Incumbency Matters: The Joseph Cao story
Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer. By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why | Read More »
, Cedric Richmond
, Congressional Quarterly
, Hotline On Call
, Joseph Cao
, Market Research Insight
, Verne Kennedy
, William Jefferson
Gallup generic ballot suggests 45 seat Republican gain
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years. Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.
Reversal of fortunes in New Hampshire?
We’ve already seen that Republicans are in fair shape in the New Hampshire Senate race, but it appears that the state could also return to its historical norm of sending Republicans to the House, according to the latest from PPP.
, Carol Shea-Porter
, Charlie Bass
, Frank Guinta
, Jeanne Shaheen
, John Sununu
, Katrina Swett
, Kelly Ayotte
, New Hampshire
, Paul Hodes
, Public Policy Polling
Gandalf and the Bots
“It’s a pity Bilbo didn’t kill him when he had the chance.” “Pity? It was pity that stayed Bilbo’s hand. Many that live deserve death. Some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them, Frodo? Do not be too eager to deal out death in judgment. Even the very wise cannot see all ends. My heart tells me that Gollum has some part | Read More »
Obama’s 2008 Victory in Perspective
It’s going to happen, and we all know it: after two close elections, some Democrats are going to claim that Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain was a large, overwhelming repudiation of the Republican party, and that it was possibly even a historical turning point of partisan political realignment. There’s just one problem with that theory: It’s not true.
A few points on tonight
Point one: There’s no need to start pointing fingers within the party. This election was on style, not substance. No faction’s to blame, and no policy is at fault. We know this because Obama won. He ran on no ideas at all. We all went into this together with the wrong idea. We just need to learn how to win again, rather than try to | Read More »
How Obama treats us and how we treat Obama
By now it’s become a Known Fact™ that supporters of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin shout nasty things about Senator Barack Obama at rallies, and have gone so far as to call for the Democratic nominee’s death. Obama has even attacked McCain for it. This of course means it’s not true. The Secret Service is as non-partisan a group as you will find, | Read More »
Is it time to give up?
The entire election has changed tones since recent events in the financial world have gotten the public’s attention. At least, in my view it has. Until the last week, I have believed that regardless of the Congressional outlook this year, the Presidential race would be close, with a slight advantage to us, the same as the last two Presidential elections. Not anymore, though. I think | Read More »
So I saw a bumper sticker today…
I may live in California, but I live in a sane part of California. We vote Republican, we have a good mix of suburban and rural lifestyles, and we don’t have crazy rallies for illegals or activist homosexuals. We also don’t generally see those bumper stickers that leftists are known for putting on their cars. In the last few years I’ve seen more signs for | Read More »
How nervous are the Democrats getting?
I’m getting a sense that the Democrats are becoming nervous: Months after I posted a couple of anti-Obama videos, only now am I getting a series of semi-literate critical comments on YouTube on my account and my videos. I tend to delete these things, but in they come. It makes me smile.
Democrats caught flat footed
How well did the McCain campaign fake the whole world? Here’s how well: the DNC’s page The Next Cheney which aggregated talking points against our likely VP nominees didn’t even mention Governor Palin as of this morning. The Next Cheney is of course the page that was already known for suggesting Eric Cantor is shady because he’s Jewish. Many of us have feared for years | Read More »
You are the one McCain is waiting for
Much virtual ink has been spilled Internet-wide on the problem of Senator McCain’s running mate selection. Policy views, succession, age, experience, home states, and every other conceivable preference are touted by one person or another as essential to the pick. I say they’re all right, and they’re all wrong. You should be John McCain’s running mate in 2008. It’s perfect! You are in a swing | Read More »
The State of the Race in National Polling
Based on data conveniently aggregated for me by resident poll addict Adam C, I would now like to try to make sense of the recent national polling of the Presidential election, excluding tracking polls which are more useful for measuring movement than status. The polls included in my survey are as follows: NOTA: None of the Above. LV: Likely Voters. RV: Registered Voters. Poll Date | Read More »
IOC shuns Iraq
All about the athletes? Free of politics? Who told you the IOC’s Games were either of those things? When the IOC will ban Iraq from the 2008 Summer Olympics over the politics of bureaucracy, you know there’s something else going on. This is just more national prejudice from a group known for it. I bet you Zimbabwe, Cuba, and Iran have no trouble getting in, | Read More »