Is Rasmussen biased toward the Republicans? Not in California.
Certain critics either say or imply that Rasmussen Reports is skewed toward Republicans, just because this cycle he predicted early that the 2010 electorate would look nothing like that of 2008. But that’s not the same as having a partisan bias, and in fact, comparing the latest Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race with SurveyUSA hints there is no such partisan bias to be | Read More »
Incumbency Matters: The Joseph Cao story
Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer. By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why | Read More »
, Cedric Richmond
, Congressional Quarterly
, Hotline On Call
, Joseph Cao
, Market Research Insight
, Verne Kennedy
, William Jefferson
Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.
Rubio battles back
For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it. I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.
Fiorina also makes it close in California
Following up on yesterday’s Field release which saw Democrats bleeding the Latino vote in California, this poll of the Senate race brings more personal bad news for Barbara Boxer: her job approval ratings have sunk underwater, joining her personal favorability ratings.
Whitman makes it close in California
Before the primary, for a while when Meg Whitman was campaigning and Jerry Brown did not have to, Whitman took a lead in the race for Governor in California. It didn’t last, but the latest Field Poll is good news for her, and not just because it shows her with only a one point deficit.
, Barbara Boxer
, Carly Fiorina
, Field Poll
, Jerry Brown
, Meg Whitman
, Proposition 8
, San Francisco Chronicle
A follow up on the Kentucky Senate race
Jim Geraghty points out a possible issue with PPP’s polling in Kentucky: PPP has Democrats taking a greater share of the 2010 electorate than the exit polls gave them in 2008. That strikes me as most unlikely. Democrats were remarkably motivated in 2008, but it is Republicans who enjoy that status today. So I’m inclined to discount PPP’s result of a tie in Kentucky.
What is going on in Kentucky?
With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie. Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?
Tied in Georgia
John Oxendine has long held the lead on the Republican side of the Georgia primary for Governor, but if InsiderAdvantage’s poll for WSB is accurate, that has changed. It’s tied says this poll, and Karen Handel made it one.
Ehrlich takes a lead in Maryland
In sports there’s an old saying that I like to quote: “It’s not a rivalry until both sides win.” I’m thinking it’d be wise to extend that to political polling, and say that a race isn’t truly close until both sides have led. In that case, the Maryland Governor’s race is truly close now.
Fiorina calls out Boxer and Obama on border security
In the past some have questioned Carly Fiorina’s commitment to securing the border from the invasion of illegal aliens, but she’s issued a strong statement challenging Babs Boxer and Barry Obama on their “cynical” disregard for our nation’s security. A key highlight: “The President talked about accountability in his speech. It is true – more accountability is needed, and that starts with the federal government’s | Read More »
Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot
(H/T to Liberty Central) So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide. But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?
Fisher leads Portman despite Ohio rejecting the PPACA
We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling. The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.
California Proposition 19: The next stand for federalism?
California’s going to have a busy ballot in November. In addition to voting for Governor, Senator, and more statewide offices than you can shake a stick at, we’re going to have a long list of initiative statutes and constitutional amendments to deal with. One of the more interesting ones is numbered 19. Proposition 19, the Regulate, Control, and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010, if passed | Read More »
Kansas Senate: Moran up big, Democrats split
SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out. We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.
, Charles Schollenberger
, David Haley
, Jerry Moran
, Lisa Johnston
, Robert Conroy
, Todd Tiahrt
Simulating the latest Cook House ratings
On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.
Rossi Ties Murray
It’s the weekend, so I will be brief, but I saw this poll and thought I’d mention it: After so many polls showing him competitive or even close, Dino Rossi has registered a tie with Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race.
Wal-mart Moms: This year’s catch phrase?
Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.” But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?
Neck and Neck in New Mexico
Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years. But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.
Landmark shift in the Gallup enthusiasm readings
National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006. Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.