Some will try to minimize the importance of any Republican gains tonight by saying the Democrats were bound to lose. Some will even say Democrats had a baked-in loss of 45 or more seats, which implies they had no hope of keeping the House at all, no matter what policy aims they worked to implement. The problem is, that’s nonsense. Cutting to the chase: while | Read More »
By request, I’ve decided to take a look at just what kind of electorate the Public Policy Polling screening of Likely Voters seems to be predicting. To do this I will use recent PPP polls from two states: California, which went for Barack Obama heavily, and West Virginia, where Obama’s popularity has never been that hot.
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder. But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each: Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West | Read More »
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »
Some states get seven or eight polls of their Senate races. West Virginia has had two: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. And honestly it seems that we were lucky to get PPP to jump in there. But now that Rasmussen’s latest is out, it’s official: Republican John Raese leads all the current polling over Democrat Joe Manchin.
I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race. And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.
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