Has Brad Carson fallen behind in Oklahoma?
By request, we look at a 2012 House race today. PPP polled Oklahoma’s second district for the Friends of Brad Carson. Carson, a Democrat, of course won this seat previously in 2000 and 2002, giving it up in 2004 in a failed Senate run. Dan Boren, also a Democrat, won the seat in 2004 and has held it ever since. Boren is retiring, so Carson | Read More »
The Democrats did not have to lose this year
Some will try to minimize the importance of any Republican gains tonight by saying the Democrats were bound to lose. Some will even say Democrats had a baked-in loss of 45 or more seats, which implies they had no hope of keeping the House at all, no matter what policy aims they worked to implement. The problem is, that’s nonsense. Cutting to the chase: while | Read More »
SD-AL and my dignity at risk
I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling. I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, | Read More »
Tech at Night: Fox, Cablevision, Net Neutrality, Olympia Snowe, Carly Fiorina, DARPA Starships
Good evening. I’m starting on tonight’s Tech at Night earlier than usual. That’s because I have much to cover. Sometimes a whole bunch of interesting stories just pop up all at once, and I don’t want to leave any out. So let’s hurry up and start. For all the way the far left is flipping out over the Fox/Cablevision dispute – in which Cablevision refuses | Read More »
, Carly Fiorina
, Net Neutrality
, Olympia Snowe
, Seton Motley
, Space Travel
, Tech at Night
, Title II Reclassification
, Toby Dials
Yes, we can beat Loretta Sanchez
It’s late but this is worth noting. I’ve discussed before just how fraudulently Loretta Sanchez was able to get into the House, and how terrible it was that Republicans gave up and seated her without a real fight. But now’s our chance to fight. Internal polling suggests it’s a real race in CA-47, and Van Tran has a new ad, too. We failed to fight | Read More »
Feeding the hunger for House polling, continued
We now enter week two of The Hill’s series of district by district polls in pre-selected close races. Week one had some good results for Republicans and week two seems to say much of the same.
Feeding the hunger for House polling
I’ve given up on polling of individual House districts. Even if we see more than one poll of a given race, it’s usually all from the same pollster for the same client, a local newspaper or media alliance. These polls are erratic and without multiple sources to verify the figures, it’s hard to draw value from them. So even though I’ll stick with the wide | Read More »
Loretta Sanchez doubles down on racism
It’s clear that these lefty writers are no friends of law, order, and American values, given their clear amusement at the widely known fact that Loretta Sanchez stole her first election against Bob Dornan. The spirit of their use of “Trannies” as a way to mock Van Tran‘s supporters should be noticed, as well. Ah, the tolerant left. They respect the LGBT community alright, but | Read More »
, illegal immigration
, La Raza
, Loretta Sanchez
, OC Weekly
, Van Tran
, Voter Fraud
Nick Popaditch for Congress
Nick Popaditch is running for Congress. Previous occupation? Gunnery Sergeant, USMC. That patch he wears? Not preparing for Talk like a Pirate day, but rather a wound at Fallujah. His district? California’s 51st. Oh yes, that district. Inland California tends to be right-leaning, but Imperial County is one big exception. It’s a poor expanse of desert along the Mexican border stretching from Arizona to San | Read More »
Oh Gallup, what is wrong now?
Just a week ago, the big story from Gallup was that the Republicans had hit an all-time high lead in their poll. I covered it despite questioning the poll in the past. Everyone covered it. But now, suddenly, in the Gallup poll the race is even? How can that be, and what does it mean?
Van Tran for Congress
California’s 47th Congressional District isn’t one of the ones getting national attention this year, but it should be. Loretta Sanchez may not be one of the most hated Democrats in Washington, but the circumstances surrounding her initial electoral “victory” are so shady that she has no business being there. She’s been kept in office thanks to California’s lockdown gerrymandering, but somehow her seat is still | Read More »
Gallup: Generic ballot shows record Republican lead
I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »
Simulating the major House ratings
As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s. Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, | Read More »
The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately. As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
, Associated Press
, Fox News
, Generic Ballot
, Likely Voters
, Opinion Research
, Public Policy Polling
, Rasmussen Reports
, Registered Voters
I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s finished
From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.
, Dennis Daugaard
, John Thune
, Kristi Noem
, Rasmussen Reports
, Scott Heidepreim
, South Dakota
, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
Gallup retreats and I claim victory
From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »
Fox News meets the Swingometer
From Unlikely Voter: Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues. I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
Dueling polls in New Mexico
From Unlikely Voter: Much like New Hampshire I’ve covered previously, New Mexico was the site of big wins for Democrats in recent years, wiping out the Republican Party. But now a SurveyUSA poll for KOB of the first Congressional District has Democrat Martin Heinrich so worried, he’s put out an internal poll in response.
Pomeroy’s not finished yet
From Unlikely Voter: Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race. We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.
Cook updates on the House
A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored: Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are | Read More »