We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on. Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.
InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich. NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.
Rick Santorum. Now? Seriously? This is ridiculous. How are prognosticators supposed to do our jobs if we get a break so late it makes Mike Huckabee look like an early frontrunner? Seriously, Iowa, simmer down now. All I know is Ron Paul isn’t winning. Beyond that, anything’s possible.
Remember 2004? Insurgent Democrat Howard Dean uses a rash of young people online to raise surprising sums of money and gather incredible “buzz” for his candidacy. And yet he drops to third in Iowa, then second in New Hampshire. He would not go on to California, and Texas, and New York, nor would he take the White House. Now between the PPP poll I covered | Read More »
I’ve been telling people PPP’s polling Iowa was making nonsense predictions. The pollster has doubled down. I’m going way out on a limb here, and if the actual results refudiate what I’m saying then I’m going to have to take some taunting, but I just don’t see how this poll remotely reflects reality, and I’m flatly saying it’s not predictive of the caucus results.
Once Newt Gingrich finally gained some genuine attention after months of praise of his debate performances, the Republican presidential race became a mess. We didn’t know who was leading. It could have been Gingrich, Mitt Romney, or Herman Cain. For now though it’s settled: Newt Gingrich leads. And as I’ve said in the past, watch his favorability ratings to know whether it’ll last.
Chaos: Mathematically, we see it when small changes to the inputs of a function produce large, wild changes to the outputs. I believe we’re seeing that now in the GOP primary race, as a weakened Herman Cain and a strengthened Newt Gingrich, combined with a steady Mitt Romney and a resilient Rick Perry, turn it into a four cornered brawl.
A couple of debates ago we looked at where the Republican Presidential primary stood nationally. Since then we’ve seen Mitt Romney surge, presumably as the anti-Rick Perry candidate. But will Perry himself tumble after widely criticized debate efforts? Let’s check the new CNN poll.
Last night CNN hosted a key Republican Presidential debate, in which Rick Perry took a variety of attacks. This is critical because going into Rick Perry’s first debate, his favorability ratings were great, and his unfavorables were miniscule compared with the field. Let’s see where CNN had the state of the race going into last night.
Now that Nate Silver has declared PPP to have a Republican house effect, all eyes turn to CNN to see what kind of house effect they must have. Has the whole polling world gone Republican? Why does CNN get the results it does? Jon Ralston and Ed Morrissey have questions.
By request, I’ve decided to take a look at just what kind of electorate the Public Policy Polling screening of Likely Voters seems to be predicting. To do this I will use recent PPP polls from two states: California, which went for Barack Obama heavily, and West Virginia, where Obama’s popularity has never been that hot.
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder. But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
I still have the Washington Senate race as one of the four closest, despite Republican Dino Rossi taking a decent lead over Democrat Patty Murray in recent polling. This is why: both candidates have been capable of rattling off good polls, and one new result at any time can come out in favor of either candidate.
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »
Wisconsin is traditionally the most Progressive state in America. Progressives win there. Progressives have long won there. Progressives have won there even in years when they lost in much of America. Wisconsin even went in for the La Follette-founded Progressive Party, making it a highly successful third party within the state for about a decade. So I’m just at a loss for words as to | Read More »
I am at a loss as to how to analyze the polling of the race for Governor in Florida. Of the last four polls at Real Clear Politics, Republican Rick Scott leads according to Rasmussen Reports and Ipsos for Reuters, while Democrat Alex Sink leads acccording to Mason Dixon and CNN/Time. Two polls concluded on the same day (Rasmussen and Mason Dixon) are not supposed | Read More »
The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
Based on data conveniently aggregated for me by resident poll addict Adam C, I would now like to try to make sense of the recent national polling of the Presidential election, excluding tracking polls which are more useful for measuring movement than status. The polls included in my survey are as follows: NOTA: None of the Above. LV: Likely Voters. RV: Registered Voters. Poll Date | Read More »
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