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Bob Kerrey’s unfriendly welcome back to Nebraska politics

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 9th, 2012 at 01:00 PM  | 

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Nebraska

Medal of Honor recipient, former Senator, and former Governor Bob Kerrey has announced he will run for Senate in Nebraska to replace Ben Nelson, the man who replaced him in the Senate. Common sense suggests a multiple-time statewide winner with a distinguished personal history would be a favorite to win the open seat.

New polling however suggests Kerrey is a large underdog to Republican Jon Bruning.

Rasmuseen Reports polled 500 LVs in Nebraska on March 5, MoE 4.5. This is the first poll since Kerrey’s decision.

The result was surprising, to me anyway. Bruning leads 55-33. There’s no doubt about that result. Bruning appears to be the huge favorite, especially if this poll is backed up by similar findings in future polls. Open seat races are supposed to be close, and challengers aren’t supposed to poll well over 50. But Attorney General Bruning first won statewide office 66-34 in 2002, and won re-election unopposed in 2006 and 2010. He’s no ordinary challenger.

It appears Bob Kerrey will need more than his name, his electoral history, and his outstanding military service record in order to return to the Senate.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • dpmaine

    Bob Kerrey is not well liked in Nebraska. This shouldn’t be a surprise – he’s seen as an incredible opportunist and just an average politician. Betting on other polls to confirm in the next weeks..

  • DerKrieger

    …has a chance.

    The seat is open because Nelson is cutting and running because he knows he’d lose reelection due to his vote for Obamacare. The votes of NE know that a vote for another Dem would yield the same results. Fool ‘em once..

  • proudgop

    He was back in W Village on Saturday night because him and his wife were eating at same restaurant as I did. He lives 3 streets over from me and his children are still in NYC schools.

    I really hope voters in Nebraska arent fooled he is a NYC resident in every way.

  • naraht

    As best as I can tell, the only Democrats elected statewide in Nebraska in the last couple of decades are Nelson, Kerry, Kerry’s 2 LTG (from when he was GOV in the 1990s) and the last State Auditor prior to the current one who changed parties from R to D.

    Note while both Lincoln and Omaha have Democratic Mayors, both are in office by less than 1000 votes, Lincoln’s in a general election and Omaha’s surviving a recall election by that much. Both Lincoln’s mayor and one of Kerry’s LTGs have expressly declined interest…

    *Utah* may have a better Dem bench than Nebraska does right now…

    Always better to have a somebody than a nobody (or nobody at all) on the ballot, just in case of an October Surprise.

  • http://www.sourceoftitle.com skymutt

    It’s the fact that he was caught willing to switch his vote over some pork. He’s poisoned the waters in a state that was already going to be a tough nut to crack for Democrats. I really don’t think Kerrey has much of a chance either, and am not surprised by the poll.

  • nofernsnoquiche

    The Dems thought they had a safe Senate seat in Massachusetts when the early polls gave the Dem Atty General a large lead over Scott Brown….then she went on vacation and the rest was history….

  • tacitus56

    Regardless of who?s ahead in the polls, I?m just happy Ben Nelson is leaving. He?s terrible.

    Before we get too excited, it?s important to keep in mind that this poll comes from Rasmussen, whose results are typically ?outliers? showing way more support for Republicans candidates than other polls do. Rasmussen?s been under fire for a long time about this, and also their refusal to show how they come up with their results. It?s really frustrating because they?re usually the most aggressive about polling the races I?m most interested in.

    Hopefully another outfit will poll this soon so we can see how Kerrey really stacks up.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    No, Rasmussen’s polls aren’t “outliers.”

    Rasmussen called the 2010 wave while everyone else was predicting Speaker Pelosi would be retained.

    So you’re completely wrong. I award you no points.

  • jomo2009

    Kerrey that Debra Winger is completely over the senator thing. Talk about there are no second acts in life…

  • drohan00

    Ed Zorinsky former mayor of Omaha won that seat for the Democrats in 1976 and the R’s haven’t made many of the races close since then.

    Jim Exon has also won statewide in Nebraska going back to 1990. I think you are right about the Democratic bench in Nebraska. They are not organized and no Democrat is going to do well in 2012 because the Douglas County GOP is actually going to work this time, instead of sitting there letting Obama take an electoral vote.

    Kerrey is not popular in western Nebraska, and will lose this area by a lot.

  • drohan00

    The former Senate nominee for this seat in 2000. Also Stenberg was the former Attorney General and is very popular among rural voters. I think he will win big in all the lightly populated counties in the GOP primary and that will make quite a difference.

    Also, I think the Rasmussen poll would be the same for any GOP candidate. I think Deb Fischer is a good state senator. I think Bruning can be effective in Washington, and Stenberg (who is my first choice) has won statewide four times, each time with nearly 70% of the overall vote.

    The key to this race is the Lincoln and Omaha GOP people. They are the ones who let Kerrey in the senate and Governor’s mansion to begin with. As long as Omaha and Lincoln Republicans support our nominee, we will win in spades.

  • tacitus56

    I really admire your work for Red State Mr. Stevens, so I’m a little hesitant to disagree, but here goes.

    First of all, polls from Rasmussen Reports are indeed often outliers, and typically by a wide margin, and almost always in favor of Republicans. I’m going to provide the same URL that my lefty brother provided me a year or so ago. Warning: It’s an article by Nate Silver, but try as I might I wasn’t able to disprove much of anything in it, and in fact found a lot of corroboration for Silver’s analysis. I very reluctantly had to award that round to my brother.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

    If you look into the commentary from just about any outlet regarding Rasmussen Reporting, you’ll see more or less the same thing: their methodology is suspect, and their results aren’t too good.

    You mentioned that “Rasmussen called the 2010 wave while everyone else was predicting Speaker Pelosi would be retained.” I’m not sure what you were reading, but months before the election, most people–left, right, and center–were predicting not just a Republican takeover. I remember because I took special joy in watching Daily Kos posters hang their heads glumly for months before the election.

    So, as much as I’d like to believe Rasmussen’s polling, I trust them about as much as I trust the left-wing Public Policy Polling–which is to say, not at all.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Try using fact, not lefty propaganda.

    You’ve discredited yourself by aligning yourself with that hack Silver.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Try looking up the difference between a likely voter poll and a registered voter poll.

    Perhaps I shouldn’t mock you for being profoundly ignorant. Because you clearly don’t have a clue.

  • Kyle-MI

    I remember it from when he was elected Gov and his Senate races. Although Nelson was more moderate, Kerrey had more charisma. Although on the other hand, moving to NY didn’t sit well with some back home. Before this poll came out I was a little concerned how all of these competing forces would work out.

    I am happy to see this poll confirms my faith in the good people of NE.

  • Adjoran

    since his Senate days. He’s been President of the New School, a bastion of NYC priveleged neo-Marxists, and completely out of touch with Nebraska for more than a decade now.

    They call it “desperation.”