Tech at Night: FCC Budget battle ahead, Marketplace Fairness sales tax compact, Boo on Rick Santorum’s censorship

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 17th at 03:30 AM  | 

The FCC may yet get what’s coming to it. It’s been going out of its way to get headlines as it tries to pick winners and losers in industry, but now the attention is coming from the House as the Appropriations Committee will discuss the FCC’s budget. Prepare for hysterical shouting on the order of the SimCity 2000 Transportation advisor if the Republicans threaten to | Read More »

Tuesday night’s story was one of effective campaigning, not personality

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 14th at 12:00 AM  | 

There is a rush tonight to try to identify the true interpretation of the Republican electoral results. Many of them will be shared on the Internet, but this one is mine. This wasn’t the first close race. Mitt Romney has won them previously. What’s different about tonight is that Rick Santorum pulled it off this time, This defied expectations, and went counter to everything I | Read More »

Mitt Romney short but in reach of the majority

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 7th at 11:30 AM  | 

When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority. Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.

Mittmentum moves to Ohio, Gingrich leads Georgia on a true Super Tuesday

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 5th at 11:30 AM  | 

The Republican party has held five primaries this cycle to date: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Mitt Romney won the statewide vote in four of them, including the last three. Super Tuesday tomorrow will shake all that up, of course. But Ohio looks to be one state Romney may come back to win from Rick Santorum.

Primary Day update of Michigan and Arizona

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 28th at 12:00 PM  | 

Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum. I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

Michigan and Arizona Poll Update

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 16th at 03:00 PM  | 

Today’s Twitter talk is focusing on the March 1 debate in Georgia, but the Arizona and Michigan primaries come two days before then. And it’s looking good for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney, even in Michigan, the state that was Romney’s big win last time, and where George Romney was once Governor.

Tech at Night: France fines Google for giving away free maps, FCC reform, Pastrami

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 4th at 01:00 AM  | 

Good news? I had a great Pastrami Burger tonight from a place called The Hat. Seriously: the pastrami itself is great, and I’ll probably go for the Pastrami Dip next time. Bad news? It was a busy evening and now I’m tired. The good news that wins out? Not much to cover tonight, so let’s go. In France it’s illegal to give away free maps. | Read More »

Florida update: Mitt Romney to win by 10

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 30th at 01:00 PM  | 

It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid. Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.

Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 23rd at 11:00 AM  | 

When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed. Rasmussen provided the confirmation.

South Carolina: Huntsman up, but not Romney?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 12th at 01:00 PM  | 

InsiderAdvantage appears to be the first out of the gate in South Carolina after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. As expected, South Carolina is showing movement from New Hampshire, the way New Hampshire and South Carolina showed movement from Iowa. At least, Rick Santorum is down and Jon Huntsman is up. Sticking out though is the lack of any gain for Mitt Romney.

Primary Day in New Hampshire

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 10th at 10:30 AM  | 

I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses. Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

Romney still leading, Huntsman out of the Hunt in New Hampshire?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 6th at 04:30 PM  | 

Three quick polls of New Hampshire came out this week to try to measure the effect of Iowa on New Hampshire. Predictably, the top three of Iowa are now the top three in New Hampshire. This matters most to the one candidate that put nothing into Iowa and everything into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman.

I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 4th at 07:00 AM  | 

According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn’t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night. Not one poll projected Ron Paul to drop to third, and PPP stuck to Paul being in | Read More »

Romney makes a breakthrough

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  December 31st at 08:30 PM  | 

Newt Gingrich had about six weeks at the top or tied, but that run is over. Gallup has shown a slow decline for the Speaker, and now Mitt Romney benefits. He takes his first national lead since early November. Just in time for the actual delegate selection process to begin.

Iowa Poll Update: This news is ridiculous

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  December 29th at 09:30 PM  | 

Rick Santorum. Now? Seriously? This is ridiculous. How are prognosticators supposed to do our jobs if we get a break so late it makes Mike Huckabee look like an early frontrunner? Seriously, Iowa, simmer down now. All I know is Ron Paul isn’t winning. Beyond that, anything’s possible.

Quinnipiac in OH and PA: Romney leads, Perry leads, Santorum flops

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 28th at 12:00 PM  | 

Quinnipiac put out a pair of new polls, focusing on the Republican primary race in Pennsylvania and in Ohio. They have some problems that limit their utility, but I believe they will get much attention today because of their top line results, so it’s time to take a look anyway. Why the attention? Romney bucks the national trend again to lead in both states.

We need real, useful primary polling

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 30th at 08:00 AM  | 

So Fox News put out a new poll of the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. It’s a typical poll in many ways, but Fox’s bit of analysis got me to thinking: Polls like this favor frontrunners and likely skew the race.