Pomeroy’s not finished yet
From Unlikely Voter: Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race. We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.
Florida Senate Update
We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP. Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.
More good news for Rob Portman
Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6. I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!
Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge
Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude. This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.
Getting a Handel on why endorsements are a big Deal
Once again, it looks like endorsements are driving a primary. John Oxendine had taken to the air in Georgia and regained a decent lead (or as decent as you’ll get in a huge multi-way affair*), but now that Newt Gingrich endorsed Nathan Deal and Sarah Palin endorsed Karen Handel, the Ox is back in third.
, Eric Johnson
, John Oxendine
, Karen Handel
, Nathan Deal
, Newt Gingrich
, Rasmussen Reports
, Sarah Palin
Is Rasmussen biased toward the Republicans? Not in California.
Certain critics either say or imply that Rasmussen Reports is skewed toward Republicans, just because this cycle he predicted early that the 2010 electorate would look nothing like that of 2008. But that’s not the same as having a partisan bias, and in fact, comparing the latest Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race with SurveyUSA hints there is no such partisan bias to be | Read More »
Swinging the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
Speaking of the Swingometer, let’s see what it says about Rasmussen’s latest Generic Congressional Ballot released on the 11th.
Rubio battles back
For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it. I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.
What is going on in Kentucky?
With the help of the Real Clear Politics, here are the last few polls of the Kentucky Senate race. PPP: Randal Paul +1. RR: Paul +25. SUSA: Paul +6. RR: Paul +8, Paul +7. And now we have PPP: Tie. Why is PPP running so much further toward Jack Conway than the other two pollsters?
Rossi Ties Murray
It’s the weekend, so I will be brief, but I saw this poll and thought I’d mention it: After so many polls showing him competitive or even close, Dino Rossi has registered a tie with Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race.
A surprise turn in Wisconsin
Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway. But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.
Boxer showing rare vulnerability for a California Democrat
I always hesitate to analyze the California Senate polling because I have strong feelings about it. I live here. I was engaged in the primary. But this is key to determining how big of a wave, if any, Republicans see in the Senate, so I must try. I’ve given enough time for both parties to settle down after the primaries, so here’s Rasmussen’s latest. Boxer | Read More »
Checking in on Texas
I know many of my readers are interested in the race for Governor in Texas, so let’s check in on Rasmussen’s latest on that race.
A tie in Maryland
The last time we looked in on Maryland, former governor and Republican Bob Ehrlich had taken his 7 point loss to incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley, and narrowed the deficit to 6 and then to 3 in the polls. Now it’s all tied up.
Challenger crosses 50 in South Dakota House Race
South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.
I know some pollsters have rushed out to take a look at the primary states immediately after Tuesday’s elections, but we all know that those polls tend to have varying unity bounces. Rick Perry’s took a while in fact. So I’ll let those races simmer a bit and instead look at Illinois today, as Rasmussen polled the Governor and Senate races.
Swingometer on the Rasmussen Generic Ballot
Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.
, Barack Obama
, Bill Clinton
, Franklin Roosevelt
, Generic Ballot
, Harry Truman
, Midterm Elections
, Rasmussen Reports
Quick Hit: Oregon Governor
Good evening. Yes this is a late post and I apologize, but Here’s the latest Rasmussen on the Oregon Governor’s race.
The Rasmussen Secret Sauce: Pennsylvania Governor Edition
Are we tired of Pennsylvania yet? Of course not! Specifically we now check in on the Governor’s race. Rasmussen has released the first poll since the primary, but I will compare that with the last pre-primary Quinnipiac poll anyway. Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato were obvious likely nominees. I believe we have as much to learn about Rasmussen’s distinctive modeling as we do about the | Read More »
, Dan Onorato
, Likely Voters
, Nate Silver
, Quinnipiac University
, Rasmussen Reports
, Secret Sauce
, TEA party
, Tom Corbett
Previously, the story of the race for Governor in Texas that was that Rick Perry was stagnant in the polls and Democrat Bill White was rising. But now, Rasmussen has shown a change. Perry has gone over 50 for the first time, and White has gone back under 40.