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Michigan and Arizona Poll Update

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 16th, 2012 at 03:00 PM  | 

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George and Mitt Romney in Michigan

Today’s Twitter talk is focusing on the March 1 debate in Georgia, but the Arizona and Michigan primaries come two days before then.

And it’s looking good for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney, even in Michigan, the state that was Romney’s big win last time, and where George Romney was once Governor.

The last 5 Michigan polls, end dates ranging from the 12th to the 14th, all show Santorum ahead. The leads vary, as each candidate shows about a 9 point range in his support, but that’s the kind of variability we might expect with Margins of Error ranging from 3.5 to 4.9.

The median support level for each candidate though is Santorum 38.5 (34-43), Romney 28.5 (24-33). Santorum’s low end is above Romney’s high end. The probability that Romney’s ahead right now is infinitesimal.

Arizona awards only one fewer delegate than Michigan, but it hasn’t been polled since 2/1. We could be in for a surprise there.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    the media is going to play a Michigan win for Santorum as a huge upset over Romney in his “home state”. Should Santorum win Michigan (and it looks likely), I am going to bet that he would have a better than 50% chance of being our nominee. The Romney campaign looks spent here and they really need a win in Michigan to stop the bleeding, but I don’t think they get one (also, Santorum is way ahead in Ohio too).

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    A Santorum upset there would be just as big.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/02/mitt-romney-to-skip-march-cnn-debate-114738.html#.Tz1b6rFaZkI.twitter

  • acat

    that anti-Romney-ism is due to his religion …

    Mew

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    I was pointing out that a Mitt win in AZ will be entirely preempted by a Rick win in MI. If Rick wins AZ too, it may be over.

  • kaheo

    By ARG done Feb 13-14
    http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/az/

    For poll enthusiasts, follow:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries,_2012

    Arizona is not entirely out of reach for Santorum. Newt is steadily declining there and further decline could make Santorum come a strong 2nd if not a win!

  • acat

    Does that make it an all-you-can-eat liver buffet for Gingrich .. or a waste of time?

    Mew

  • sethellis

    This reminds me far too much of the post Iowa polls that showed Romney with commanding leads even in his weakest areas like South Carolina.

    I simply do not think that such trends are sustainable. The numbers will probably narrow before the contest, but I have a hard time seeing how Romney recovers given the way things have gone for him this week.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Does anyone dispute that Mormons *do* tend to like Mittens?

    If Santorum can erode *that* base, then that matters.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That was a caucus. Caucus polling stinks.

    These are primaries. Primary polling is a known science.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    no-text-

  • jamesm

    Santorum is closing the gap from previous polling. Michigan seems it would be a bone crusher if Romney loses.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Mormon? Got to be pretty low, right?

  • jamesm

    Romney is in serious trouble

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    IF he wins big in MI. Romney may have opted out too soon, as a big win for Santorum (and the guaranteed media frenzy) may not give Mitt anytime to get back into it before Super Tuesday.

  • bankalyst

    He’s saying this is like “post-Iowa” polls in States that have primaries. Those polls changed from the time of post-Iowa to the primaries did they not? The question is, how accurate are polls at predicting primaries two weeks before the primary?

  • deVere

    I strongly suspect that Ron Paul, not Mitt Romney, was the winner in Maine. An update by Redstate’s expert editors on the Maine caucus results would be appreciated.

  • naraht

    Would a picture of Romney or Santorum in Michigan or Arizona be better for the article?

    See http://swampland.time.com/2012/01/27/qa-george-romney-biographer-dan-angel/for ID of picture.

  • naraht

    So the question as to what percentage of the Republican Electorate seems more appropriate (which I’m sure is higher)

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    that polls at this stage in the primary season, with no debates in between, and a narrowed field are much more accurate than what we saw after Iowa. This probably comes down to Mitt being able or willing to completely smear Santorum in ads in order to win Michigan. It worked in FL, but I am not so convinced that Rick is as easy of a target.

  • naraht

    I think a Gingrich-Paul debate would be even more interesting.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • bankalyst

    I don’t think you can extrapolate the Nevada experience to Arizona. Around 5% of the population is mormon in AZ vs. 2% for the USA. Nevada is both a larger percentage of mormons at 7-8%, and was a caucus state which is much more easily influenced by a large turnout of the minority group.

  • http://www.unifiedpatriots.com/ pilgrim

    http://www.adherents.com/maps/map_us_lds.jpg

  • jamesm

    and Ohio polls It would be devastating to Romney. Do you agree?

  • znjs

    If Mitt is skipping it makes sense for Santorum to skip – debates are usually where Newt gets his momentum; at this point Newt dropping helps Santorum more then Romney. But I don’t get why Romney is skipping it – he now needs to keep Newt alive if injured. If Romney was doing better rather then just having been swept and likely losing MI it would make sense to avoid giving airtime to his opponents, but that’s not the case. Don’t understand why Mitt would skip, can anyone else think of why he would?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ..

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    the % of Mormons of the total vote would be pretty low, ie 20% tops?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    …

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    a close guess as to their top % in the primary, but could be higher and yes, that could be decisive in an otherwise close race.

  • jamesm

    “Santorum leads Romney by an even bigger margin ? 58% to 30% – when the race is down to a one-on-one matchup in Ohio.”

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Most of you know I am a Mitch Daniels / Bobby Jindal / Marco Rubio / Paul Ryan brokered convention hope kind of guy.

    While I have no problem voting for Santorum, his comments on gays and women will make him a very hard sell to a lot of my middle of the road friends.

    If he can get a clear, clean message on economic policies, he may be okay.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Where he talked about indexing it to inflation.

    Or is that two obtuse for more voters (even in the primaries).

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    He wanted Newt to gain some of Ricky’s support.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    His NTU rating is very good.

  • sethellis

    I don’t understand what caucasus has to do with it. I’m simply saying that Santorum is experiencing the same kind of bounce Romney saw before SC. The polls have a tendency to narrow in the week before a contest. Romney was never as far ahead in SC as some of those polls showed. I don’t think Santorum really has an 18 pt lead in Ohio either. The polls are simply exaggerating recent moves, and will settle to more realistic numbers in the coming week.

  • bankalyst

    McCain and conservative immigration.

  • loneconservativeinpr

    I’m sure Neil used that picture of Romney and his father at NYC because Mitbot is running an add in Michigan right now about his “Michigan roots” and “being born in Detroit” using that picture showing how he “grew up going to the Auto Show in Detroit with his father.”

  • mfdegs

    Obama will win by a 2:1 margin (of electoral votes) if it’s the Sweater Vest.

  • WillWong

    Debate likely will be cancelled. Not good for Newt at all!

  • Finrod

    I only differ from you in that I’m pretty sure Santorum cannot win in November.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ,

  • deVere

    nt

  • Bill S

    And if someone found a way to keep Paul from winning, more power to them.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Not literal.

  • WillWong

    CNN, which is hosting the debate, said it will be canceled. ?Without full participation of all four candidates, CNN will not move forward with the Super Tuesday debate,? the cable network said in a statement.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/02/16/rivals-sting-gingrich-by-dropping-out-of-georgia-debate/

  • Aaron Gardner

    Should come in about a year, based on your comment history.

  • brand

    Aren’t Mormons voting for Mitt at about the rate that African Americans voted for Obama? What, the ideologies were that similar between the two groups and their chosen candidate? Really? I mean, Utah is just a whee bit more conservative than Massachusetts.

    Naa, I’d say 9 out of 10 Mormons are in the tank for Romney, no matter what he does or says.

    So, yeah, Mormons tend to like Romney!

  • acat

    Clearly, Romney polls well among Mormons.

    I am more curious whether Santorum beating Romney among Mormons will have any impact on those who believe the reason Romney isn’t doing well is anti-Mormon bias.

    Mew

  • brand

    I’d rather roll the dice at this point, than go with what we’ve got.

    Personally, I think we could win behind Newt, but he’s getting awful press, and now he’s getting screwed out of some free debate love.

    I will never forgive Romney for what he did to Republicans in Iowa and Florida. He didn’t just harm Newt, he harmed the entire country.

  • deVere

    Someone ought to stop Ron Paul from taking over Republican state organizations, but they won’t succeed that way.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So you assume the Paultards are honest, and people finding a way to stop them is the fraud?

  • znjs

    But honestly I doubt it would’ve worked anyhow – I suspect that Newt and Santorum would’ve spent the whole night playing buddy-buddy while taking potshot after potshot on Mitt.

  • mfdegs

    merely stating the facts. Romney has a shot to beat Barry. Rick? Don’t think he can do it.

  • mikwcas

    today i began my grassroot campaign in metro detroit to help get Rick the win here in MI. and believe it or not i all rady got a paul-bot to switch his vote to rick as much as he loves ron paul he realizes, now, his vote is just a vote for jerk romney, so he’ll now be voting for rick!

  • snowshooze

    Were it me, I would have gone to the debate.
    And when Romney’s name came up…
    ” Mitt Romney??? Is that guy STILL running? I don’t see him..”
    Oh well..

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    It’s long past time we stopped with the debates, until such time as Barack Obama is one of the participants.

  • snowshooze

    And against Obama and his billion dollar political machine, I think it’s about even money my dog would win.

  • jamesm

    Romney could have used the opportunity to present some new idea. He is behind in most Super Tuesday states. I guess he thought the Santorum/Gingrich combo would put him on the ropes. Now the National Journal is attempting to put the best light on it for Romney.

  • miconservative

    The numbers being reported here in Michigan are real. Romney’s message in Michigan is terrible. Santorum is surging across the board. Don’t believe the crap the Romney people will try to peddle that it is Democrat crossover voters putting Santorum over the top, we have an incredibly open process. The polling shows that Santorum is actually near a majority with Republicans and almost a 20 point lead over Romney. Romney narrowly wins independents voting in GOP primary and Dems are split about evenly between Paul, Romney and Santorum. With Very Conservative voters Santorum has a massive lead.

    Santorum gave a great speech to the Detroit Economic Club today about the future and what he will do to move American manufacturing and our economy forward that was very well received. Romney meanwhile was out receiving the endorsement from his 1 millionth establishment Republican Gov. Snyder.

    Romeny, Michigan’s hometown boy, also had to explain why now his favorite team is the Red Sox instead of the Tigers he allegedly grew up cheering for. Santorum on Frank Beckman show today, Conservative morning talk in Detroit, was asked if he would don a Red Wings jersey to court our votes. He said no that he wouldn’t sell out his hometown Penguins to win any vote unlike some that would sell out the Tigers for the Red Sox. Know it sounds stupid but that means something to a guy like me. I am a Wings fan but I would think less of Santorum if he sold out his hometown.

    Romney people trying to say it is Florida all over again. Don’t believe it. In Florida Romney was on TV for weeks laying a foundation, had lots of staff and grassroots organization, was sending mail and phone calls to early and absentee voters. None of that has been done in Michigan. While he has a lot of establishment endorsements he has had 1 staffer, a third tier guy, and no grassroots organization, no mail, no phones, no tv, no nothing. Now he hopes that massive tv ads will bring it home. Santorum and the Santorum super pac are up, although smaller buys than Romney and his super pac, but are in the game and with momentum.

    I almost believe it would be an upset if Romney somehow pulled it off in Michigan.

  • ceili_dancer

    would beat Obama in today’s economic climate. The whole electability scam is a way to have a non-conservative play up stereotypes of conservatives and say they can’t win because they are,… icky.

  • miconservative

    Does anyone have any idea if there is paid advertising going on in AZ?

  • clintonformccain

    Nobody is quite there yet, so I think that months from now, if that is the case, all bets are off as to who it will be, willing to offer up themselves up in their name in service to their country.?

    ?I would do whatever I could to help,? she added, her voice rising.

    Read more:
    Politico story

  • acat

    It’s only really a loss for Gingrich… Romney only looked good in the early debates by comparison.

    Mew

  • jamesm

    Romney’s message terrible? Just curious. Is it his television ads?

  • deVere

    Well on second thought I suppose that all the irregularities are probably accidental, and the fact that something very similar has happened in both Iowa and Maine is just a pure coincidence.

    Perhaps once you regain your interest in “piddly” Republican caucuses, you will give us the benefit of your own seasoned professional judgment.

    http://www.ksla.com/story/16937227/reality-check-was-there-voter-fraud-in-maine
    http://www.wabi.tv/news/27694/waldo-county-gop-votes-for-censure-of-state-chairman
    http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9123
    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2012/0215/Should-Ron-Paul-demand-a-new-vote-count-in-Maine
    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/02/ron-paul-maine-caucuses-recount-/1?csp=34news#.Tz195PHy-BI

  • jamesm

    at the scientific polls. They want you to look at Intrade. I wonder if Romney has enough money to buy stock in Intrade. LoL. Here is the link.

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/team-romney-on-michigan-dont-look-at-the-polls-look-at-intrade.php

  • miconservative

    shows romney driving through a burned out ghetto in Detroit and saying how horrible things are in Michigan which plays into a stereotype of what the rest of the nation thinks of Michigan. We in Michigan may think that is true of Detroit, but it is certainly not true of the rest of the state which we love. It also shows pictures of him here as a kid, but he left and it all went to hell. Where you been buddy? He also published an op-ed in the Detroit News defending his position against the auto bailout. That may sell even in certain parts of Michigan, but in the Detroit market he has been sliced and diced by everyone. And he didn’t need to go there. Santorum wasn’t going to attack him on it so why bring it up? Tell us what you want to do to make it better and there is none of that. Santorum on the other hand is talking about his tax plan that will sell greatly in Michigan. Romney is falling and his terrible message won’t bring it back. Super Pac hitting Santorum as a liberal, pro union guy, but conservatives I talk to aren’t buying it especially from Romney.

  • miconservative

    has Santorum at 53.9% chance of winning Michigan. I put it higher than that.

  • jamesm

    while claiming to be a Detrioter!!??? That is too funny. This guy seems out of touch. What a disaster.

    Thanks for the info

  • rightland1111

    so good for winning. Governor Perry got him three times during the debates. He got all flustered and bothered and he looked bad..even if the MSM tried to paint it another way.

    I did notice something about Santorum…the last debate, he reeled in WILLARD like he had hooked him good and let him run with the bait for a while and then reeled him in. Santorum kept asking questions and Romney shot himself in the foot.

    I don’t think that Romney will beat Obama…but then I can only hope that all these polls are wrong. Sometimes when I am on the Washington Post…I wonder if there are that many people in America that can’t see through Obama.

    A paperbag should be able to beat Obama. However, Romney was set up and served (OWS, etc.) and that is why Obama wants Santorum gone. I think Gingrich is the visionary…if only he would stay on point.

    What the hey…we had our Reagan…we had our chance…now he’s back in Texas. So we have been reduced to Romney’s obvious pandering, the MSM’s obsession with contraception and Santorum and Gingrich’s wives.

    Oh well, maybe 2016.

  • jack0001

    I just did a little reading on Larry Sabato’s website going over the Romney/Santorum race.

    Basically, Santorum’s strength lies with evangelics and Romney strength lies with non-evangelics.

    So, in my mind the real question is whether Romney can carry evangelicals if he wins the nomination, and/or can Santorum carry independents if he wins the nomination.

    I am inclined to believe that Santorum will not be able to carry independents.
    religious conservatives will have not where else to go but Romney unless they sit on their hands. I hope they dont.

    Now, lastly, i dont believe we are going to have the issue of Obamacare to motivate voters in November. I believe that the supreme court will rule it unconstitutional.

    So, it is imperative that republicans, fiscal consevatives, social conservatives, so called above it all independents, band together to end the obozo administration.

    WE CANNOT ALLOW THE SOCIALIST LIBERALS TO DIVIDE US AND CONQUER SEGMENTS OR OUR PARTYTHAT WOULD DILUTE OUR STRENGTH IN NOV.

    obozo must be defeated at all costs or the capitalist republic that we now live in will be a thing of the past. It will take generations, if ever, to undue the damage that obozo and socialist democRATS are infliciting upon us now.

    ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO ABO!

  • acat

    Reagan lost in 1968, but Nixon was better than Humphrey….

    I’ll survive the next four years … somehow.

    Mew

  • acat

    Enthusiasm gap, for one thing.

    The move I found most interesting was Mormons who tended to split about 60/40 GOP are trending closer to 80/20 GOP…. and their larger concentrations in certain western States are giving the Dems fits.

    I forget where I read that, alas.

    Mew

  • rightland1111

    Lots. Thanks Kitty.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Cut the Ronulan conspiracy mongering.

  • znjs

    amongst themselves to have this debate cancelled.
    CNN’s storyabout the debate being canceled says that Romney and Paul told CNN they were dropping out. And with Santorum apparently not yet having told CNN but already not planning on going it’s hard to believe they all separately came to this decision.

    I guess they all decided (other then Newt perhaps as he hasn’t been mentioned) there had been too many debates too.

  • jon11

    Old markos moulitsas is coordinating a campaign over on the kos to get michigan dems to vote for santorum.

    Thats not coming from the romney camp. Thats a fact. They’ve done it before in michigan.

    if we’re stupid enough to nominate rick santorum we don’t deserve to govern.

    and we won’t.

    best we can hope for is to hold on to the house.

    Conservatives take power for granted. They’ve grown up in a center right country and can’t imagine it ever being otherwise. Can’t imagine what its like to be the minority. They don’t appreciate it. Which is why they are all to happy to risk it on a candidate no one honestly believes can win the general.

    But we gift wrap 2 or 3 more elections for the secular left and conservatives are going to find out what its like to truly be on the outside looking in.

    And our kids are going to grow up in a completely different country. ‘Europe without the quaint cafe’s and cobblestoned streets’ as coulter put it.

    But maybe that has to happen. Some people can only learn through suffering. You can’t miss something until its gone.

    Im still praying for sanity to prevail but im less and less hopeful.

    Oh well, i went to grad school in holland, spent two years there and it wasn’t all bad.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    ?

  • http://tuleya.com Tuleya

    The convention is less than 10 weeks before the election. This kind of idea would only work with a convention. Lincoln was nominated in May. Ford won the nomination over Reagan in August of 1976 and we know how his campaign was.

  • WillWong

    Newt has at least one more comeback!

  • bs61

    by Newt and Romney. But I’m not expecting much since McCain was reelected!

  • http://tuleya.com Tuleya

    I agree Romney will be a better President, but Santorum is not as awful as you make him out to be. You are also correct in highlighting that this is an open primary. I do not expect Romney to win. The polls are all over the place because those that include Democrats show Santorum winning easily. I’m not sure the turnout for operation Hillaryty will be as much as they expect.

  • demsaresatanic

    running away from the debate and this sparks off another Newt run.

  • WillWong

    among themselves to back out of the debate…..Newt was left in the dark. Very obvious that they believed Newt is the best debater and decided to freeze him out! This should provide some free publicity for Newt’s phenomenal debating skills.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil truth

    Rather than collusion, the more straightforward explanation is that each of the three campaigns judged it to be in their best self-interest to not participate in the debate.

  • WillWong

    All three decided that they stand to lose more than they can gain from the debate and one can only guess why they thought so. I am guessing that after 20 debates, they are quite fearful of what Newt can do and would rather opt out.

  • Bill S

    The means justify the ends. Anything to get rid of that whack job is fair game.

  • trickamsterdam

    Except, Ron Paul can’t be the nominee…but he can help stop Romney from being the nominee.

    If Romney steals the Maine caucus, he’s trying to stop Santorum’s momentum (which occurs every time Romney loses to anyone), not stop Ron Paul.

    In other words, if he stole GA from Newt, he’d really be hurting Santroum (or a candidate from a brokered convention) not just Newt, because he has no right to those delegates.

    I know Maine’s non-binding, but it stopped Romney from being called a loser, again, right after he’d been swept.

    So it’s similar to chess…you’re taking your opponent’s pawn, but you’re really after his king.

    The same way, if Romney loses to Newt in VA, it’ll probably be the race that knocks him out, even though it doesn’t move Paul closer to the nomination (it may be the only state Paul wins, ironically). Because for Paul to beat him would show his incredible weakness.

    By the way, it turns out Romney will probably win anyway, after the recount…but it was good that one is being done and it is/was an issue:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57380581-503544/mitt-romney-gains-votes-in-updated-maine-count/