By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 8th at 07:01 PM  | 

I made a video.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 11th at 11:00 AM  | 

Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried. Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 6th at 08:00 PM  | 

Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 1st at 04:00 PM  | 

Scientific polling, based on the laws of probability and the compounding of likelihoods, is a mathematical activity. It’s all about the numbers. Without the numbers no poll has meaning. That’s why I highlight key facts like Margins of Error. Your typical internal poll release is very low on numbers and instead is a one page memo. Those releases can be based on sound polling practices, | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 28th at 01:30 PM  | 

Any political party must work as a team to win. While the primary process will become at times a competitive and even divisive, any inability to set those feelings aside and back the nominee will give the party trouble. A few Republicans this cycle know what kind of trouble that is, but none has more than Dan Maes against Democrat John Hickenlooper for Colorado Governor. | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 27th at 01:30 PM  | 

This new poll of the California races by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for USC and the LA Times has been discussed from one side of the Internet to the other, and back again. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I let it go without chiming in, now would I? Of course not. So let’s dig in.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 24th at 07:00 PM  | 

I am at a loss as to how to analyze the polling of the race for Governor in Florida. Of the last four polls at Real Clear Politics, Republican Rick Scott leads according to Rasmussen Reports and Ipsos for Reuters, while Democrat Alex Sink leads acccording to Mason Dixon and CNN/Time. Two polls concluded on the same day (Rasmussen and Mason Dixon) are not supposed | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 22nd at 03:30 PM  | 

Being just one man trying to cover 435 House races, 37 Senate races, a few dozen more states electing Governors, plus some of the technical and mathematical aspects of polling, I tend not to post on races that aren’t competitive. So it’s surprising to me that I now have not one, but two New York polls to discuss today: Quinnipiac on the Governor’s race and | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 21st at 06:00 PM  | 

Along with West Virginia, Wisconsin I wanted to see more polling in. Rasmussen Reports has been the lone voice up there polling again and again, showing these key races competitive while the rest of the polling world passed on by. PPP went there for Daily Kos finally, and now we get that critical second opinion on the races to see if they are as competitive | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 20th at 12:30 PM  | 

Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling have hinted on Twitter that they have a new Wisconsin poll coming, which I am glad of because I’ve long wanted to see a second opinion in that state, but I’d like to start the week by hitting a pair of polls I missed while I was in Austin over the weekend: Rasmussen Reports on the Wisconsin Senate race | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 16th at 03:00 PM  | 

Candidates matter. Even in a wave year, some candidates on the losing side will have no trouble. Dianne Feinstein was an example of that in 1994, and Democrat Ron Wyden appears to be one in 2010, as he is comfortable over Republican Jim Huffman in the latest SurveyUSA poll even as that poll and the Riley poll both have Republican Chris Dudley highly competitive for | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 31st at 04:00 PM  | 

It seems like most of the third party and independent spoilers this year are harming Democrats, but the Constitution Party’s Tom Tancredo is clearly hurting Republican Dan Maes in the Colorado Governor’s race, currently throwing the lead to Democrat John Hickenlooper. But two new polls on that race, from Magellan Strategies via Real Clear Politics and Rasmussen Reports are so different that I think we | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 30th at 08:00 AM  | 

There was a time when I thought about Nikki Haley’s campaign for governor every day. I’d scramble to find whatever polling I could get my hands on and read the news to try to explain any trends I might be seeing in the polls. Now, though, the South Carolina Governor’s race joins that of Republican Brian Sandoval’s in Nevada as non-competitive barring a major event | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 26th at 02:00 PM  | 

Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina. I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 23rd at 01:00 PM  | 

Despite a rash of independents and party switches in Florida, tomorrow there are still two meaningful primaries at the top of the ticket. For the Democrats, tomorrow they choose between Bill Clinton-backed Kendrick Meek, and wealthy challenger Jeff Greene for a Senate candidate. Republicans have to decide on a candidate for Governor between former Impeachment star Bill McCollum and wealthy challenger Rick Scott. With one | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 19th at 01:30 PM  | 

Tired of Florida yet? Too bad! Just about every public pollster is hitting the state comprehensively, so like a hanging chad this race will stick around at least until next week. And after Quinnipiac yesterday went contrarian on the primaries, today the firm goes contrarian on the general.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 18th at 05:00 PM  | 

Both Bill McCollum and Kendrick Meek have struck back against their respective challengers Rick Scott and Jeff Greene. Meek has campaigned hard with Bill Clinton, while McCollum has done different things depending on whom you ask. Regardless though, Quinnipiac shows both candidates on top as the Florida primary nears.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 18th at 04:30 PM  | 

Good afternoon. My life gets much easier when polls agree, and that’s the state of the race for the Senate in Pennsylvania. We have two polls out directly comparing Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, as well as a poll on the Governor’s race. All three favor Pat Toomey by a healthy margin.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 13th at 10:30 AM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: SurveyUSA polled the California statewide races for San Francisco’s KPIX, a television station for one of the most safe cities in the state for Democrats. This is Nancy Pelosi’s own district here. Any bias introduced into this poll won’t be from the right. So it’s notable when this poll shows Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman ahead of Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen. But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as | Read More »