By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 13th at 02:00 PM  | 

We now enter week two of The Hill’s series of district by district polls in pre-selected close races. Week one had some good results for Republicans and week two seems to say much of the same.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 12th at 07:01 PM  | 

Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each: Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 12th at 01:00 PM  | 

Carly Fiorina is still fighting hard against No Ma’am Boxer, and it’s good to see. I like this one, it’s short and it’s simple. It takes extra work to cut your typical online ad down to a 30 second (minus BCRA requirement) slam, and done well it matters:

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 11th at 11:00 AM  | 

Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried. Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 6th at 08:00 PM  | 

Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 6th at 11:00 AM  | 

I’ve given up on polling of individual House districts. Even if we see more than one poll of a given race, it’s usually all from the same pollster for the same client, a local newspaper or media alliance. These polls are erratic and without multiple sources to verify the figures, it’s hard to draw value from them. So even though I’ll stick with the wide | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 1st at 04:00 PM  | 

Scientific polling, based on the laws of probability and the compounding of likelihoods, is a mathematical activity. It’s all about the numbers. Without the numbers no poll has meaning. That’s why I highlight key facts like Margins of Error. Your typical internal poll release is very low on numbers and instead is a one page memo. Those releases can be based on sound polling practices, | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 30th at 07:00 PM  | 

Back when Democrat Patty Murray got several good polls all at once, taking nearly double digit leads over Republican Dino Rossi in the Washington Senate race, I didn’t think it was a fundamental shift of public opinion. I called it a “good week,” and when her leads dropped, I said the race was returning to a tie. The new Rasmussen suggests I was right and | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 30th at 03:30 PM  | 

Wisconsin is traditionally the most Progressive state in America. Progressives win there. Progressives have long won there. Progressives have won there even in years when they lost in much of America. Wisconsin even went in for the La Follette-founded Progressive Party, making it a highly successful third party within the state for about a decade. So I’m just at a loss for words as to | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 30th at 01:30 PM  | 

Do you want to beat Harry Reid, and on top of that elect a true TEA party candidate to the United States Senate? We’re capable of doing that in Nevada. Sharron Angle has withstood so much pressure both before and after the primary, so many bad polls that have been underestimating her from day one, and she’s come out of it all keeping the race | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 29th at 12:30 PM  | 

The Illinois Senate race keeps going back and forth. Republican Mark Kirk led a while, then Democrat Alexi Giannoulias took it back, but now having won three consecutive polls including PPP’s latest, it seems that Kirk is definitely on top again. It’s so close though that the polling of third party candidates is a serious issue. It may not matter in the end, though.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 28th at 02:00 PM  | 

Some states get seven or eight polls of their Senate races. West Virginia has had two: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. And honestly it seems that we were lucky to get PPP to jump in there. But now that Rasmussen’s latest is out, it’s official: Republican John Raese leads all the current polling over Democrat Joe Manchin.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 28th at 01:30 PM  | 

Any political party must work as a team to win. While the primary process will become at times a competitive and even divisive, any inability to set those feelings aside and back the nominee will give the party trouble. A few Republicans this cycle know what kind of trouble that is, but none has more than Dan Maes against Democrat John Hickenlooper for Colorado Governor. | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 27th at 01:30 PM  | 

This new poll of the California races by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for USC and the LA Times has been discussed from one side of the Internet to the other, and back again. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let it go without chiming in, now would I? Of course not. So let’s dig in.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 27th at 12:30 PM  | 

The last SurveyUSA poll of the Kentucky Senate race showed Republican Randal Paul running away with it from Democrat Jack Conway. However the new one tells a completely different story in its top line. When two polls by the same firm of the same race differ by that much, there has to be a story behind the story. Fortunately SurveyUSA’s detailed public reports make it | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 24th at 07:00 PM  | 

I am at a loss as to how to analyze the polling of the race for Governor in Florida. Of the last four polls at Real Clear Politics, Republican Rick Scott leads according to Rasmussen Reports and Ipsos for Reuters, while Democrat Alex Sink leads acccording to Mason Dixon and CNN/Time. Two polls concluded on the same day (Rasmussen and Mason Dixon) are not supposed | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 24th at 05:53 PM  | 

Barbara Boxer, having been in Congress for 28 years, is a clear expert on where to go, and what to see, on the taxpayer dime. Here’s a great new site showing her expertise as compiled in Boxer’s new book: Five Places to See Before You Retire: A Senator’s Junket List. Also make sure to help her pick a retirement spot for when Carly Fiorina charges | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 23rd at 02:00 PM  | 

Here we go. Just when I started to think she needs to kick things up a notch, Carly Fiorina has taken to the air against Babs Boxer statewide. The ad is called “Sir,” and introduces all Californians to Ma’am’s incredible arrogance:

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 23rd at 01:30 PM  | 

A flood of new polls about New York Senate races came out today. Chuck Schumer still looks safe, but the polling is variable on the special election between Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. We’re now beyond the idea that only one poll, one time showed the special election to be competitive. Polls showing a Gillibrand blowout are now the minority.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 22nd at 03:30 PM  | 

Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive. So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and | Read More »