away from you.

    IOW, I basically agree – if Rossi tries to run this campaign like he ran the previous two, he’ll probably lose.

    But, then again, as proudgop points out, of the three states WA is actually the *hardest* for the GOP to win in…