Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November. Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.
Newt Gingrich has now led eleven national straight polls, counting just the latest Gallup tracking, and now covering a span of four weeks. He’s been ahead a month. That’s already four times longer than Herman Cain ever led, and getting close to the span of Rick Perry’s lead, which lasted about five weeks. But is there any sign of weakness?
Candidates for office aren’t always well known at first. This difference in name recognition can distort early polling, which is why in this Republican Presidential primary race I keep watching approval ratings for clues. So my personal find today of Gallup’s Positive Intensity Score tracker I think is worth a look, especially as we consider whether Newt Gingrich’s lead is here to stay.
We went 10 days without a poll in the field, and then after that, we went another 5 days of no news. That’s nerve wracking when the last poll was so radically different from the past. But fortunately the new Gallup is in, and it tracks very well with the Rasmussen poll. In fact if we pretend there’s no randomness, the poll lends itself perfectly | Read More »
Once Newt Gingrich finally gained some genuine attention after months of praise of his debate performances, the Republican presidential race became a mess. We didn’t know who was leading. It could have been Gingrich, Mitt Romney, or Herman Cain. For now though it’s settled: Newt Gingrich leads. And as I’ve said in the past, watch his favorability ratings to know whether it’ll last.
R-E-B-O-U-N-D-I-N-G. First came Cain, then came Politico, then came USA Today/Gallup and NBC News/Wall Street Journal with the latest numbers. This also make three straight post-scandal polls that have shown Cain to have re-lost his lead over Romney.
With a new debate coming, now’s a great time to check the latest national polling. Of course, individual states matter, but this early the national polling is critical for gauging how well the candidates will be able to stay in the race. To summarize, we’ve seen no changes since Herman Cain surged just ahead of Rick Perry. Mitt Romney still leads.
The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from. Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.
I mentioned recently that broader polling pools favor Democrats, so when a big new poll of adults comes out from Gallup that shows Barack Obama to be in trouble, I take notice.
Just a week ago, the big story from Gallup was that the Republicans had hit an all-time high lead in their poll. I covered it despite questioning the poll in the past. Everyone covered it. But now, suddenly, in the Gallup poll the race is even? How can that be, and what does it mean?
I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »
The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »
[6PM ET update after 12PM ET original post at the bottom of this post] The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to. How? Gallup is combining | Read More »
Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude. This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.
National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006. Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years. Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March. Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.
Based on data conveniently aggregated for me by resident poll addict Adam C, I would now like to try to make sense of the recent national polling of the Presidential election, excluding tracking polls which are more useful for measuring movement than status. The polls included in my survey are as follows: NOTA: None of the Above. LV: Likely Voters. RV: Registered Voters. Poll Date | Read More »
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