Has Brad Carson fallen behind in Oklahoma?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 14th at 06:00 PM  | 

By request, we look at a 2012 House race today. PPP polled Oklahoma’s second district for the Friends of Brad Carson. Carson, a Democrat, of course won this seat previously in 2000 and 2002, giving it up in 2004 in a failed Senate run. Dan Boren, also a Democrat, won the seat in 2004 and has held it ever since. Boren is retiring, so Carson | Read More »

The Democrats did not have to lose this year

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  November 2nd at 01:30 PM  | 

Some will try to minimize the importance of any Republican gains tonight by saying the Democrats were bound to lose. Some will even say Democrats had a baked-in loss of 45 or more seats, which implies they had no hope of keeping the House at all, no matter what policy aims they worked to implement. The problem is, that’s nonsense. Cutting to the chase: while | Read More »

SD-AL and my dignity at risk

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 22nd at 03:30 PM  | 

I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling. I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, | Read More »

Tech at Night: Fox, Cablevision, Net Neutrality, Olympia Snowe, Carly Fiorina, DARPA Starships

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 20th at 11:30 PM  | 

Good evening. I’m starting on tonight’s Tech at Night earlier than usual. That’s because I have much to cover. Sometimes a whole bunch of interesting stories just pop up all at once, and I don’t want to leave any out. So let’s hurry up and start. For all the way the far left is flipping out over the Fox/Cablevision dispute – in which Cablevision refuses | Read More »

Yes, we can beat Loretta Sanchez

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 19th at 02:39 AM  | 

It’s late but this is worth noting. I’ve discussed before just how fraudulently Loretta Sanchez was able to get into the House, and how terrible it was that Republicans gave up and seated her without a real fight. But now’s our chance to fight. Internal polling suggests it’s a real race in CA-47, and Van Tran has a new ad, too. We failed to fight | Read More »

Feeding the hunger for House polling, continued

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 13th at 02:00 PM  | 

We now enter week two of The Hill’s series of district by district polls in pre-selected close races. Week one had some good results for Republicans and week two seems to say much of the same.

Feeding the hunger for House polling

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 6th at 11:00 AM  | 

I’ve given up on polling of individual House districts. Even if we see more than one poll of a given race, it’s usually all from the same pollster for the same client, a local newspaper or media alliance. These polls are erratic and without multiple sources to verify the figures, it’s hard to draw value from them. So even though I’ll stick with the wide | Read More »

Loretta Sanchez doubles down on racism

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 21st at 02:00 PM  | 

It’s clear that these lefty writers are no friends of law, order, and American values, given their clear amusement at the widely known fact that Loretta Sanchez stole her first election against Bob Dornan. The spirit of their use of “Trannies” as a way to mock Van Tran‘s supporters should be noticed, as well. Ah, the tolerant left. They respect the LGBT community alright, but | Read More »

Nick Popaditch for Congress

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 11th at 10:13 AM  | 

Nick Popaditch is running for Congress. Previous occupation? Gunnery Sergeant, USMC. That patch he wears? Not preparing for Talk like a Pirate day, but rather a wound at Fallujah. His district? California’s 51st. Oh yes, that district. Inland California tends to be right-leaning, but Imperial County is one big exception. It’s a poor expanse of desert along the Mexican border stretching from Arizona to San | Read More »

Oh Gallup, what is wrong now?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 8th at 06:00 PM  | 

Just a week ago, the big story from Gallup was that the Republicans had hit an all-time high lead in their poll. I covered it despite questioning the poll in the past. Everyone covered it. But now, suddenly, in the Gallup poll the race is even? How can that be, and what does it mean?

Van Tran for Congress

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 6th at 03:30 PM  | 

California’s 47th Congressional District isn’t one of the ones getting national attention this year, but it should be. Loretta Sanchez may not be one of the most hated Democrats in Washington, but the circumstances surrounding her initial electoral “victory” are so shady that she has no business being there. She’s been kept in office thanks to California’s lockdown gerrymandering, but somehow her seat is still | Read More »

Gallup: Generic ballot shows record Republican lead

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 30th at 05:30 PM  | 

I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »

Simulating the major House ratings

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 24th at 09:18 PM  | 

As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s. Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, | Read More »

Swingometer Update

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 24th at 07:00 AM  | 

The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.

I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s finished

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 6th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.

Gallup retreats and I claim victory

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 3rd at 12:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »

Fox News meets the Swingometer

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 30th at 12:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues. I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.

Dueling polls in New Mexico

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 27th at 03:30 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Much like New Hampshire I’ve covered previously, New Mexico was the site of big wins for Democrats in recent years, wiping out the Republican Party. But now a SurveyUSA poll for KOB of the first Congressional District has Democrat Martin Heinrich so worried, he’s put out an internal poll in response.

Pomeroy’s not finished yet

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 27th at 03:30 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race. We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.

Cook updates on the House

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 23rd at 04:00 PM  | 

A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored: Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are | Read More »