Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

Death_of_the_Donkey

are there any recent polls on Newt’s name recognition and favorable/unfavorables for the general electorate?

Tbone

and Santorum finally drops out like he should have already, Newt goes to 50% from here on out.

It will good riddance of both of them.

http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

Gingrich, then Romney, then Gingrich.

Unless Newt’s running against himself (which really, he probably is).

http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Rushed this out while cooking.

http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

I use those as predictors when a candidate is lesser known or is surging suddenly. This is different and I don’t expect those will be so predictive as they were months ago.

fightnright

also, isn’t Mitt going to deliver some policy speech in the next few days? And yet another debate due before FL?

If a single debate flipped the numbers so dramatically in 48 hours owing to highly conflicted conservative voters, 8 days has an excellent chance of making a world of difference also.

ctredstater

so much of this process has been driven by the media-focused debates. I wish there had been a little more focus on governance (Perry, my guy, would have come out better on that scale).,

so much of the base wants, the Buckley formula, the most conservative candidate who can win.

because of the horrific nature of the Obama presidency – the 15 trillion in debt, the shredding of the Constitution, the upcoming Supreme picks, the driving force in this process is a variation of that – “which candidate can best and most forcefully articulate conservatism on the Big Stage of a national campaign?” the thought of Obama II is so terrifying that “electability” is the magic potion at this stage in the process.

right now, Gingrich is that guy. Romney has LOTS of long-term advantages, as of now. But there is a lot of history of inevitable candidates in meltdown. Just ask President Hillary Clinton,

The glass jaw of “inevitability” is that it is a bit like people who are “famous for being famous”. If there is no “there there”, it can collapse like a house of cards. Romney has been coasting on his pre-ordained nomination from the leftist and Beltway Republican media – and hoped others would simply fade.

Now that the field is cleared it is Romney versus one major candidate. The numbers change – and the psychology changes. Voters want a winner – and right now – at least for this 24 hour period – it seems to be Newt.

WillWong

Debate tonight in Tampa shouldn’t hurt Newt! Ads from Newt and his Super PAC should help Newt from here on out!

fightnright

yet Romney was ahead in FL until only then, IIRC.

Let’s face it, there were some major reasons that Newt was not the conservative choice for many years before this rocket-ride last Thursday.

I keep thinking of the old adage, ‘marry in haste repent at leisure’.

rams40

Boy, just wait’ll people hear that policy speech by Mitt Romney!

http://online.logcabin.org/about/ suzieQ

“New Jersey’s top politican, who was courted heavily by the GOP to run in the Republican primaries, called Gingrich an “embarrassment to the party” on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“He was run out of the speakership by his own party,? said Christie. ?This is a guy who has had a very difficult political career at times and has been an embarrassment to the party.?

The governor cited Gingrich?s $300,000 payment to resolve allegations of giving misleading information in a 1997 ethics probe. He was also quick to note that Romney, who he has endorsed, does not have such a scandalous history.

“I think Newt Gingrich has embarrassed the party, over time,” Christie said. “Whether he will do it again in the future, I don’t know. But Gov. Romney never has.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election-2012/chris-christie-newt-gingrich-embarrassment-republican-party-article-1.1010047?localLinksEnabled=false

benko

A fighter who can defend themself is what is needed to win.

Romney comes across as Gore/Kerry did i.e. he cannot connect with people.

WillWong

But that wasn’t the premise of your previous post! You wrote….

“Let’s see what one week of media airtime will do before we write Mitt’s obit”

Having said that, I see your point!

http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

-no-text-

fightnright

but I can honestly say for the first time in this primary I don’t feel that I have a preference for any dog (no pun intended) in this candidate hunt. Both Romney and Gingrich have so many negatives that I’m back to watching (scientific) polling and pulling for the guy who can pull out a win in November, only.

trickamsterdam

Obviously he can do well there too. He did basically tie in Iowa and won NH. That’s not nothing. People could also start to rebel against Newt if he seems to be cruising, like they’re doing to Romney.

I’ll tell you part of what I think is hurting Romney. I think the Establishment has lost faith in him.. They don’t want Newt, but I’m not sure they want Romney anymore either. Newt’s getting much better press than he did when he was originally the front-runner. FoxNews website has an essay comparing him to Andrew Jackson and Romney’s biggest fan Jennifer Rubin was hinting M. Daniels might enter the race and that would be good.

W/out the Establishment, Romney’s nothing, because the base never liked him.. He needs the Establishment to help him pretend that no one else but him could possibly win…so even talk of another candidate entering the race, hurts Romney because it gives people another reason to vote for Newt (to keep Romney from locking it up).

Where I disagree w/ people is when they say that Romney’s not a fighter and is a mediocre politician. His record is so liberal, that to get this far in an R primary, he had to have skill. He’s going to go down kicking and screaming if he goes down (and, indeed, I hope he does go down).

PS – I’ve heard there’s a PPP poll that’s going to come out tonight that either has Newt ahead or tied (even tied would be good seeing that he was down double digits).

http://online.logcabin.org/about/ suzieQ

Awesome. But mean. Made me spit my coke.

In The Hook

It doesn’t matter who fights whom or if the person throwing the punches really has any substance behind it.

I’m just as frustrated with Obama, the direction of the country and the crop of candidates as anyone else. But Newt? Really? That’s what we’re rolling with now? That’s borderline insane.

goodgovernance

As Mitt found to his detriment last week! But these latest poll results are good news.

I’m hoping Newt turns in another good debate performance tonight. It may be too much to expect Romney flounders again like he did in the last two, but you never know with that man.

If Newt can win in Florida, it will reshape the political landscape. And while I do find Newt to be a troublesome vessel for the hopes of the GOP (I was a big fan of Huntsman – to think it’s only been a week since he dropped out!), I think pushing back against the Establishment will ultimately lead to good things. Either Romney really steps us to the challenge Newt poses and finally proves why he’s worthy of our support, or maybe we all hash it out at the convention. At the very least, the Establishment will get the message they can’t just push us around no matter what they’re selling – “inevitable” is a polite way of saying “you have no choice,” and in Romney’s case, that was never the real scenario.

superrooter

I was looking for the like button, but Eric has not put one on here yet. Come on Moe, use your influence and get us a like button.

rams40

I find it hard to get excited about either choice. I do find it interesting that the GOP’s “most electable” candidate has lost 2 out of 3 elections inside his own party.
What happens if Gingrich wins Florida though? Is it possible there would be a panic among the establishment (definitely) and we could get another candidate as a desparation effort to stop Gingrich?

moodyboots

They couldn’t care less about the country. It’s all about their hormones. They want someone who will call Obama a socialist and make a lot of noise, who cares about the actual result.

I hope that if this goes through, the day after Obama wins and the Dems take over the House and win a supermajority in the Senate, these people finally take responsibility. But if they didn’t with O’Donnell and Angle, if they didn’t with the pathetic debt ceiling raise standoff that made the Tea Party and the Republicans hugely unpopular, I doubt this will be enough.

DVPTEXFLA

I live in Florida. Your ads are annoying. When they come on I change the channels. My guy is already out. Annoying me will not give me a reason to support your guy. Go back toe the drawing board…please.

http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

…but he was blacked-out [when he wasn't being ridiculed for events two-months remote].

benko

He can: explain conservative principles (see interchange with reporter last Monday debate); defend himself (Thu interchange with reporter) and knows how to get things done.

Know anyone else at all who can do that? Running or not?

Scott

Or will they take their ball and go home and not support him? They like to force a candidate on the conservatives and expect us to fall in line, but will they do the same?

Say what you will about Christine Odonnell and Sharon Angle, but when the establishment didn’t get their candidates, they took their ball and went home. They then blamed it on the conservatives.

miconservative

Those who believe Michigan is a sure thing for Romney are wrong. I don’t think Romney’s line at the last debate (and I paraphrase) “My father worked in the auto industry and I could have stayed and worked there as well, but I left” is going to play well in Michigan. The only reason he won here four years ago is because nobody else played except for McCain late. Guiliani was actually leading by 8 points in early December and then announced he wouldn’t campaign in Michigan. The Michigan is in the bag is typical Romney conventional wisdom, so let him come here and get beat and then he will truly be done.

DVPTEXFLA

In 2010 Florida republicans had a choice: Charlie Crist or Marco Rubio. The base chose Rubio. We saw what the republican establishment candidate, Crist, did when losing was certain. He chose to basically run as a democrat.

I never saw the republican establishment acccept responsibility for pushing Crist.

I will support who ever ends up as the Republican candidate. This is something that to many times we know that moderate republicans have refused to do when their choice loses the primary elections.

acat

President McCain would have been running the show.

Exit polling from 2008 does not support the frequent establishment whine that it was the religious-right who failed to show up for McCain.. instead, he lost in the squishy middle, by not attracting moderate GOPers and independents… in part because he did not seem to know how to fight.

Mew

goodgovernance

They hate him because he’s not one of them, which I think people sense and is why it’s useless for Romney to claim that Gingrich is a Washington insider. Meanwhile Romney comes across as someone who’s been converted to the Establishment even before he’s stepped foot in DC.

What the Establishment might ultimately do though is abandon Romney. Even they have no great love for him, they just saw him as the best candidate to maintain the status quo. That would mean they’d have to find someone altogether new to the race to support, but if push comes to shove they’ll do it to maintain their hold on power.

acat

Your anti-conservative anti-Tea-Party bias is certainly strange, being on a conservative-activist site.

May I suggest you’d be more comfortable over on Daily Kos?

Mew

uselogic

Hope they hear your advice and act upon it.

redcal

Politics is fundamentally narrative-driven, and Romney vs. Obama or Gingrich vs. Obama polls (right now) are close to useless, because the narratives for the general election have yet to be formed.

Look at how many narratives have been created for Romney and Gingrich so far; Romney was inevitable, then a flip-flopper, then ‘soulless’/coreless, then entitled, then glass jawed and a weak debater, etc. Gingrich was a washed-up has-been, then abandoned (after the summer cruise), then a too-nice guy in a world of attack ads (Iowa), then the assassin debater (SC just before the election), the comeback kid (SC) and now the co-front-runner. And even with all of the narratives for and against Obama, the eventual GOP nominee will have to figure out which ones actually get traction with the overall electorate (as opposed to just the base).

Narratives drive the numbers, not vice versa, and that’s especially acute this year.

lineholder

in one of your previous comments to moodyboots…about Coburn choosing Luap Nor over Gingrich, and how that probably ties in with who moodyboots supports and why this person is absolutely and totally dripping with fatalistic comments today.

http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

[n/t]

haroldhervey

The Newt Gingrich primary victory is proof positive the GOP in general and South Carolina Republicans in specific have lost their souls. Christian Conservatives have now lost the moral high ground for criticizing any politician for any moral or ethical failing. Forever.

Too many Republicans are confusing Newt?s grandiose debate oratory with strong leadership and ethical behavior. Just because he can bludgeon a hapless CNN host does not make Gingrich a worthy nominee. Thrashing the media with red meat does not a president make nor does it absolve him of committing serial adultery. Even if his ex-wife?s ?open marriage? charge is 100% false, the fact that Newt committed multiple adulteries is 100% true.

Giving Gingrich standing ovations and voting for him in the Primary firmly places the cloak of massive hypocrisy on Republican shoulders. Remember when Republicans railed against Bill Clinton for similar transgressions? They properly made the solid case that Clinton?s obvious character flaws didn?t represent traditional American values. Republicans also said Clinton?s lack of impulse control would display itself in the White House to damage him and tarnish the Office of the President. Shizzam, that?s exactly what happened!

None of those Republicans EVER spoke of ?redemption? or their Christian teachings about ?forgiveness? when it came to Clinton. They rightly demanded Clinton?s removal by vote or, failing that, impeachment. Republicans also rightly screamed for Barney Frank?s removal, called for Elliot Spitzer?s scalp and demanded Anthony Wiener?s resignation. The GOP and Christian Conservatives in South Carolina were on firm moral ground when they ridiculed and castigated those politicians. Terms like ?forgiveness?, ?redemption? and ?we should not judge personal behavior? never passed Republican lips in those instances.

And yet these same Republicans now bleat nonsensical platitudes about absolving Gingrich for similar moral failings just because he verbally crushed a liberal media guy on TV. They now ?forgive? Gingrich for getting fined $300K for ethics violations, getting booted out Congress for violating conservative values and taking millions from Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. And now they ?forgive? serial adultery in return for political expediency and entertaining debate sound bites. So much for ?family values?.

This all plays like a classic summer Hollywood adventure movie. Newt?s matrimonial treachery embraced by GOP double standards framed in a blockbuster titled ?Godzilla The Adulterer Meets King Kong The Hypocrite?. This makes for a great movie that Obama will debut for the election. Liberals nationwide are buying popcorn with the gleeful realization that Republicans will not be able to wear the ?Family Values? badge again?with straight faces.

The manifest hypocrisy demonstrated by the SC Primary voters ripped away the thin veneer of moral rectitude Republicans had for demanding ethical or moral behavior from ANY politician in the future. Considering they suffered through the Governor Mark Sanford circus you?d think they?ve learned a lesson. But their ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome) clouds any sense of logic, reason or moral consistency. Politics as usual.

These Republicans are willing to forgive and forget all those Gingrich sins but want to crucify Romney for changing his mind and Santorum for?..God knows what. How very strange.

These shallow-thinking Republicans ignore the fact they have alternative candidates that can bring the good fight to Obama. Rick Santorum is a steady, solid family man who can certainly hold his own in any debate with Obama and doesn?t have Newt?s obvious moral and ego failings. Same for Romney. Gingrich doesn?t just have ?baggage?, he has political ?cargo?. That?s why he as a minus 29% Favorability Rating in a recent Fox News poll.

These shameful Republicans think Independents will embrace a snarling, gruff and hostile Newt in debates when standing next to a cool, calm and serene Obama. While conservatives will vote for Bozo the Clown rather than Obama, the rest of American will not. Should he be the GOP Nominee, Gingrich will be the focus of the race rather in Obama?s failed term. That would be a tragedy!

redcal

Why he doesn’t take the lead from Romney major accomplishment in office and lead the way on RomneyCare, Jersey edition?

The only way that’s not an embarrassment to ‘the party’ is if Romney’s party isn’t the GOP, which would actually explain a lot…

moodyboots

and start defending a federal health care mandate and call Ryan’s attempt to cut the budget “right-wing social engineering”.

Oh wait, he just announced another tax reduction in New Jersey! And financed by spending cuts, not by deficit a la Bush. Yeah, in that case he must be a Rino.

redcal

And Romney is McCain 2.0 (now, even more milquetoast!).

He’s coming out harder post-SC, but he’s not a natural fighter and I suspect he will look like a flailing Glass Joe while Newt dispatches him in debate after debate.

conservativeparrothead

In the winter and spring of 2008, he was the only one who was beating Obama in the polls? Now, Im not sure Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney would of fared any better, but many, including myself bought into this narrative also in part that there was really nobody that I was all that excited about, I actually wanted Newt to run in 2008.

Remember, Reagan was in the high 30′s with two weeks to go before the election, but he was unpopular and the debates convinced Americans, lets go with this guy.

Right now, Obama is in the mid to low 40′s for approval ranking, now some of that is from the far left who arent happy GTMO is still open, or his cutting regulations or other things, but he still has a lousy approval with Independents its in the low 40′s, this is the teller for me. These people want to go someplace else, the debates will make that case late in the game and I think Newt is absolutely the right person to draw those distinctions and make that case.

conservativeparrothead

In the winter and spring of 2008, he was the only one who was beating Obama in the polls? Now, Im not sure Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney would of fared any better, but many, including myself bought into this narrative also in part that there was really nobody that I was all that excited about, I actually wanted Newt to run in 2008.

Remember, Reagan was in the high 30′s with two weeks to go before the election, but he was unpopular and the debates convinced Americans, lets go with this guy.

Right now, Obama is in the mid to low 40′s for approval ranking, now some of that is from the far left who arent happy GTMO is still open, or his cutting regulations or other things, but he still has a lousy approval with Independents its in the low 40′s, this is the teller for me. These people want to go someplace else, the debates will make that case late in the game and I think Newt is absolutely the right person to draw those distinctions and make that case.

joecollins

. . . to not vote early. It is better to wait until Election Day when all the information about candidates is available.

acat

They weren’t exactly all-in for Bush 2.0, y’know, and he won.

Twice.

Mew

jakeofalltrades

She’s desperate. That and the Florida polling… I seriously think everyone but Newt should just drop out now, because Newt has some serious inevitability going on now.

moodyboots

The only people who will think Newt won are very conservative voters.

Newt’s nastiness will be a turnoff to independents and moderates.

Plus, Reagan in the high 30′s with two weeks to go? You have no idea what you’re talking about:
http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf

wbf

nt

acat

Have you ever seen Obama without his teleprompter? It’s embarrassing! He makes Bush 2.0 look eloquent!

You’re asking me to believe that a guy who failed, as a guest lecturer, to even approach a tenure track is going to lose to a tenured professor.

I .. just don’t see it.

Finally, I see that you thought Gingrich was “nasty” in the debates .. but the only people Newt really went after were the moderators. Are you saying you most identify with .. media liberals?

Mew

wbf

A vote for Gingrich in the minds of many is a vote against Romney, a vote against the Establishment. I cannot blame anyone for that. I just find it tragic
that we are faced with this choice.

I am really surprised by Gingrich’s polling in Florida. If this keeps up he will be the nominee.

I thought I could vote for Romney as a protest again Gingrich. I can’t.
I am just sitting this one out.

redcal

Newt’s violations are all verbal — on the health care mandate, on dissing Paul Ryan — and he apologized for them.

Romney’s are far more serious — in actual governing, and in giving Obama the bipartisan air cover (and plenty of detailed policy) for Obamacare — and he still can’t/won’t/doesn’t-know-how-to walk it back, even verbally.

In The Hook

Rubio had some establishment support, but his campaign was truly grassroots. The huge difference between him and Newt is that Rubio is an excellent candidate with very little baggage (even the invented controversies didn’t stick). Once he proved he could win, the establishment got on board with him big time and did all it could to try and keep Crist out of the general as an independent. That failed, but Rubio did not.

Do I wish we had a Rubio type candidate in the presidential election? My God do I ever. But we don’t. We have what we have. Santorum is a great person but has no chance of winning the general. Ron Paul is Ron Paul.

Romney is a competent person but doesn’t have a bunch of fire. Newt is a hand grenade that’s gone off and been put back together several times. He’s hurt himself and others in both his personal and professional life on numerous occasions. He was kicked out of Congress by conservatives! His negatives are tremendous and throwing red meat that appeals to the base is NOT a general election strategy. And he’s the guy we want as our standard bearer?

I know, Romney is milquetoast and we need a fighter and blah, blah. That’s categorically false. Throwing out rhetoric that appeals to the 35% of the nation that appeals to conservatives and alienates the remaining 65% is a surefire way to kill us all. We need someone who can move people into our camp, not a Newt that just throws out ferocious statements that God knows he doesn’t really believe because he’s flopped as much as Romney.

Nominating Newt will “feel good” for the base. Just like it felt good to get rid of Mike Castle or keep out Lowden. Until the realities of the general catch up and we’re slaughtered.

The point is to win guys. You can’t change anything unless you win. No, Romney is not ideal, but we threw out the ideal generic Republican (Pawlenty) a long time ago for committing the mortal sin of not going after Romney full bore six months before any votes were cast.

redcal

Subtly titled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” Oh Mitt, you silver-tongued cad….

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/opinion/19romney.html

In The Hook

They never, ever have and Obama will never agree to the formats Gingrich wants. Even if he did agree to them, I genuinely do agree with moody here that Obama will hold his own. The man is a radical, a leftist, a socialist and totally out of touch with the real world. But he is also smart. He outboxed Hillary Clinton repeatedly and beat her in a campaign that was set up for her to win and win easily.

You don’t see it because you don’t agree with Obama on anything. Me neither. I’ve never understood what people saw in his soaring speeches because they sounded like bad televangelist stuff to me. But it was enough to win a wide majority in November 2008.

The guy is smart and a good campaigner. He’s proved that. He has the power of the incumbency, $1 billion in the warchest and a media that is massively in the tank for him. Newt just blasting away at the media will not move the needle one iota. All Obama has to do is stand there with an eyebrow raised and ask Newt why he’s getting all worked up.

redcal

Why don’t you just vote for Obama? I mean that seriously — It’s almost like you don’t believe that conservative ideals can win the narrative wars on their own, and that they must be watered down to make them palatable to the general electorate. Reagan proved otherwise.

And what makes Romney so competent? As far as I can tell, he can’t campaign (a 6-19 record in elections so far, despite spending FAR more money than the competition), he can’t govern (he basically followed the MA liberal trends rather than leading them towards conservatism), and he can’t build political capital while he’s governing (MA approval rating in the low 30′s by the end of his first/last/only term, even AFTER he sold out his party).

wbf

I missed your last two paragraphs….I think Gingrich, Romney and Santorum
are all insiders and big governent.

acat

Because, y’see, he lost it in part over “There you go again”.

Reagan knew how to debate.

I will remind you further that, of our current crop of candidates, Gingrich has coordinated and won a nationwide campaign.

I will remind you finally that Obama did *not* run a very good campaign, merely a successful one… had he faced off against Romney in 2008, he would not have done nearly as well.

As for whether Obama would debate or not, all Gingrich has to do – all *any* GOP candidate has to do is to schedule press conferences 4 hours after every Obama press conference, and ask the question “Why won’t he debate me?”. (a nice SNL bit wouldn’t hurt either…)

Mew

A_Texan

Maybe. THis Santorum supporter would probably go to Romney.

In any case, Gingrich’s surge has come primarily at the expense of Romney, both in Fl and nationally. In SC, both Gingrich and Santorum picked up considerable support after the Thursday debate.

I think Romney’s support is wide and thin, and if he loses Florida, his campaign implodes, and if Santorum can take 20% in FL, it will be a Newt-Rick race.

In The Hook

And you well know that my friend. Carter was mired in approvals around 30%. Not Obama’s present day 45-47%. Reagan won because ANYBODY the GOP put up there was going to win, just like anybody the Dems put up in 2008 was going to win because the country blamed Bush and the GOP for the nation’s misery.

Reagan’s only hurdle was to prove he wasn’t the crazy extremist the media painted him to be. That’s the only reason the establishment tried to rally support for GHWB. Once he proved that caricature to be false, he was well on his way. Yes the race was fluid with Carter for awhile, but it was evident that the latebreakers would go against the incumbent and there were a LOT of late-breakers in that race.

My quibble with Gingrich isn’t over some kind of extremism. I don’t think he’s extreme at all except in his rhetoric. My problem is with his history, his huge amounts of personal and political baggage and over his full fledged embrace of terms like “right wing social engineering” and his bear hug with Nancy Pelosi.

I know what I’m getting with Romney. I don’t love it. I don’t even like it a lot. But I’m getting a clean guy who would do a competent job and wouldn’t hurt the downticket races like a Gingrich implosion would.

Oh and dude, beating the Clinton machine is tough. Very tough. Obama, Axlerod and Rahm did a great job. The general election was basically cruise control, especially after the bottom fell out on the economy in the early fall.

A_Texan

Reagan frequently ran better in head-to-head match-ups against Carter. After the Dem. convention, Carter was slightly leading in some polls, but he too was mired in the low 40s at best. Reagan had one job to do in the debates, which was to show that he was a reasonable and nice guy.

Gingrich has ALWAYS run well behind Obama in head to head match ups. And a few great debate moments won’t close that massive gap. it will largely confirm his negatives. He’s a smart, but unpleasant man.

http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

Some will go to Romney.

Some will stay home and stand on their principles because their single issue isn’t being addressed like they want. If Obama wins re-election, it will be due to them. And they’ll be responsible for 4 more years of infanticide, not me.

A_Texan

If Bill Clinton tomorrow announced that he had converted to Catholicism, renounced his past adultery, and said he now believed in protecting the unborn, supporting traditional marriage, supporting traditional property rights and free markets, he would be forgiven. If we had his considerable political talents and resources on our side, I for one would be very happy.

And there would be nothing hypocritical about it.

There WOULD, however, be something IMPRUDENT about immediately making him our party chair, nominating him for President (if he were eligible), etc. And for that reason, I don’t favor Gingrich or Romney–recent converts and all that.

A_Texan

I don’t like how things are trending today, but this race has flipped, flopped, in so many unexpected ways, that it seems to me not improbable that another major candidate will enter, and/or we’ll have a brokered convention.

Or somewhat less unlikely is that Romney or Santorum will prove themselves strong, capable alternatives who can rally an enthusiastic base.

In The Hook

What about Newt’s history or hell, even his present-day views makes you think he’s aligned with the core ideology of this party? He’s not. He just knows what buttons to push and has the guts to push them even when his own record is far from what the base wants.

Romney has run a defensive, don’t insult the base campaign because he rightly figured that trying to persuasively make the case would result in a backlash. Well he got the backlash anyway and will have to deal with it.

Conservative ideas can certainly win across the country and even in moderate to somewhat liberal states. New York was still pretty darned liberal when Reagan carried it in ’84. California has changed from those times but yeah, Reagan took Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, etc.

My point is this: Newt Gingrich isn’t Ronald Reagan. He’s not even close. And what Reagan did is take conservative ideas, package them well and then project sunny optimism. Newt projects anger, and that works with the base right now because the base is p’oed. I share their anger. I want a better economy, a better president and better candidates to replace the ones we’ve got. I want Jindal, Ryan, Christie, Daniels, McDonnell, Rubio… SOMEBODY. Give me somebody with a solidly conservative background coupled with a happy warrior mentality that will drive independents to our side in droves. That candidate doesn’t exist. Well he did, but he couldn’t run a campaign (Pawlenty).

Instead we have a choice between a guy who could be a good CEO of the country and has a 50/50 shot of winning against Obama and a guy who has a 75/25 chance of blowing up our entire party and making us a national joke. Yeah, I know who I’ll choose.

moodyboots

Maybe, just maybe, you aren’t representative of the average American voter?

To me, the (over)usage of strawman arguments is a symptom of mental retardation.

Clarifying my point further: Newt’s confrontational debating style will be very appreciated by red-meat conservatives – the ones that are already voting against Obama anyway, the ones who think Obama is and has always been a colossal failure – and will be hated by anyone else – including the independents and moderates in the middle and the center-right.

dagnyt

I totally agree with you.

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

for daring to ‘put a black man in his place’.

Will it happen? It already has.

Even if he wins, Gingrich cant ‘win’ the independents that way.
Conservatives, sure, but we distrust the liberal MSM.

We will NOT win based on debates. We will win because we offer a decent alternative to a President who has failed on the economy and jobs.

A_Texan

I think it’s because they reasonably fear that Gingrich will lose by ten points nationally, and the GOP will lose the House and lose a few seats in the Senate.

http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

“My quibble with Gingrich isn?t over some kind of extremism. I don?t think he?s extreme at all except in his rhetoric. My problem is with his history, his huge amounts of personal and political baggage and over his full fledged embrace of terms like ?right wing social engineering? and his bear hug with Nancy Pelosi.

I know what I?m getting with Romney. I don?t love it. I don?t even like it a lot. But I?m getting a clean guy who would do a competent job and wouldn?t hurt the downticket races like a Gingrich implosion would.”

That’s the case for Romney in a nutshell, but …. do you see what’s missing?

What’s missing is a real POSITIVE and energized reason to be FOR Romney, disregarding other folks running. It’s the ‘I am settling for Romney’ line.

SC voters sent a message – we need a fighter, and not settle status quo.

acat

While Obama’s personal approval is still high, his job approval is at or below Carter levels. Same split, I’ll note, that Clinton showed. People like Barack and Bubba, but they don’t want ‘em as employees.

We need to run someone who can, unlike Bob Dole, articulate a vision and show some leadership.

Ace of Spades has a nice, long article that breaks down a number of the problems with Romney’s candidacy – Ace is neither 100% safe for work nor remotely PC, be warned.

In short, Romney has – thus far – run the Dole playbook, and it’s not a winner.

Mew

acat

fails to agree with your assessment.

Also curious that the only two candidates you could care to support – given your previous statements – are Obama and Romney.

Do me a favor. Go read this piece by Ace of Spades and see what you think.

In short, Ace identifies three changes Romney needs to make in order to shut down Gingrich and all but guarantee himself the nomination.

Mew

wbf

I needed an encouraging word!!

Tbone

I bet 75%+ will go to Newt. They are with Santorum because they already didn’t like Romney.

Tbone

It shows every time he opens his mouth.

moodyboots

Saying I’m wrong because of exit polls is like saying I’m wrong about Obama or FDR (Newt’s idol) because they did so well in elections.

I’ll make this very clear: suggesting I could support Obama is an insulting that only a mentally retarded person could do. Was this clear enough for you? I hope it was. If you don’t have what it takes to discuss with me, just remain in silent instead of using that kind of pathetic arguments.

Ace is another of the over-emotional nutjobs that is ruining the party because they value red-meat over what really matters. I strongly dislike Romney, but he is who he is and, fortunately, a boring, insipid candidate is exactly the way of beating an incumbent like Obama.

I mean, someone who thinks that what he need is a candidate that “will get angry” in order to beat Obama needs medical help.

wbf

I started reading it…it is a long post. I got half way through and just printed it out as I have to go now. I will finish it later.

Ace of Spades is right on target.

Have a great day!!

moodyboots

I have to stress I’m actually more on Romney’s side as far as this whole “say counterproductive things to show how angry you are, because of course voters really love a commander in chief who’s only barely keeping it together emotionally.”

But I’ve lost that argument. So has Romney.

But if Romney lost that argument, then red-m,eat conservatives like yourself got their way, Obama will win in a landslide and the top of the ticket will be such a drag that the Dems will regain the House, Pelosi will be Speaker again and they’ll get a 60 seats supermajority in the Senate.

jakeofalltrades

Just thought I’d bring that up.

swi2522

i want a fighter and newt is saying the things i want to hear as a conservative
i would like to think he has changed his mind on alot of previous positions. at least i hope so

LETS ALL STOP WITH OBAMA WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE AGAINST NEWT. NEWT IS THE ONLY ONE THAT CAN DESTROY THE PRESS AND OBAMA
i want multiple wins with newt and they are, throw out the rinos. make msm inconsequential to the web. chop the federal government in half using a chain saw and i think newt is the guy to do it

lineholder

Tell us exactly how being a “boring, insipid candidate” will help Romney to win against Obama?

snowshooze

I really don’t much care about it, but a lot of people will be interested.
I’m sure it would take an entire staff of accountants to really make any sense of it.
Some people will be shocked at the money.
The only value to releasing them is that Newt forced him to cave in.
And Newt forced him to debate in Florida.
So… Newt already has three wins against Romney before the first Florida debate.

Bill S

The Troll Tracker doesn’t show a hit. But Big Brother is watching…

moodyboots

than himself and his record and by not scaring the squishy indies and moderates.

lineholder

I think he could in some cases, but he won’t where O-care is concerned because both O-care and Romneycare are based on the same socialized health care model. Romney won’t have a leg to stand on in challenging Obama on that grounds.

How well do you think he would do in challenging the rhetoric of the MSM? The left isn’t going to go quietly into the night. They are much too close to accomplishing and achieving major objectives of their overall game plan. They’ve been scheming of this day for years on end. So once the nomination is final, they will unite behind a common cause of tearing down whoever the Republican nominee might be. How well do you see Romney as standing up to them and calling them on it when they say and print nothing more than lies about him?

acat

It is not enough to run an anti- campaign.

It is not enough to run a red-meat-to-the-base campaign.

Romney must stop hiding and come out swinging – effectively – if he wants to win this. He has to show some *leadership*.

The problem is, and the Ace of Spades article I sent you to makes this very clear, this isn’t Romney. He’s a stealthy fighter, his skill is hitting from where it’s not expected, not head-on confrontations.

I can respect that, but it’s not what is needed to win the primary, nor the general.

Mew

acat

especially about why McCain lost and why Bush 2.0 won.

Mew

WillWong

with Mccain in the debates in 2008! Pretty ordinary if you ask me! I suspect he will not agree to too many debates with Newt in which case, Newt will just follow him all over the country 4 hours later and provide a rebuttal each time. Works for me!

WillWong

Likewise the siiting on the couch with Pelosi….

Bill S

There may be an issue here.

acat

to make the case regarding jobs…

I understand the conservative objection to the “left-side” attacks regarding Bain, but .. it’s an obvious angle that will come up in the general, and thus far Romney hasn’t effectively defended his actions.

Shouting down the attack as “lefty” or “anti-capitalist” will not work in the general, any more than shouting down #OWS has worked.

Mew

In The Hook

Mitt overplayed his “don’t anger the base” hand big time. There’s no argument from me. I think I’ve made it clear I’m not a Romney fan but think of him as the less of the remaining evils, Paul being the absolute worst of course and Newt coming after him..

I can’t think of a single good reason for Newt. Having him throw bombs at Obama might make you feel good, but that good feeling will evaporate pretty quickly when he steps over the line and the public punishes him for it. We’re supposed to be the party of cool-headed logic, not mob-mentality emotion. Leave that for the libs.

I want a fighter too. I want a fighter with a record, not a guy who just chucks grenades everywhere and blows himself and his party up in the process. But there’s no “fighter with a record” in this bunch.

WillWong

Clinton was not impeached for cheating on his wife…..

He was impeached for Perjury and Obstruction of Justice! If you can’t get these little details right, it is difficult to take you seriously, however long your post may be!

lineholder

I’m actually one of those people who, even though I may don’t like the context of the Bain attacks, I do see them as serving a positive purpose in letting us know up front how well Romney would withstand this kind of scrutiny.

Because he will get it, if he wins the nom. He’ll get much more than what has existed so far.

WillWong

Saying that Newt will lost to Obama in a landslide…..The South Carolinians have just spoken loudly and clearly that Newt is most able to beat Obama! They may or may not be right but they have just spoken. And if the polls are to be trusted, the Floridians might just do the same as well. Until Mitt start beating Newt consistently, I would refrain from such hyperbole and just let these gladiators duke it out!

carolynr

something that was very important and very inclusive. This is a victory for ALL Americans. I know that many of you caught this. I think that this might be a good way to express to the Indies and Dems (the real ones left) that we are a big tent party.

Additionally, we have to solve the problem with immigration. To think that we are going to deport these people is pie is the sky. Should they be…according to our laws…yes. However, is this just rhetoric. We have to find a clear path for this. We will have to pick and choose…meaning…criminals go back. We will also have to look at how many are draining our assistance programs, particularly in urban areas and the State of California. We need a Latino vote to win against Obama. I know I am “using” these people as a means to an end…but I will do just about anything to get Obama out.

Samsara

Let?s take a walk around The Corner, shall we?

First watch Mitt Romney?s despicable attack add

Now watch Newt?s inspiring campaign add

Now look at the latest national polls.

Many thanks to our friends at the National Review.

texastaxpayer

He lost Iowa receiving less votes than 2008, his momentum in New Hampshire was media created casting him as the winner in Iowa. The 6 conveniently missing precincts are not likely to hold Romney votes as demonstrated by their 2008 numbers. His stunning loss in South Carolina coupled with his collapsing poll numbers demonstrate effectively that after 6 full years and tens of millions of dollars Romney is still no closer to being our nominee. He should show some pride and commitment to the conservative agenda and stop the hate ads and concede the race before he does more harm to our ticket and chances in November. Romney has been saying he loves this country and is dedicated to restoring our future. Here is an opportunity for him to put the country before his own ambitions. DROP OUT MITT…..

trickamsterdam

“let it be so”

(And, yes, if he loses Michigan he truly is done.)

Common_Cents

He went after Romney a little.

Hopefully he’ll hang it up after thursday’s debate and endorse Gingrich.

http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

—no—text—

Common_Cents

Time to drum up the tea party and send the establishment packing.

This election is too important to America, I don’t see the establishment sitting it out against obama if Gingrich is the nominee.

http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

he could be on suicide watch. Assuming, of course, he cares what conservatives think.

JSobieski

Newt has historical invested a lot of time and energy into reforming entitlements. He has been pilloried for it (“HCFA withering on the vine” etc). He made a POLITICAL ASSESSMENT regarding the popularity of Ryan’s plan and a tactical assessment that it was a losing proposition in the current political climate. Within 24 hours, he walked back the statement and said he was wrong.

Romnay implemented Romneycare was gusto. Is proud of it. He never apologizes for it. While Romney is constitutional in a way that Obamacare is not, defending Romneycare is like defending porn. “its legal” is no defense to saying something is a BAD IDEA. Romneycare is fundamentally a big government regulatory “solution” to a problem that was adopted into Obamacare. Romneycare is substantively speaking BAD POLICY.

To recap:
Newt made a bad comment based on a political assessment, and walked it back in 24 hours.
Romney implemented a policy monstrosity, repeatedly defends it, and justifies it by saying “its good for states to experiment”.

Bottom Line: If Romney really believes in capitalism, he wouldn’t support Romneycare.

The only defense of Romneycare that Romney should give is the following:

Romneycare stinks. The Blue Legislature was going to force something bad down the throats of the state. I tried to make it the least offensive version possible. Its a turd, but the result of a no win tactical scenario.

Common_Cents

heheh.

Xasteius

no text

Xasteius

“I want everyone in America to pay the same amount of taxes as Mitt”

Xasteius

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/sc

gracie

for him today! ‘fraid we are still going to be seeing him around. Also, Newt is going to need some serious money to fund a ground game.

Hey I wonder if Newt knows about RedState??

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

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