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Dudley staying close, Wyden staying safe

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 16th, 2010 at 03:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Kitzhaber Dudley

Candidates matter. Even in a wave year, some candidates on the losing side will have no trouble. Dianne Feinstein was an example of that in 1994, and Democrat Ron Wyden appears to be one in 2010, as he is comfortable over Republican Jim Huffman in the latest SurveyUSA poll even as that poll and the Riley poll both have Republican Chris Dudley highly competitive for Governor against Democrat John Kitzhaber.

For Governor, Riley Research says their poll is a dead heat, and at Kitzhaber 40 – Dudley 39 (MoE 5), it basically is. A 54-46 split in favor of Kitzhaber is as close as it gets. SurveyUSA has a different result, though: Dudley 49 – Kitzhaber 43 (MoE 4.2). That I show as a 79/21 split in favor of Dudley. Interesting, as both polls are of Likely Voters.

To break the tie we can turn to Rasmussen Reports, who has Dudley up 49-44 (MoE 4) for a 73/27 split in favor of Dudley. It’s safe to say Dudley is probably ahead right now.

It’s very hard to say Huffman is close, though. SurveyUSA has Wyden up 54-38 (MoE 4.2). That result shows in my chart a 98/2 split in favor of Wyden, and since Huffman has been polling this badly for a while, 2% is probably an optimistic assessment of his chances.

Am I saying Huffman can’t win? No. It just doesn’t look likely right now.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • IJB

    …But I think they pretty definitely show what happens when someone challenging an incumbent is totally starved of funds and resources. The OR SEN was in reach earlier in the cycle. But without funds, I think Wyden has probably put this one away, unfortunately.

    It also appears that Murray has rebounded in WA – three polls in a row have shown her over 50%, which is an odd result in a state where Obama’s Approval numbers have been weak.

    Hey, Neil – any analysis of the PA GOV or MN GOV races coming up on your end? I’ve noticed that PA GOV has narrowed, but it still looks like Corbett will end up winning it about 55%-45%. Meanwhile, in MN, Emmer is starting to come on strong – if MN Indie candidate Horner’s support collapses, I think Emmer may have a real shot at it! :)

  • waxmanlaw

    Rasmuusen has run some interesting polls lately. I’ll be looking closely as he adjusts his turnout model come October. Printing polls with leaners before October 15th is risky. Before leaners the race is 49-46 which means Murray picks up 2% versus 0% for Rossi. That is hard to believe that the leaners break for a long time incumbent. However, this early it could be possible as it is very soft support. Come late October the leaners should break toward the challenger. Rossi has solid support of 85% and Murray has only 81% solid support. A good sign for Rossi. So the race is 39.7% for Murray and 39.1% for Rossi. Anyone’s race. Finally, Rossi has only 85% of the Republican vote in the poll. When that reaches the 95% or higher on election day the race will be a lot closer.

    On Oregon the difference is that Dudley is getting 82%R – 20%D – 61%I and Huffman is getting 74%R – 11%D – 42%I. Huffman has a lot of room for improvement. We will have to see how the electorate reacts after October 15th when things start to get serious for a vast majority of folks.

  • ciscoguy

    I’d sign for him going into election day down but within the MOE – voter turnout should make it a coin flip. This would be a really nice pickup and the twofer in ejecting “Dum-Dum” Murray.

  • Michael Schuyler

    There is no fire in his belly. His suits are immaculately pressed. He’s very polite. I’m sure his fingernails are well-trimmed and clean. His speeches are dull and boring. He acts as if he is entitled to run here and, indeed, we must admit he beat Didier handily. I’ll vote for him, but I sent him $1.00 because that’s how much he has inspired me.