Economics projects a 94 EV defeat for Barack Obama

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 3rd at 05:30 PM  | 

Over at the American Enterprise Institute, James Pethokoukis modeled the economy and the effect of the economy on the 2012 elections. He calculated what unemployment would look like under 28 different scenarios, varying both job and labor force growth rates to cover the range of possibilities, ad the results look bad if there’s any sort of return to the previous trend, should job growth rates | Read More »

Harry Reid’s challengers crossing 50%

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  April 5th at 08:25 PM  | 

Rasmussen Reports has a new Nevada Senate poll out, and the results are looking terrible for Harry Reid. The Democrat is looking likely to be the second consecutive incumbent floor leader for his party to be voted out of office. Conventional wisdom says incumbents below 50 are vulnerable. Well, two of the three Republicans running to replace him are now above 50, and the third | Read More »

Barbara Boxer is in the Fight of her Political Life

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 18th at 05:59 PM  | 

On the heels of a Rasmussen poll suggesting Democrats should worry about Senator Barbara Boxer’s re-election chances, comes worse news from Field for the three term incumbent. The raw numbers: Campbell 44/Boxer 43, Fiorina 44/Boxer 45, DeVore 41/Boxer 45, 3.7% Margin of Error. My model’s win percentages: DeVore 29% , Fiorina 44%, and Campbell 55%.

Democrats running scared in California (DOOM!)

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 17th at 09:25 PM  | 

One point I initially missed in my previous article on the California Senate race (Cross-posted to RedState), and only later pointed out on Twitter, was that the Democrats should be scared to death about the current polling of Babs Boxer versus the Republicans. Our worst result against her right now gives us a one in four chance to win. One in four sounds poor, but | Read More »