I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses. Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
Three quick polls of New Hampshire came out this week to try to measure the effect of Iowa on New Hampshire. Predictably, the top three of Iowa are now the top three in New Hampshire. This matters most to the one candidate that put nothing into Iowa and everything into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman.
Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November. Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.
The New Hampshire Union Leader having endorsed Newt Gingrich in the Republican Presidential primary, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how often the paper’s endorsed candidates actually go on to win the primary.
Last time around, Mitt Romney took a blow when he took ‘silver’ in his neighboring state New Hampshire, losing to the man who’d been plotting to win the state since the last contested primary there, John McCain. This time it looks like Romney is going to repeat the McCain strategy. By never having given up on the state since November 2008, Romney looks set to | Read More »
If I’m going to break my rule and talk about Delaware right away, then I might as well do the same and cover the new Rasmussen poll on New Hampshire, which is the first post-primary poll of that Senate race between Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes. For a while there it wasn’t sure we’d get this matchup after all, but here we | Read More »
If this isn’t the most exciting and competitive year for Republican primaries of all time, it has to be close. Ovide Lamontagne had faded far behind Kelly Ayotte in the New Hampshire Senate primary, but he’s been making a comeback. And now Public Policy Polling has him truly competitive. And to think he looked like spoiler bait once upon a time!
New Hampshire apparently tries to hard in Presidential years to have its primaries first, that it tires and has to have its Senate primaries last. So we’re still on primary watch for that state, and it looks like the Republican race has shifted again. Kelly Ayotte still leads the primary race to decide Democrat Paul Hodes’s opponent, but it appears the race for second is | Read More »
From Unlikely Voter: In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll. Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.
From Unlikely Voter: The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll. I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.
At RedState we’ve hammered for a long time the idea that your local politics matter. We also give plenty of attention to federal elections for the House, the Senate, and of course the President. But governors matter, too. The next governor of South Carolina will affect us all. As will Georgia’s, Ohio’s, and Oregon’s. It doesn’t matter where you live. These Governors, as well as | Read More »
We’ve already seen that Republicans are in fair shape in the New Hampshire Senate race, but it appears that the state could also return to its historical norm of sending Republicans to the House, according to the latest from PPP.
If the Democrats want to regain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate they have to win seats in their home turf, and that includes the New Hampshire seat of retiring Senator and Republican Judd Gregg. Rasmussen carpet bombed this race, which fortunately only has three likely matchups.
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