Do southerners do well in Presidential elections? Two of the last three Democrats to win were southern Governors, and the last two Republicans to win were Texans. That’s all some need to pencil in Rick Perry, two and a half term successor to George W. Bush, as a likely Republican nominee in 2012. The latest from Rasmussen suggests his run for a third full term | Read More »
It’s slightly old but I know people are interested in this race, so an actual Rasmussen primary poll between Republicans JD Hayworth and John McCain. McCain leads, but is he doing well?
Since my last look at the polling in the California Senate Primary we’ve had no new primary polls, though in the general Rasmussen now shows Babs Boxer running poorly against all three Republicans. +2 over Tom Campbell, +3 over Chuck DeVore, and +4 over Carly Fiorina are not the numbers three term incumbent Democrats should be pulling in a state where Democrats capable of beating | Read More »
If the Democrats want to regain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate they have to win seats in their home turf, and that includes the New Hampshire seat of retiring Senator and Republican Judd Gregg. Rasmussen carpet bombed this race, which fortunately only has three likely matchups.
Should the Republicans get lucky and take the Senate in November, Patty Murray’s is the kind of seat they will have to win. Washington is friendly territory for Democrats and 2010 should be no exception. However, a poll from late Friday suggests that she may be vulnerable to Dino Rossi and only to the former candidate for Governor.
Yesterday we looked at a poll from Public Policy Polling, but today we have a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Amusingly enough, while we’ve seen Quinnipiac overcount Democrats in Ohio, their results for Specter and Sestak come in just under PPP’s findings.
If we look at a series of five polls of the Wisconsin Senate matchup between Senator Russ Feingold, Democrat, and former Governor Tommy Thompson, Republican, we find a broad range of results. On no news can we really expect the race to move 16 points in one week? Some of these have to be wrong, but will we ever know which?
Rasmussen Reports has a new Nevada Senate poll out, and the results are looking terrible for Harry Reid. The Democrat is looking likely to be the second consecutive incumbent floor leader for his party to be voted out of office. Conventional wisdom says incumbents below 50 are vulnerable. Well, two of the three Republicans running to replace him are now above 50, and the third | Read More »
USC and the LA Times polled some of the major California statewide races. The results, provided by pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint, seem generally in line with what we’ve seen so far: Campbell and Fiorina are in a close primary race, lagged by DeVore. Boxer can’t reach 50. Whitman cruises in the primary. The big news to my eye is that Jerry Brown | Read More »
It’s late; I spent a lot of time preparing my nationwide modeling software, but here’s a quick look at the Arkansas Senate race, per Rasmussen. It’s a mess.
Here is the amendment that Tom Campbell asked John Campbell to withdraw, an amendment that would have withdrawn funding for a number of NSF grants. These aren’t earmarks, but is this wise spending?
Rasmussen Reports has a new one on the Ohio Governor’s race. Kasich 46, Strickland 45, MoE 4.5. 54% chance Kasich is ahead according to my model, down from the 80s a couple of weeks ago. This is more consistent with the previous trend and seems to confirm the RealClearPolitics theory that Quinnipiac has a few points of bias toward the Democrats in Ohio polling.
Updated: I’ve been sent a passage from the Congressional record illustrating that the specific spending Tom Campbell defended was not an earmark, but rather an NSF grant. So, while it makes sense that John Campbell’s amendment would target such a thing as wasteful spending, this specific amendment that Tom Campbell opposed addressed “peer reviewed” grants, not requests by members of Congress. Different process. John Campbell | Read More »
Quinnipiac University released a new poll on the Ohio Governor’s race that has caused a stir. It shows Governor Ted Strickland, Democrat, ahead of former Congressman John Kasich, Republican, while previous polling showed the reverse. The swing is large at first glance. Should Ohio Democrats be excited? Should Ohio Republicans panic? Let’s unpack this.
I won’t hide it. The primary election polls have been as lousy for Chuck DeVore as they have been for Barbara Boxer. Some are giving up, but I think it’s far too soon even to consider that. So I stand with Jeff Flake, who just endorsed DeVore, as well as Jim DeMint, Tom McClintock, Dana Rohrabacher, and the California Republican Assembly. I back Chuck DeVore | Read More »
The Eeyores of the conservative movement are all over this Obamacare vote, declaring that we’re doomed to perpetual socialism because Republicans never repeal anything. To them I say: bah. We’ve never been in this situation before, where we’ll actually win an election on the heels of passage. Social Security: Passed in 1935. Republicans take House and Senate in 1947, 12 years later. Medicare and Medicaid: | Read More »
There are those on the right who now believe that the passage of Obamacare is inevitable. I don’t know; I don’t think public whip counts are worth the pixels they’re printed on. But I also know that elections have consequences, and up to now it’s been remarkable just how much a complete failure President Obama has been in achieving his platform. It won’t surprise me | Read More »
On the heels of a Rasmussen poll suggesting Democrats should worry about Senator Barbara Boxer’s re-election chances, comes worse news from Field for the three term incumbent. The raw numbers: Campbell 44/Boxer 43, Fiorina 44/Boxer 45, DeVore 41/Boxer 45, 3.7% Margin of Error. My model’s win percentages: DeVore 29% , Fiorina 44%, and Campbell 55%.
One point I initially missed in my previous article on the California Senate race (Cross-posted to RedState), and only later pointed out on Twitter, was that the Democrats should be scared to death about the current polling of Babs Boxer versus the Republicans. Our worst result against her right now gives us a one in four chance to win. One in four sounds poor, but | Read More »
The California Republican primary race to determine Barbara Boxer’s challenger is getting heated. And while all of us in the state have our biases and preferences, here’s what my cold, hard math says about Rasmussen’s latest poll. As with last month, the poll again covers all three likely challengers to Barbara Boxer. It shows Fiorina 40/Boxer 46, DeVore 40/Boxer 46, Campbell 41/Boxer 43. All have | Read More »
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