Simulating the major House ratings

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 24th at 09:18 PM  | 

As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s. Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, | Read More »

Incumbency Matters: The Joseph Cao story

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 14th at 11:30 AM  | 

Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer. By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why | Read More »