So Newsweek put out a new Generic Ballot. The magazine’s polling had drawn notice before in my House projection reports (this week’s edition coming later today), but this new one just seems completely out of line: Democrats +5 among Registered Voters. That filtering is expected to lean to the left after the 2008 anomaly, but this is ridiculous.
Just a week ago, the big story from Gallup was that the Republicans had hit an all-time high lead in their poll. I covered it despite questioning the poll in the past. Everyone covered it. But now, suddenly, in the Gallup poll the race is even? How can that be, and what does it mean?
I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »
The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues. I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
[6PM ET update after 12PM ET original post at the bottom of this post] The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to. How? Gallup is combining | Read More »
Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude. This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.
Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.
Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years. Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.
The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March. Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.
![[RS]](/t/img/logo-footer.jpg){kind=logo}