Silver reverses course, attacks Rasmussen anyway
The New York Times’ Nate Silver is now going after Rasmussen Reports again. After the primaries he said Rasmussen was in his crosshairs for ducking out on a number of races by not polling primaries. According to Silver’s own chart though, Rasmussen polled twice as often as the second place firm, and is still Silver’s primary target. Funny that.
The Times’s Nate Silver Punishing Pollsters?
So 538 moved to the New York Times this morning and in the process made Marco Rubio the favorite finally. But seriously, my issue with Nate Silver today comes from the old site and specifically, his primary night commentary.
The Rasmussen Secret Sauce: Pennsylvania Governor Edition
Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees. I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the | Read More »
, Dan Onorato
, Likely Voters
, Nate Silver
, Quinnipiac University
, Rasmussen Reports
, Secret Sauce
, TEA party
, Tom Corbett
Science in action: The Veronique de Rugy story
So Veronique de Rugy put out a paper entitled Stimulus Facts. In it, she ran a regression of the money spent by Obama’s “stimulus” package recently, to see if it was actually being spent where unemployment is highest. It turns out it’s not, and most important factor she found in determining where money was spent, was whether the area was represented by a Republican or | Read More »
Nate Silver pretends to forget how polling works
The last time we checked in on Nate Silver, the top-flight baseball analyst turned bottom-feeding partisan shill (appropriate for a guy who started out in politics as a Daily Kos diarist) was launching a crusade against Strategic Vision so lacking in integrity or even basic mathematical sense that it left many of us wondering whose payroll he’s on. The sad part is, though, that his | Read More »
Nate Silver becomes the Joe Morgan of Politics
Nate Silver once was a respected mathematical analyst. His baseball-related work, such as that at Baseball Prospectus and on PECOTA, showed that he has the ability to make solid, reasoned arguments using mathematical tools. But now, he’s flushed his own reputation into the toilet with his campaign against Strategic Vision. The pretend math, and lack of serious analysis and justification, in his series of posts | Read More »