By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 13th at 10:30 AM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right. So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen. But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th at 12:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up. So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th at 11:30 AM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have. I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 11th at 11:00 PM  | 

So, while Google may have seen the light on Net Neutrality (which is actually, amusingly enough, making the far left sound like me), they still have other issues going on. The WiSpy Street View spying issue is still ongoing, with South Korea raiding their offices and Germany pressuring the firm to be more transparent and responsive to privacy complaints about the program. Because as I | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 11th at 04:30 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: I keep insisting the Ohio Senate race is going to be as drum tight as the Pennsylvania race, but polls like the Ipsos survey for Reuters may force me to re-think that. Especially when Rob Portman is showing a massive fundraising advantage, a 43-36 lead (MoE 4.3) over Lee Fisher among likely voters is serious news.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 11th at 03:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll. Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 10th at 01:30 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 9th at 11:00 PM  | 

Today Google and Verizon changed the landscape of the Net Neutrality debate in America, by putting out a joint proposal* for FCC Internet regulation. This is a proposal that ideally should be implemented by the Congress, which has the proper authority, and as described I support it. The fact that I’m fine with it of course means, as I predicted, the fringe radicals at Free | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 9th at 10:00 AM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Mason Dixon polled the Georgia Republican primary for Governor for the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, to see who might face Roy Barnes in November. With the runoff tomorrow, it’s looking good for Karen Handel as she leads Nathan Deal, despite the problems we’ve seen with primary polling this year.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 8th at 05:24 AM  | 

What happens when an Internet troll goes outside? Open Thread.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 7th at 04:50 AM  | 

We’re very late “tonight” for Tech at Night on “Friday,” but that’s because the time I normally spend on these posts I instead spent setting up my new iPad, which I will need for next month’s RedState Gathering. So apologies all around, and here we go. Net Neutrality news is picking up steam. While the official story is that the FCC has cowed before Free | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 6th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 5th at 12:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Carly Fiorina’s support continues in a band of 38-43 in the new Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race, while Barbara Boxer fails to reach 50. Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 4th at 11:30 PM  | 

Tonight, we start with a longer note that requires some setup, so bear with me as I break from the usual format for a moment. ––– The FCC’s attempt to reclassify broadband as if it were a telephone service had already encountered opposition from a strong, bipartisan majority of Congress – not to mention usually Democratic allies like the AFL-CIO, CWA, IBEW, LULAC, MMTC, NAACP, | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 4th at 10:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: When I heard yesterday that Missouri passed an initiative attacking the PPACA in state, and declaring that Missouri’s citizens are exempt from portions of it, I thought it would be interesting to compare that Proposition C’s results with polling on the issue in state. So let’s check.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 3rd at 12:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 3rd at 11:00 AM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: While the Pennsylvania Senate race has lived up to my expectations of volatility (Rasmussen has swing from Pat Toomey +8 to Joe Sestak +4 back to Toomey +6 most recently), the race for Governor has been pretty boring. No matter how many times this race gets polled, Republican Tom Corbett defies the recent partisan trend of Pennsylvania and consistently leads Democrat Dan | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 3rd at 09:30 AM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too. Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 3rd at 01:00 AM  | 

Good evening. It’s going to be short tonight, because I don’t actually have anything new to say about G—– or F— P—- tonight, as against freedom as they both are. But I will say this about Net Neutrality: competition from new technology is the way out of any problems we have with the ISP monopolies and duopolies that state and local regulators cram down our | Read More »