Primary Day in New Hampshire

By: Neil Stevens (Diary) | January 10th, 2012 at 10:30 AM |

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Dixville Notch

I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses.

Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

The Suffolk University/WHDH 7 News tracker has seen Huntsman’s support double in just a few days, bringing the race to its current Romney 37, Paul 18, Huntsman 16, Rick Santorum 11, Newt Gingrich 9.

Rasmussen Reports suggests the same finish order: Romney 37, Paul 17, Huntsman 15, Santorum 13, Gingrich 12. Note that not only is the finish order the same, but the absolute support levels are similar.

Even PPP is in the same neighborhood. PPP has Gingrich jump a notch, barely slipping by Santorum, but Romney 35, Paul 18, Huntsman 16, Gingrich 12, Santorum 11 is in the same neighborhood.

UNH/WMUR seems to be better for Romney and worse for Huntsman at Romney 41, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 11, Gingrich 8, but again, same ballpark.

If all of these polls are wrong and we don’t get the same top three finishers, with Santorum and Gingrich fighting for fourth, I will be surprised. Open primaries are the next best thing to general elections for polling to work with, because the two are fairly similar. Turnout is lower, and committed supporters of the other party are less likely to show, but the principle is the same.

And what about Ron Paul? Not only is this an open primary, allowing Ron Paul’s non-Republican base to vote freely, but New Hampshire is the home of a fringe political movement called the Free State Project which which has brought hundreds of committed political activists to the state. Wikipedia says a dozen won political office in the 2010 elections. It’s a tiny movement with disproportionate impact because it brings people willing to commit to great efforts for their cause. And Ron Paul endorsed the project in 2007.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: 2012, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Newt Gingrich, President, Public Policy Polling, Rasmussen Reports, Republicans, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Suffolk University, University of New Hampshire, WHDH, WMUR

COMMENTS

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Kyle-MI

Is it big enough to switch any of the orders?
docaja

for John Huntsman to take his turn as front runner while we all whine about Perry’s incompetence as a campaigner, is it not?
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

I’m in a bad mood and I just might ban threadjackers.
docaja

Second paragraph refers to a Huntsman “rebound”. More like banning criticism of St. Perry.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

So what was your username when I banned you last time?
clowngirl

In 3 out of 4 polls he’s at least in the 30s rather than the 40s and Romney had a couple of last minute gaffes yesterday.

Maybe he could finish as low as 32, 33 percent. Would that constitute “underperforming” ?
Common_Cents

I’m watching a CSPAN “lesser known” candidate forum and they flashed on screen there are 30 GOP candidates on the ballot? lol, wow.
znjs

for the media to call this a big Romney win, and what would be considered a weak showing by him? I was hearing 20% margin earlier, wondering if that’s where you would place the over/under at.
Common_Cents

For a chance to consolidate and take on Romney. IMHO, Gingrich is the only one who can mount a decent challenge at this point.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

His margin over Paul is irrelevant as Romney and Paul don’t pull from the same pool of support.

If Romney gets below 35% I’d call it a failure to meet expectations.

If he gets a majority it’s a huge win.
clowngirl

Newt’s taken some fire for attacking Romney on Bain but, to some degree I wonder if that might actually reinforce him as being the more relevant candidate.

The Romney campaign and most of the media aren’t even bothering to attack Santorum.

And, in most of these polls, Newt is on the rise. Wish there was another week before the caucus- but it is how it is. But I wonder:

If Newt finishes with say 16% would that be “exceeding expectations”

A couple of these polls have him within the margin of error with Huntsman ( though they all have Huntsman consistently ahead.

A 3 or 4 point rise doesn’t seem implausible…

Wonder how Huntsman staying in would effect South Carolina.
acat

I do not expect the media to play anything short of a Romney-X tie as “weakness”…

I’d find anything below 40%, to be an indication of weakness, IMO, but .. I don’t expect the media to publicize it unless left with no alternative.

They’re in the tank, and Romney is one of our weaker potential offerings.

Mew
goodgovernance

capture the inherent volatility in the electorate of New Hampshire right now, or whether they might be lagging behind emerging trend lines. Just a few days ago the question was asked if Huntsman was “out of the hunt,” with the polls showing him in the single digit range. He’s very much likely to do better than that tonight.

It’s New Hampshire. The state really is a special place, and the people take the civic task of choosing a president seriously. Many people will be making a final decision in the polling booth, after having spent the last few days mulling their options. Anything could happen. Romney could blow out the rest of the field by huge, huge margins. Or not.

Go Huntsman!
septembergurl

There is an ARG poll that is consistent with these polls, showing the same configuration but with Huntsman at 18 and Paul at 17. Also the tracking poll (Suffolk) apparently showed Huntsman moving ahead of Paul on the final day of polling. Meanwhile, the contest between Gingrich and Santorum seems to have jelled a bit after going back and forth, with Santorum slightly ahead. so:

Romney. The question now is his margin of victory. He had gone up to 43 or so after Iowa but fell back over the last week. His range is somewhere between 31.5 and 37, the former being the number he got in 2008, and the latter being McCain’s number in that year. I expect him to come in at around 34 or 35, and whether that’s enough to claim the victory I don’t know. After NH he goes to states where he doesn’t have the homefield advantage, and where he leads but in his more normal of mid-high 20s.

Huntsman. He is the only candidate in the field with momentum, and like Santorum he is peaking at the right time. He is also the only candidate in the field with the potential to take votes from Romney. He is thus the only candidate in the race who can actually expand the size of the not-Romney vote. (Santorum and Gingrich have picked up votes from Bachmann and perhaps Perry, but they mostly take from each other, in a zero-sum game).

This simple fact has eluded all kinds of deep thinkers in the media and on the right, Though some are catching on — in today’s final broadside against Romney in the UL, McQaid tosses a few crumbs of praise to Huntsman as well as Gingrich. It’s hard to predict, though, how far his momentum is taking him. But it isn’t out of the question that he could pull in the low 20s, assuming that Paul loses some steam as well.

Paul: He tends to do a bit worse in the actual voting than in polling, coming in a few points under what had been predicted (as in Iowa and throughout 2008). I would look for 14 or 15.

Santorum. He seems to have stalled around 11-12. I had thought he would come in ahead of Paul, but now I don’t see that. He’s not a good fit for New Hampshire in many ways.

Gingrich. I think he comes in right after Santorum.

Perry: In South carolina today he pulled a Huntsman, saying that South Carolina picks Presidents and generally dissing NH. Way to come in ahead of Buddy Roemer!
bogeyman

is $1,000 but no signatures. There is enough vanity out there that I guess people just like to say that they ran for president. This makes Virginia’s signature requirements look excessive. There were 30 names on the ballot, listed alphabetically. Guess what? I was able to find my candidate.
david1313

Romney winning. I think, as stated above, the race after Romney is the one to look at, and will gather the most attention. I think after Mr. Romney the polls could be wildly misleading. There are simply to many undecided and the possilbity that a large group could break one way. There is buzz that there is a move toward Huntsman, and a little stir that Newt is gaining. I think that the real question though is Ron Paul, can he be second and how close will he be to Romney. This continues to be a problem for our primary, and I am most worried about it. For me, the worse outcome for the nomination would be either Romney or Paul. If that happened I would have to stop posting here, which I know would cause everyone to be very sad. LOL.
acat

IMO, anything under 40% is a sign that he’s vulnerable.

I mean .. his Home State of Massachusetts is very nearby, he’s a New Englander in many ways, and he’s been running since 2006.

If the best he can do is under 40% …

Mew
BrendanW

They are more interested in a story than in a Romney candidacy. Frankly the media narrative is giving Romney the win is Ron Paul territory.

Anyways – I think 35% or less and the media will go with the “it’s a race again.”
Death_of_the_Donkey

votes, since it has been demonstrated here many times that Paul’s support isn’t really from Republicans or likely general election voters. So I would re-tally the percentages with the votes cast as if Paul’s weren’t there to get a more accurate representation.
Change Jar Conservative

Then I could tell the grandkids that I ran for President one time.

I’ve spent $1000 on less.
Change Jar Conservative

Anyone hearing things from friends and neighbors.
federalfarmer1

I think that holds true for every candidate.
mikeymike143

1. Romney

2. Loon(Paul)

3. Huntsman

And Romney is going to absolutely win by double digits. I dont see anyone giving him a race.

My ”underdog special” is Newt. I think he will be the candidate that will outperform expectations(and yes, i have seen the polls showing he has been going down). I just feel that Gingrich will be the candidate that that does better than expected.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

I don’t think he cares what happens there.
BA Cyclone

….would you vote for yourself?
BA Cyclone

….would you vote for yourself?
acat

will morph into GOP votes in the general. That’s a mix of those who vote for him because they don’t find a candidate who hits their issues (anti-war GOPers exist, forex) and those new to politics who like what he says (college types).

Some of the Paul votes are “Operation Chaos” Dems.

I usually use 50% as a convenient number, so propose we reduce the total by half of Ron Paul’s take, and then re-calculate.

Mew
federalfarmer1

This is buddy roemer, one notch above vermin supreme. A candidate can’t be so unpopular in any one state that he loses to nonames like buddy roemer, and still be taken seriously.

He’s just hurting the anti mitt campaign at this point and saying he has a plausible path to victory is a joke.
jakeofalltrades

duh
texastaxpayer

Everyday your on here with some new reason Perry should quit the race, presumably because you mistakenly believe Perry supporters like myself will then band behind Mr. $300,000.00 dollars in ethics fines. It’s not going to happen. Get over yourself. Perry is in, Newt is losing more daily and your moaning and crying isn’t convincing anyone. Really try and produce at least one original thought today. It would be a nice change of pace for the rest of us.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

ask George Bush.
goodgovernance

it does raise the question whether Perry is now a regional candidate confined to below the Mason-Dixon line, and no longer a viable national one.
jakeofalltrades

This is so obviously true that I have to question your motives.
federalfarmer1

Newt and santorum can go to nh and get thousands of votes and find enthusiastic supporters. Perry may not get as many as buddy roemer. That says something about Perrys electability. Heck, smug huntsman snubbed Iowa and more than tripled buddy roemers votes.

The writing is on the wall for Perry. He should throw in with Newt and run interference for him to hasten santorums inevitable collapse. The quicker this gets to romney Newt Paul, the better the chances are that romney can be undone. Right now, romney has clear sailing due to stubborn conservatives refusing to consolidate. And its a joke to candidate behind a guy that may lose to buddy roemer in any election anywhere.
federalfarmer1

You can’t write them all off.
goodgovernance

Huckabee spoke on Sunday about how in 2008 he went to New Hampshire even though he knew he wasn’t going to win there, because he had to prove he wasn’t just a regional candidate. That’s why he applauded Santorum for not skipping New Hampshire, because otherwise the criticism would be that Santorum’s real appeal lay only with social conservatives that are mostly in the South, should he do well in South Carolina. Huckabee was right in that respect.
jakeofalltrades

If we’re looking at long-shot states being all-important for the GOP in the general, California is much larger than New Hampshire.
bogeyman

all over the country…Florida, California etc. In additions to dropping $1G they need to travel quite some distance.
parkfairfax

If Romney wins by 5%, the entire narrative will be weakness and how Romney fell so far from the polling trees in the last 48 hours and whether this was from his “firing” comment, Gingrich’s ads or the lack of enthusiasm from Romney supporters. Even if the media is in the tank, this is part of the Dimocrat narrative that the media will want to push.

Anything under a 10% margin will be covered half about Romney’s failure and the other about whomever was second.
parkfairfax

It’s one thing to focus on GE states during the GE, but NH is far more important to Republicans. CA has no value in the GE or PE other than getting some popular votes. NH has value for making it to GE. Perry is this cycle’s Fred Thompson crossed with Giuliani.
A_Texan

Huntsman has in three days, of successive two-day polling, gone from 9 to 11 to 13 to 16. By my amateur calculation, that means yesterday his numbers must have been around 19. And with the MSM drooling all over him last night and today, I bet that pushes him 20, in second.

My guess: 37 Romney, 20 Huntsman, 19 Paul, 14 Santorum, 12 Gingrich (and I think that’s close to 100%).
jakeofalltrades

We were talking about the claim that lack of support in NH means you are only a regional candidate.

My point is that GOP support already is regional, namely, the South and the Mid-West, the very regions goodgovernance lamented Perry would be restricted to.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

.
goodgovernance

What are you saying? Because NH went Dem the past two presidential elections, it means… every man, woman, and child in New Hampshire is a bleeding heart lib? That every Republican in that state isn’t a real Republican, just like the Iowa voters were “quirky”?

Look, there’s no point in getting upset at me. If Perry does well in South Carolina, the media are going to point at his results in Iowa and New Hampshire and raise the very same question as I did. And it’ll be a legitimate question to ask until Perry does well in a Northern state somewhere.
unclefred

nt
jakeofalltrades

I’m gonna give you the last word since adult conversation hurts your feelings.
goodgovernance

nt
jakeofalltrades

not really, but then again…
Common_Cents

Making a parody of the Dems, but the guy was real. hehe
federalfarmer1

We aren’t talking about Vermont or Illinois or states that have no chance of going gop. Republicans have been in nh for years campaigning and nobody is saying, hey, why not Perry? He’s as popular as roemer.

But whatever, the Perry defense force doesnt want to talk about his nonexistent support in nh so ill drop it.

Go not romney!
jakeofalltrades

heh
unclefred

along with some of the major candidates or their surrogates. His staunchly conservative speech received a standing ovation from the roughly 500 people in attendance. He also engaged in a bit of policy debate during the “questions” at another event.

Some of these candidates are looking 8, 12 or more years down the road. WHile they recognize they have no shot this year, they are beginning to build the experience they will need to launch a national campaign.

Mr. Callahan did not seem to be on an ego trip. He was well spoken and quite serious. Who knows where his political ambition will take him in say 16 years. http://www.markcallahan.net/
unclefred

Many of his “foot solder” are high school students give school assignments to work for a political campaign. A very large segment of his primary votes come from “primary day Republicans” who walked as independents, asked for a Republican ballot, and reregistered as Democrat on their way out. Without this kind of thing Huntsman would be in single digits.
unclefred

Huntsman is benefiting from those Dems too. Probably more than Paul. Paul is getting more benefit from the free state project, which has been injecting libertarians into the state in a significant way for a number of years.
unclefred

I was chatting with a friend who lives in NH. Last night about 8:30 PM the state police (and presumably other state workers) were taking down all political signs on public land. This morning the predominate signs that were put up over night, from most to least, were for Huntsman, Paul, Santorum, Romney. SIgn holders at her local precinct were Huntsman & Paul 3 each, 2 for Romney, and 1 for Santorum. Paul and Huntsman sign holders were students. At about 2:00 PM about 25% of registered voters had cast a primary ballot.

The signs were removed at the direction of the Democrat governor. This move clearly was to the benefit of Huntsman and Paul. Before you tell me that signs don?t matter, a significant percentage of people who get to the polls as undecideds have stated that the number of signs they see on the way to the polls influenced their decisions.

Gotta love the way the other side helps us with our primary.
acat

Not all libertarians vote Libertarian, y’know.

Do you want to hazard a guess as to how much of Huntsman’s support would dry up in the general?

That’s more the question – not whether Voter X is registered D, but whether Voter X would really pull the lever (or colour the oval) for Huntsman in the general election…

Mew
unclefred

In 2010 the Republicans, who had been in the minority in both houses won veto proof majorities in both houses, and had during the primary flushed dozens of RINOs off the ballot.

Kerry’s win in NH was extremely narrow and marked by some rather questionable voting along the sea coast and among college students.

The notion that NH is not winnable by a Republican is really rather absurd.
goodgovernance

I’m always amazed how frequently any candidate who does better than someone else’s favored candidate turns out to have been the favorite of non-Republicans and planted saboteurs.
unclefred

The percentage of libertarians who vote for the libertarian presidential nominee varies with how close they perceive the Dem/Repub race to be and who is running. This time around I would expect the majority of them to vote Republican, they love this country and our freedom every bit as much as we do.

There are a number of disgusted former Democrats who are now independents and will return to that status at the end of today. They will not be voting for Obama, however they are voting in the primary for Ronmey and are almost certain to vote for the Republican in November. They are ABO voters.

IMHO at least half, probably more, of Huntsman’s voters are of the “operation chaos” type, and will vote for Obama in the fall no matter the eventual Republican nominee.

Huntsman has also been courting the 18-19 year old vote very heavily. Literally the high school vote. They would probably vote for him in the general and not vote if he were not on the ballot.
http://redmerrimack.blogspot.com/ charliebravoNH

Republican ballots are going like hot cakes. At the precinct I worked at they were 8 times as many Republican ballots cast as Democrat ballots. What was weird was very few if anyone holding signs at the polling places. The crowd was not overwhelming but steady throughout the morning and early after noon. When I got home this afternoon my answering machine had a bunch of messages from the Paul and Santorum campaigns. It sounds like those two campaigns had their phone bankers working overtime.

I caution all of not to make quick predictions. The turnout is usually high in the Presidential Primaries. The local races are easier to predict. They were a lot of undecideds as of this morning. They were also a lot of frustrated registered Dems who learned it was to late to change their party registration and and had to take a Dem ballot.
There could be a surprise here, right now it is hard to tell.
znjs

nt
unclefred

My point is that because of its open status, and the precise implementation of NH’s same day voting laws, the “Republican” primary in NH really is not a good assessment of a candidate’s support among Republicans. This is also true for the Democrats BTW.

As for proof. Which primary a person votes in is public record. As is which party they listed as belonging to. If you really doubt this, the state web site will have this info in a couple of months (or less). You’ll see thousands of people who are listed as Democrats who are also listed as having taken a Republican ballot. As I said this works the other way when only the Democrat primary is contested.
acat

Got one handy?

IIRC, NH was when Obama really blew up, so .. it’d be interesting, historically.

Mew
acat

Also, and just so you’re aware, I’m a libertarian-leaning cat, although I fall into your “love country/vote GOP” pool.

About the only way I could see voting Libertarian is if they do a fusion sort of thing where their nominee is also the GOP nominee…. and that seems pretty unlikely.

Mew
http://redmerrimack.blogspot.com/ charliebravoNH

There isn’t a sizable African American Vote in NH. Obama would have to work hard to win the State. A message on jobs and the economy and a focus on Obama’s spending should carry NH 4 electoral votes in the General. NH is winnable in the General.

If the Republican nominee writes off NH, it would fall to the NH GOP to carry the load to win the State. They are many of us in the NH GOP who will do what it takes to win.
http://redmerrimack.blogspot.com/ charliebravoNH

Local governments often have their own sign ordinances. They usually rid public property near the polling place of ground signs.

I was told by our local Mitt Romney Town Chair that the Romney campaign wasn’t having sign holders at the polls.
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