From Unlikely Voter: Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up. So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.
From Unlikely Voter: Mason Dixon polled the Georgia Republican primary for Governor for the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, to see who might face Roy Barnes in November. With the runoff tomorrow, it’s looking good for Karen Handel as she leads Nathan Deal, despite the problems we’ve seen with primary polling this year.
From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too. Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul | Read More »
From Unlikely voter: Florida is a large and aggressively contested state. It, of all states, demands the clarity of traditional horserace polling. We have been denied that opportunity yet, though, because the Republicans still need a candidate for Governor and the Democrats still need a candidate for Senate. Quinnpiac’s poll suggests we may get answers soon, as late entering political novices Rick Scott and Jeff | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon. Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.
From UnlikelyVoter: Tennessee is the state that most moved away from the Democrats in 2008 at the national level. Barack Obama ran worse there against John McCain than John Kerry did against George Bush. The Republican trend there seems to continue as Mason-Dixon’s poll of the Governor’s race there for The Tennessean shows every Republican on top.
As we cross past midnight in Georgia, it becomes primary election day in that state. So let’s look at one more poll of the Republican side of the Governor’s race. There’s almost certainly going to be a primary runoff, but with three credible candidates and two spots, somebody’s going to be left out when the music stops. According to Mason Dixon the one left out | Read More »
Once again, it looks like endorsements are driving a primary. John Oxendine had taken to the air in Georgia and regained a decent lead (or as decent as you’ll get in a huge multi-way affair*), but now that Newt Gingrich endorsed Nathan Deal and Sarah Palin endorsed Karen Handel, the Ox is back in third.
Before the primary, for a while when Meg Whitman was campaigning and Jerry Brown did not have to, Whitman took a lead in the race for Governor in California. It didn’t last, but the latest Field Poll is good news for her, and not just because it shows her with only a one point deficit.
John Oxendine has long held the lead on the Republican side of the Georgia primary for Governor, but if InsiderAdvantage’s poll for WSB is accurate, that has changed. It’s tied says this poll, and Karen Handel made it one.
In sports there’s an old saying that I like to quote: “It’s not a rivalry until both sides win.” I’m thinking it’d be wise to extend that to political polling, and say that a race isn’t truly close until both sides have led. In that case, the Maryland Governor’s race is truly close now.
Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years. But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.
Roy Barnes seems to have his party’s nomination sewn up for Governor of Georgia, but the Republicans have seven names on the ballot, with three over double figures. SurveyUSA took a look. Barnes is well over 50 for the Democrats, but a runoff appears certain for the Republicans. The only question is which two will make it?
I know many of my readers are interested in the race for Governor in Texas, so let’s check in on Rasmussen’s latest on that race.
SurveyUSA polled the Oregon race for Governor and interesting enough, has it as a three way race. Featured are Republican Chris Dudley (6’11″ center out of Yale), Democrat John Kitzhaber, and Progressive Jerry Wilson. By the name of the third party I think we all know what’s going to happen.
The last time we looked in on Maryland, former governor and Republican Bob Ehrlich had taken his 7 point loss to incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley, and narrowed the deficit to 6 and then to 3 in the polls. Now it’s all tied up.
I know some pollsters have rushed out to take a look at the primary states immediately after Tuesday’s elections, but we all know that those polls tend to have varying unity bounces. Rick Perry’s took a while in fact. So I’ll let those races simmer a bit and instead look at Illinois today, as Rasmussen polled the Governor and Senate races.
With 17% reporting: Yes, friends, we can rejoice that Orly Taitz, exalted birtherlord, is being rejected tonight, losing in the Secretary of State primary 75-25 to Damon Dunn. Meg Whitman runs away in the Governor’s race 65-26. Schwarzeneggerite Abel Maldonaldo gets the drop on conservative favorite Sam Aanestad 46-28 for LtGov. Boxer crushes Kaus 78-6. Fiorina completes her surge to be up with 57 over | Read More »
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