Here are the the last 60 years’ worth of midterm losses, going back to the second Truman midterm, according to Wikipedia for election-on-election losses, which is the standard I use all around. For 2010 I’m using the current CNN projection of a 65 seat Republican gain and a 243 R – 192 D House. Click for full size goodness. Congratulations, Mister President.
The time has come for the Senate Republicans to begin thinking about what to do with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which this last cycle was run by Senator John Cornyn along with bureaucrat Rob Jesmer. Before any Republican endorses that team to go ahead and run the committee for another cycle, I urge them to consider alternatives. The NRSC has the name and the | Read More »
Some will try to minimize the importance of any Republican gains tonight by saying the Democrats were bound to lose. Some will even say Democrats had a baked-in loss of 45 or more seats, which implies they had no hope of keeping the House at all, no matter what policy aims they worked to implement. The problem is, that’s nonsense. Cutting to the chase: while | Read More »
I’ve obtained a few documents and one link which really tell us where we are in California right now. Per the polling, which has remarkably projected in California little or no TEA party/Republican/Independent/conservative backlash at all, I still see Carly having a one third shot to win this, and if we saw polling which actually demonstrated a partisan enthusiasm gap, that number would have been | Read More »
Imagine if Sarah Palin promised reporters she’d take questions, then ran out from the event through the side door to avoid the questioning? Now imagine if Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell did it. The same shunned press would call them out for it and say they were fake or even avoiding accountability. Palin, of course, was accused of being entirely unqualified in part to avoiding | Read More »
That’s where we are now in the California Senate race. Babs Boxer’s campaign made an organized, coordinated effort to reach out to schools, supplying teachers with information to disseminate out to students telling them how to volunteer for the Boxer campaign. That is not in dispute. Boxer’s campaign has admitted to it and apologized for it. Of course, what they’re really sorry about is getting | Read More »
Continuing Politico’s apparent strategy of linking to obscure polls that say bad things about Republicans for shock and traffic value in this wave year, the site now reports Joe Miller to be in last place. For several reasons, one has to discount this poll’s predictiveness of the coming election.
By request, I’ve decided to take a look at just what kind of electorate the Public Policy Polling screening of Likely Voters seems to be predicting. To do this I will use recent PPP polls from two states: California, which went for Barack Obama heavily, and West Virginia, where Obama’s popularity has never been that hot.
As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome. That said, I’m beginning to notice a pattern in the polling between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina that suggests serious, late-breaking movement in favor of the Republican. | Read More »
I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling. I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, | Read More »
It’s getting remarkably rough for the Democrats out here in California. Long, long time Assembly Speaker (and then after 1994 booted him out, San Francisco Mayor) Democrat Willie Brown has no confidence in any of the top Democrats, saying they have no ground operation at all. He applied that to Jerry Brown (Governor), Gavin Newsom (Lt. Governor), and Babs Boxer (Senate). The Chamber of Commerce | Read More »
Republican Pat Toomey has been rather comfortable in the Pennsylvania Senate polling. He hit double digits in the last Rasmussen poll a week ago, and Democrat Joe Sestak hasn’t led a poll since one weird outlier in the middle of May. For PPP to show Sestak up today is definitely surprising, and noteworthy, but it’s possible this is an outlier.
It’s late but this is worth noting. I’ve discussed before just how fraudulently Loretta Sanchez was able to get into the House, and how terrible it was that Republicans gave up and seated her without a real fight. But now’s our chance to fight. Internal polling suggests it’s a real race in CA-47, and Van Tran has a new ad, too. We failed to fight | Read More »
For a while now I’ve been calling the Nevada Senate race tied. Before the primary, Repbublican Sharron Angle led comfortably. Right after the primary, Democrat Harry Reid won 9 of 10 polls. Then came a stretch of polls in the last few weeks of September which included 3 Reid leads, 3 Angle leads, and 2 ties. That was what I easily called a tied race. | Read More »
This is a relatively easy ballot to fill out this time. California Democrats are just that bad, down the line. Governor: Meg Whitman. Easy call. No matter what you think of her, Jerry Brown was a disaster of a governor, and he has the nerve to ask to go back. That’s unacceptable. Lieutenant Governor: Abel Maldonaldo. This guy probably doesn’t have any fans among conservatives, | Read More »
It’s no wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, feared by Barack Obama, is ready to spend another $1.25 million educating Americans about the dismal failure that Babs Boxer’s 28 years in DC have been. Since Carly Fiorina started her ad offensive and kept piling on, the polls have been moving. The television barrage has come just at the right time. While a month ago it | Read More »
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder. But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old. So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for | Read More »
I still have the Washington Senate race as one of the four closest, despite Republican Dino Rossi taking a decent lead over Democrat Patty Murray in recent polling. This is why: both candidates have been capable of rattling off good polls, and one new result at any time can come out in favor of either candidate.
One goal’s already been hit, but they’re raising the bar. Retire Boxer. My latest projection has this a competitive race, right on the second tier roughly. She’s running ads on television statewide and she’s fighting hard. This is an expensive state and she could use the help. The NRSC is also putting money in, so we’re not alone in helping out. Remember: national Democrats were | Read More »
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