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When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority. Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.
It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid. Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.
When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed. Rasmussen provided the confirmation.
InsiderAdvantage appears to be the first out of the gate in South Carolina after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. As expected, South Carolina is showing movement from New Hampshire, the way New Hampshire and South Carolina showed movement from Iowa. At least, Rick Santorum is down and Jon Huntsman is up. Sticking out though is the lack of any gain for Mitt Romney.
I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses. Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
Three quick polls of New Hampshire came out this week to try to measure the effect of Iowa on New Hampshire. Predictably, the top three of Iowa are now the top three in New Hampshire. This matters most to the one candidate that put nothing into Iowa and everything into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman.
According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn’t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night. Not one poll projected Ron Paul to drop to third, and PPP stuck to Paul being in | Read More »
Rick Santorum. Now? Seriously? This is ridiculous. How are prognosticators supposed to do our jobs if we get a break so late it makes Mike Huckabee look like an early frontrunner? Seriously, Iowa, simmer down now. All I know is Ron Paul isn’t winning. Beyond that, anything’s possible.
Remember 2004? Insurgent Democrat Howard Dean uses a rash of young people online to raise surprising sums of money and gather incredible “buzz” for his candidacy. And yet he drops to third in Iowa, then second in New Hampshire. He would not go on to California, and Texas, and New York, nor would he take the White House. Now between the PPP poll I covered | Read More »
I’ve been telling people PPP’s polling Iowa was making nonsense predictions. The pollster has doubled down. I’m going way out on a limb here, and if the actual results refudiate what I’m saying then I’m going to have to take some taunting, but I just don’t see how this poll remotely reflects reality, and I’m flatly saying it’s not predictive of the caucus results.
It doesn’t matter what you think the new Public Policy Polling result says. It doesn’t matter how many gleeful Democrats are writing up news stories claiming it’s true. It’s not. Ron Paul, King of Earmarks, Full Metal Truther, and Archbishop of the anti-American Gnostic Constitutionalists, is not going to win the Iowa caucuses or even get close for one simple reason. He wins people who | Read More »
Let’s imagine a Republican National Convention with no majority nominee on the first ballot. How do we think the first ballot will wind up? There are only so many candidates that are capable of getting enough delegates to stop that, so I expect the delegate count would wind up in the neighborhood of Newt Gingrich 40%, Mitt Romney 40%, Rick Perry 10%, Ron Paul 5%, | Read More »
It always pleases me when two polls taken close together have very similar results. Even if they make out to be wrong some speculation of mine. So yes, it’s looking like Herman Cain isn’t exactly being helped this week. And if the new Rasmussen poll is genuinely showing a trend from the previous national poll, then he needs this story done as soon as possible. | Read More »
Before the cold that really took me down since Friday (to explain my silence since), we checked in on the pre-debate polling for Herman Cain’s first debate as a major contender. It turns out that Cain’s momentum had taken him even further ahead of the Tuesday debate, though post-debate polling suggests he took at hit in the national audience.
I’m not too surprised when I see Herman Cain doing better than Rick Perry in recent polling, but I was surprised to see Ron Paul beating Rick Perry in NBC’s new poll of Iowa. So, I started getting ready to post… and found out there’s more than meets the eye here. Caucuses are apparently hard to poll.
First it was one national poll, and we could wait and see. Then it was a pair of state polls, and we could hold on for one more national poll. But after the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, there’s no denying it. For now we have a three way Republican Presidential race between Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain.
A couple of debates ago we looked at where the Republican Presidential primary stood nationally. Since then we’ve seen Mitt Romney surge, presumably as the anti-Rick Perry candidate. But will Perry himself tumble after widely criticized debate efforts? Let’s check the new CNN poll.
Last time around, Mitt Romney took a blow when he took ‘silver’ in his neighboring state New Hampshire, losing to the man who’d been plotting to win the state since the last contested primary there, John McCain. This time it looks like Romney is going to repeat the McCain strategy. By never having given up on the state since November 2008, Romney looks set to | Read More »
The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from. Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.
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