By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 6th at 08:00 PM  | 

Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 1st at 04:00 PM  | 

Scientific polling, based on the laws of probability and the compounding of likelihoods, is a mathematical activity. It’s all about the numbers. Without the numbers no poll has meaning. That’s why I highlight key facts like Margins of Error. Your typical internal poll release is very low on numbers and instead is a one page memo. Those releases can be based on sound polling practices, | Read More »

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 17th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: I theorized before that Pat Quinn would drag down Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, with a rout for Governor having reverse coattails for Senate, and now Public Policy Polling seems to show the effects I predicted. A bad candidate for governor in a negative wave year is a terrible situation for a party to have, but that’s the Democrats in Illinois today.

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 12th at 02:00 PM  | 

From Unlikely Voter: The Illinois Senate race is already set to be an ugly war, only distinguished from France 1916 by the lack of chemical warfare. Both candidates are hated and have baggage that is not going to go away. Either one can win, though, judging by the polling I’ve seen. But if Republicans rally around a surging Bill Brady while Pat Quinn polls as | Read More »